Cleveland @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Austin Hedges ranks in the 0th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Austin Hedges is penciled in 9th on the lineup card today. 63% of the time that Austin Hedges has started against a northpaw this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the 3rd-worst venue in the game for righty base hits. The Tropicana Field roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching.

The #3 venue in baseball for suppressing base hits to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field. The Tropicana Field roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching. Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Steven Kwan in today's matchup. Steven Kwan's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined recently, going from 46.2% on the season to 37.5% in the past 7 days. Steven Kwan has been lucky this year, putting up a .407 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .311 — a .096 disparity.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the 3rd-worst venue in the game for righty base hits. The Tropicana Field roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching. Carlos Carrasco will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yandy Diaz in today's game. The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the 2nd-best among every team playing today. Yandy Diaz is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#2-best of all teams on the slate).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 88th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Jose Siri pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.5% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Jose Siri will hold that advantage today. Jose Siri has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.6-mph average to last season's 94-mph average. In the past 14 days, Jose Siri's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 96.6-mph over the course of the season to 98.8-mph recently.

Richie Palacios will have the handedness advantage over Carlos Carrasco in today's matchup. Richie Palacios is apt to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Cleveland Guardians only has 1 same-handed RP. Richie Palacios pulls many of his flyballs (35.3% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Richie Palacios will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Richie Palacios has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .309 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .326 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Freeman in the 90th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest left field fences among all major league parks. Tyler Freeman has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 87.8-mph average to last season's 85.8-mph mark. Tyler Freeman has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .216 figure is significantly deflated relative to his .244 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. In terms of plate discipline, Tyler Freeman's skill is quite impressive, sporting a 1.97 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 76th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Ramirez in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Jose Ramirez is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game. The switch-hitting Jose Ramirez will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Taj Bradley. Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Jose Ramirez has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 101.1-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal average of 90.8-mph.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Randy Arozarena is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Randy Arozarena will hold that advantage today. Randy Arozarena has made big improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 9% seasonal rate to 15.2% in the last two weeks. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Randy Arozarena's true offensive ability to be a .343, indicating that he has been unlucky this year given the .041 gap between that mark and his actual .302 wOBA.

Angel Martinez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Angel Martinez pulls many of his flyballs (34.3% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Angel Martinez has been hot in recent games, tallying a .395 wOBA over the past 14 days. Over the last two weeks, Angel Martinez's swing has been well optimized for home runs, notching a 22.7% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today. Batting from the opposite that Carlos Carrasco throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an advantage in today's game. The Cleveland Guardians have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Lowe stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Brandon Lowe will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Andres Gimenez's batting average talent is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Among all major league parks, Tropicana Field's RF dimensions are the 5th-shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Andres Gimenez will have an advantage in today's matchup. Andres Gimenez has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 91.1-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 86.1-mph EV. Andres Gimenez's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, rising from 46.3% on the season to 55.3% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

Isaac Paredes is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (46% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Isaac Paredes will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Isaac Paredes has made notable gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 6.2% seasonal rate to 19.4% over the past 14 days. Last season, Isaac Paredes had an average launch angle of 18° on his hardest-hit balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 22.1°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Brennan in the 87th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Batting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Will Brennan will have an advantage in today's matchup. Will Brennan has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 90-mph average to last season's 87.8-mph EV. Will Brennan's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (13.2°) is significantly better than his 7.8° mark last season. When it comes to his batting average, Will Brennan has been unlucky this year. His .252 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .270.

Jhonkensy Noel is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest left field fences among all major league parks. Over the past two weeks, Jhonkensy Noel's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 23.5% up to 20%. Jhonkensy Noel has hit one of the hardest balls in the game in the last two weeks' worth of games — 115.4-mph — which is a good proxy for recent form and raw power.

Among all major league parks, Tropicana Field's RF dimensions are the 5th-shallowest. Ben Rortvedt will have the handedness advantage over Carlos Carrasco today. Ben Rortvedt will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Ben Rortvedt has notched a .281 batting average this year, placing in the 84th percentile.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Alex Jackson will hold that advantage today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Alex Jackson's true offensive ability to be a .275, suggesting that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .156 difference between that figure and his actual .119 wOBA.

Hitting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Daniel Schneemann will have an edge in today's matchup. Daniel Schneemann's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better of late, increasing from 19.2% on the season to 25% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

Among all major league parks, Tropicana Field's RF dimensions are the 5th-shallowest. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage in today's game. Last year, Taylor Walls had an average launch angle of 17.3° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 24.1°.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.