MLB Picks

Mets righty Kodai Senga sports a 5.12 xERA ranking in the 17th percentile and has negative pitch values on three of his most frequent four offerings, and the Cubs are rolling at the plate. Chicago paces the majors in wOBA while ranking fifth in ISO and fourth in xwOBA across their past nine games. I also expect the Mets to chip in offensively. New York ranks 21st in BABIP despite a 10th-ranked xwOBA to go along with a fifth-ranked hard-hit rate across the past 30 days, after all.

The #1 venue in the majors for boosting home runs to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Hitting from the opposite that Nick Lodolo throws from, Joey Ortiz will have an edge today.. Joey Ortiz has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

The Chicago White Sox have posted high-end metrics across the board against left-handed pitching. They have also hit more homers than anybody.

Even without Jose Ramirez and Chase DeLauter, the Cleveland Guardians have scored at least three runs in five of their last six games. They should still chip in.

Play the Over to -130.

Justin Wrobleski continues to thrive for Los Angeles, posting a 2.72 ERA and walking just 0.76 hitters per nine innings over his last four appearances. Minnesota's bullpen owns a 5.50 FIP and has allowed 2.08 home runs per nine innings over the last two weeks, and they will start an opener here. 

Iván Herrera stands out as strong value on his total bases prop tonight, with a smaller home run sprinkle also in play at around 7 to 1. The Cardinals DH has been locked in recently, hitting .333 with a 1.100 OPS, backed by a 43.6% hard hit rate and 7.7% barrel rate over his last 60 plate appearances against left handed pitching. He draws Eduardo Rodríguez, who has shown real vulnerability on the road to right handed hitters, allowing consistent hard contact and elevated contact quality over his last 60 batters faced. Herrera’s strong matchup profile and pitch coverage make his bases prop appealing in this spot.

The #1 venue in the game for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation among all parks. High elevation generally leads to higher offensive output.. The weather forecast forecasts the best hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Connor Wong will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sean Sullivan today.. The Colorado Rockies infield defense profiles as the 6th-weakest out of every team in action today.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Taylor Ward ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Taylor Ward is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.. Angel Stadium has the lowest fences among all stadiums.. The Los Angeles Angels infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among all the teams in action today.. Putting up a 92.6-mph average exit velocity in the last 14 days, Taylor Ward has been in great form of late.

JR Ritchie has struggled lately, posting a 6.70 FIP and 46.2% hard-hit rate over his last 10 innings while carrying a 5.24 road FIP. Griffin Canning has been much better at Petco Park, and Atlanta's offense enters cold with just a .120 ISO over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Shea Langeliers as the league's 16th-best home run hitter.. Shea Langeliers is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 20.7-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Batting from the opposite that Robbie Ray throws from, Shea Langeliers will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Among all the teams today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the the San Francisco Giants.

The Cubs are heating up at the dish with a fifth-ranked wOBA, ISO and xwOBA over the past two weeks while averaging 5.7 runs per game. Chicago lefty Shota Imanaga has also flipped the script with just a single run allowed and opposing hitters limited to a miniscule 19.3% squared-up contact rate and 3.5% blast contact rate across 10 2/3 innings over his past two starts. The Cubbies should also have their way with struggling New York Mets righty Kodai Senga. His 5.12 xERA ranks in the 17th percentile, and he has negative pitch values on three of his most frequent four offerings, after all.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.