Toronto @ Cleveland Picks & Props

When starting against a righty on the mound this year, Spencer Horwitz has been pinch hit for 10% of the time. The Cleveland Guardians infield defense grades out as the 3rd-best out of all the teams today. Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Spencer Horwitz today. This year, there has been a decline in Spencer Horwitz's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.05 ft/sec last year to 24.05 ft/sec currently. Notching a lowly an 85.7-mph average exit velocity over the last two weeks, Spencer Horwitz has been in a slump of late.

Yusei Kikuchi will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Steven Kwan in today's matchup. Steven Kwan has been lucky this year, putting up a .437 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .311 — a .126 disparity.

As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the dish, Jose Ramirez will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side against Yusei Kikuchi in today's game. In the past 7 days, Jose Ramirez's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.3% down to 0%. From last year to this one, Jose Ramirez's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes BABIP (-4° to 26°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 44.3% to 33.6%. Jose Ramirez's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased lately, decreasing from 33.6% on the season to 20.7% in the last two weeks. Jose Ramirez has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .358 figure is quite a bit higher than his .328 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Hitting from the same side that Triston McKenzie throws from, Isiah Kiner-Falefa will be in a tough position in today's matchup. The Cleveland Guardians infield defense grades out as the 3rd-best out of all the teams today. Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Isiah Kiner-Falefa in today's game. Isiah Kiner-Falefa's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 88.6-mph figure last year has lowered to 85.9-mph. Isiah Kiner-Falefa's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased in recent games; his 85.9-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 80.9-mph over the past 7 days.

In today's matchup, Tyler Freeman is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.3% rate (82nd percentile). Tyler Freeman's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off of late; his 90.1-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 77.4-mph in the past 7 days. Tyler Freeman has recorded a .285 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 24th percentile. Checking in at the 8th percentile, Tyler Freeman has posted a .229 BABIP this year.

Hitting from the same side that Triston McKenzie throws from, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will have a disadvantage in today's matchup. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 7th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup. The Cleveland Guardians infield defense grades out as the 3rd-best out of all the teams today. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s launch angle this season (5.6°) is quite a bit lower than his 10.2° angle last season.

Progressive Field grades out as the #8 field in Major League Baseball for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). In MLB, Progressive Field's LF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which tends to lead to more offense. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.9-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters. The switch-hitting Brayan Rocchio will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Yusei Kikuchi.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. George Springer is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. Progressive Field grades out as the #8 field in Major League Baseball for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). In MLB, Progressive Field's LF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which tends to lead to more offense.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Davis Schneider ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Progressive Field grades out as the #8 field in Major League Baseball for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which tends to lead to more offense. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.9-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters. Davis Schneider pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Johnathan Rodriguez in the 90th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Progressive Field grades out as the #8 field in Major League Baseball for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). In MLB, Progressive Field's LF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which tends to lead to more offense. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.9-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.

Justin Turner is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Progressive Field grades out as the #8 field in Major League Baseball for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). In MLB, Progressive Field's LF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which tends to lead to more offense. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.9-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, David Fry ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). David Fry is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. Progressive Field grades out as the #8 field in Major League Baseball for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which tends to lead to more offense. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.9-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.

Progressive Field grades out as the #8 field in Major League Baseball for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which tends to lead to more offense. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.9-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters. Danny Jansen pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.2% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. There has been a significant improvement in Danny Jansen's launch angle from last year's 19.5° to 23.4° this season.

Andres Gimenez's batting average talent is projected to be in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Progressive Field as the 8th-best park in the majors for LHB base hits. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which tends to lead to more offense. Andres Gimenez will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. In terms of his batting average, Andres Gimenez has been unlucky this year. His .249 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .272.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Progressive Field as the 8th-best park in the majors for LHB base hits. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which tends to lead to more offense. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.9-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Daniel Schneemann will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Daniel Schneemann has been zeroed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits lately, angling balls between -4° and 26° 66.7% of the time over the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Progressive Field as the 8th-best park in the majors for LHB base hits. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which tends to lead to more offense. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.9-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters. Hitting from the opposite that Triston McKenzie throws from, Kevin Kiermaier will have an edge today. Extreme groundball batters like Kevin Kiermaier generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Triston McKenzie.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Progressive Field as the 8th-best park in the majors for LHB base hits. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which tends to lead to more offense. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.9-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters. Hitting from the opposite that Triston McKenzie throws from, Addison Barger will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Addison Barger has hit one of the hardest balls in the league in the last week — 109.5-mph — which is a strong measure of recent form and raw power.

Daulton Varsho has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Ernie Clement has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.