Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 1, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
CHW
@
BAL
Wed, Jul 1 • 12:35 PM ET
TEX
@
CLE
Wed, Jul 1 • 1:10 PM ET
WAS
@
BOS
Wed, Jul 1 • 1:35 PM ET
DET
@
NYY
Wed, Jul 1 • 1:35 PM ET
u9.5 (-105)
Melton’s profile is built to suppress the kind of loud contact New York needs to break out. His 88.7 mph average exit velocity allowed, 6.4% barrel rate, and .287 xwOBA allowed are all strong enough to keep the Yankees from breaking from this offensive slup.
Warren is the concern, but he has cut his barrel rate to 7.2% this season and faces a Detroit offense averaging only 4.19 runs per game. I make this closer to 8.4 runs.
DET (+124)
Melton has a 3.36 expected ERA, .223 expected BA, 6.4% barrel rate, and 33.0% hard-hit rate. That hard-hit rate in particular stands out. It's in the top 15th percentile of the sport, and a New York Yankees lineup that has been reliant on the longball has only become more reliant on it lately.
Will Warren is not a bad starter, but his reputation supersedes his reality. His 4.11 xERA and .398 xSLG allowed more room for Detroit to create offense. Play to +100.
SD
@
CHC
Wed, Jul 1 • 2:20 PM ET
NYM
@
TOR
Wed, Jul 1 • 3:07 PM ET
At +475, this three-leg same-game parlay backs Okamoto over 1.5 total bases, Lukes to record a hit after doing so in three of his past five games and drawing a favourable matchup with Peralta, and the Blue Jays moneyline, as Toronto looks to build on last season’s success and its current momentum in the Canada Day rubber match.
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Bases (-175)
PIT
@
PHI
Wed, Jul 1 • 6:40 PM ET
Zack Wheeler o7.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+114)
Zack Wheeler is one of the most reliable strikeout arms in baseball, backed by elite ratings and steady swing-and-miss production. In elite rated starts, he clears 6+ strikeouts 88.24% of the time, reaches 7+ 70.59% of the time, and gets to 8+ in 60% of those outings. He also carries a 29% strikeout rate at home this season. Tonight he faces a Pirates lineup that has been highly strikeout prone, over 30% in recent games and above 26% over the last six. With that matchup and his consistency, 8+ strikeouts at plus money is a strong look for the bet.
o7.5 (-117)
Zack Wheeler's strikeout rate is at a five-year low (8.8 per nine innings), and being able to fan this powerful Pirates lineup is crucial. Pittsburgh is sixth in Ks over the last two weeks but also first in OPS and third in homers. The Pirates' second-ranked 9.1% barrel rate over the last 30 days is also a cause for alarm for Wheeler, who's in the 60th percentile in barrel rate. The Phillies bullpen is sixth in WAR over the last month yet is middle-of-the-road in terms of homers allowed per nine innings (1.26, 15th) and HR/FB ratio (14%, 19th).
STL
@
ATL
Wed, Jul 1 • 7:15 PM ET
Michael McGreevy has quietly been one of the more reliable starters lately, posting a 3.74 FIP while allowing two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. With Atlanta carrying a 29 wRC+ over its last five games, his command and run prevention both project favorably tonight.
TB
@
KC
Wed, Jul 1 • 7:40 PM ET
Junior Caminero enters this matchup in remarkable form, carrying a .955 ISO, seven home runs, and a 33.3% barrel rate over his last six games. He's also batting .455 over the past week and owns two career home runs against Seth Lugo, making both props align with his recent production.
MIN
@
HOU
Wed, Jul 1 • 8:10 PM ET
CIN
@
MIL
Wed, Jul 1 • 8:10 PM ET
o8.5 (-126)
Milwaukee's lineup is well positioned to capitalize against Andrew Abbott, while both bullpens enter in shaky form. The Brewers' relievers own a 5.22 xERA over the last week, and Cincinnati's bullpen has posted a 7.96 FIP, creating multiple paths for late offense and a higher-scoring game.
MIL -1.5 (+134)
Shane Drohan has quietly pitched well, limiting hard contact while allowing just 0.96 home runs per nine innings over his last two starts. Andrew Abbott's recent struggles and Milwaukee's 140 wRC+ over the last six games create a favorable matchup for the Brewers to continue their offensive surge.
MIA
@
COL
Wed, Jul 1 • 8:40 PM ET
LAD
@
ATH
Wed, Jul 1 • 9:40 PM ET
J.T. Ginn o3.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+122)
The Dodgers offense is red hot with elite underlying numbers and four top tier bats, and they draw a vulnerable J.T. Ginn who has struggled at home with a 4.32 xERA and 1.62 WHIP. With LA producing at a massive clip over the last week, the angle is on their team total over 4 plus runs or the cleaner first five team total over at plus money.
SF
@
AZ
Wed, Jul 1 • 9:40 PM ET
Zac Gallen u3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-103)
The Giants bring a disciplined, contact-heavy approach that limits strikeouts, with only a few bats above a 26% strikeout rate in recent plate appearances versus right-handed pitching. Several key hitters sit under 20%, with multiple below 13.3%, and Luis Arraez has not struck out in that span. On the mound, Zac Gallen has struggled significantly, posting a 5.27 ERA and 1.46 WHIP at home this season. Over his last three starts, he has been even worse with a 9.18 ERA and 1.68 WHIP, along with a low strikeout rate in recent outings. The matchup favors contact and fading Gallen.
MIL
@
STL
Tue, Jul 7 • 2:15 PM ET
AZ
@
STL
Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET
o2.5 Team Total (-115)
The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.
Zac Gallen o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-141)
Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.
TOR
@
CHC
Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer.
Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
o8.5 (-105)
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
ATL (-112)
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
o8.5 (-110)
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
NYY (-135)
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
o7.5 (-116)
SF (+124)
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
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