MLB Picks

Anchored by rising stars Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart, the Reds lead the majors in exit velocity while ranking fifth in barrel rate. Today they take on Texas and Mackenzie Gore who generates strikes but gives up too much hard contact. The lefty was in the 20th percentile in barrel rate and exit velocity last year while posting a 4.33 xERA. Reds starter Brady Singer had an almost identical 4.27 xERA last and he allowed three runs in four innings in his 2026 debut. I don't trust him to navigate a Rangers lineup that is sixth in the majors in runs per game (5.33) and third in hard-hit rate.

Josh Jung is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.. The #1 venue in baseball for suppressing batting average to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Globe Life Field.. Brady Singer will hold the platoon advantage against Josh Jung in today's matchup... and it's an over-sized mismatch considering Singer's huge platoon split.. Josh Jung hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.. Among every team playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.

There’s a compelling case for the Under, which was a winning ticket in four of the last five meetings between these teams – and in all three of Cleveland’s matchups with the defending champs in L.A. this week, including a 4-1 victory on Wednesday.

With two quality starters on the mound, don’t count on the scoring getting out of hand, especially as the Guardians have a batting average of .189 through their first seven games. The hosts should have the hot bat of Chase DeLauter available again this afternoon, but I see Horton putting the clamps on Jose Ramirez and Co.

If you’re looking for a free-scoring offense, the Cubs are a good pick. They finished fifth in runs scored in 2025 and, boosted by Alex Bregman’s arrival, they’ve piled up 30 runs through their opening six contests this year. It also helps that Cade Horton is taking the ball today. He’s posted a 1.75 ERA across his past five starts, including a steady effort in his first outing of 2026.

Chicago swept Cleveland when the teams squared off last summer, with Horton pitching seven scoreless innings in one of those victories, and it’s easier to trust the visitors’ lineup here.

Getting the YRFI at -122 in a game at Coors Field is a bargain and today's pitching matchup suggests we'll get plenty of runs. Phillies righty Aaron Nola is coming off his worst season as a pro (6.01 ERA over 17 starts) and allowed five runs in five innings in his first outing this year. Colorado is giving the pill to Michael Lorenzon who surrendered seven hits and three runs in 4 1/3 innings in his season debut. Lorenzon had a 4.64 ERA with Kansas City last year and his subpar ground ball rate and exit velocity suggest he'll struggle at Coors. Especially against a hard-hitting Phillies lineup with some big bats at the top of the order.

Schwarber already has two homers this season, and he's 9-for-24 lifetime with two bombs against Michael Lorenzen. The slugger also left the yard twice at Coors Field in 2025. 

Trevor Larnach is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup.. The 9th-deepest CF fences in the league are found in Target Field.. Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the coldest temperature on the slate at 41°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for mound aces.. Since the start of last season, Trevor Larnach's flyball exit velocity (a reliable metric to study power) is in the 22nd percentile at 90.5 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Junior Caminero is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 5th-best ballpark in the league for run-scoring.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of all the teams today.. Junior Caminero has hit one of the hardest balls in MLB in the last two weeks — 116.9-mph — which is a favorable indicator of recent form and raw power.

Oneil Cruz projects as the 12th-best home run hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 3rd-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Bradish throws from, Oneil Cruz will have an advantage in today's game.. Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Ward in the 92nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Taylor Ward is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 3rd-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.. Taylor Ward's 13.5% Barrel% (an advanced standard to evaluate power) ranks in the 86th percentile since the start of last season.

Kansas City bats are off to a bit of a slow start, ranking 16th in OPS and 17th in wRC+, and face a Brewers bullpen that ranks second in xFIP.

The Brew Crew enter this game ranked third in both wRC+ and OPS and have plated six or more runs in five of their six games this season, going against Royals prospect Luinder Avila.

The  Mariners mashed away from home last season, posting 5.09 runs per game. Expect that same production as they begin their first road trip this year. The M's retained Josh Naylor while adding leadoff man Brendan Donovan to a lineup anchored by MVP runner-up Cal Raleigh and Randy Arozarena. They'll have success against Angels lefty Reid Detmers who has been shaky as a starter and is better out of the bullpen. Detmers didn't make a single start last year but had a 6.70 ERA in 17 starts in 2024. He started last Saturday and gave up three runs in 4 2/3 frames.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Naylor in the 11th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Reid Detmers will have the handedness advantage against Josh Naylor in today's game.. Playing on the road generally weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Josh Naylor in today's matchup.. Josh Naylor's quickness has declined this season. His 24.42 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 21.54 ft/sec now.. Josh Naylor has been optimizing his launch angle on his hardest hit balls quite poorly in recent games, compiling a -1° angle on such balls in the last two weeks.

Yordan Alvarez looks like his old self and is now hitting .417 with a 1.480 OPS, three dingers and six RBIs for the season. He also has reverse splits vs. left-handed pitchers, so don't worry about the matchup vs. Springs.

Langeliers leads the big leagues in home runs with five, and he's gone deep in all but two games so far. The Athletics face Cristian Javier tonight, who allowed two bombs in his season debut. 

Arizona could also score some runs against Atlanta starter Grant Holmes. His fastball's effectiveness was in the bottom 8% of pitchers last year, and he struggled giving up hard-hit balls and walking too many batters.

Holmes took a loss in his first start of the year, giving up seven baserunners and three runs in five innings to the Royals. He's allowed nine runs in nine innings in two career starts against Arizona.

The Braves are hitting better against southpaws (.286/.392/.476) than right-handers (.279/.347/.459) this season. 

Three Atlanta players have a career OPS over 1.000 against Rodriguez, and Matt Olson (.971) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (.833) just missed.

Juan Soto is 4-for-11 with a double and two dingers in his career vs. Tyler Mahle, good for a .338 expected batting average and a .976 expected slugging.

These two offenses have had a slow start to the season, and a matchup at the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park likely results in a low-scoring game. 

The Giants have an 80 wRC+ en route to a 2-3-2 O/U record, while the Mets have an 88 wRC+ and are 2-5 O/U. 

Both bullpens have a SIERA under 3.90 and have most of their best arms well-rested. They’re throwing behind starting pitchers projected to have an ERA below 4.00 this season.