MLB Picks

Remain calm. This is not a drill. After two months of absolute raking, I thought the days of getting Pete Crow-Armstrong for a home run at +500 or better were long gone. I've had a price point of +300 or better to bet him, so when I saw +500 today, I had to do a double-take. This is setting up like yesterday's game, with PCA facing a lefty opener, which is driving his odds up because of the lefty-vs.-lefty matchup. Well, even with a lefty opener last night, the MVP betting favorite opened the bottom of the first with a leadoff homer at +330. So how is Sean Newcomb making his price almost 200 points longer? The wind is in at Wrigley, but nothing crazy enough to justify the prices we're seeing today. I will back the MVP at +330 or better in almost any matchup.

Wilyer Abreu is seeing the ball very well. Isolating Brandon Pfaadt’s pitch mix, Abreu's hitting .345 with a .379 ISO and leading the Red Sox in barrel rate over the last 15 games.

He hit at least eight balls 350+ feet during that span, more than double that of any other teammate. 

Bet to +375.

Griffin Conine is primarily a price play tonight, with his hit prop available as low as -140 against Aaron Nola. The Marlins outfielder ranks as the No. 1-rated hitter on Batters-Box's current-season dataset and has recorded a hit in 61.54% of his 26 elite-rated matchups this season. Conine has been scorching the baseball lately, posting an .833 SLG and .433 ISO over his last 10 games while generating nearly a 60% hard-hit rate and 22.7% barrel rate. Nola has struggled against lefties at home, allowing a .314 BA, .583 SLG, and .407 wOBA. The hit prop is playable to -160.

Pete Alonso has been absolutely mashing over his last 10 games, posting a .947 SLG, .824 xSLG and .447 ISO while generating a 65.6% hard-hit rate and 22% barrel rate. He also owns an elite Batters-Box rating, going over this prop in 68.33% of his 60 elite-rated matchups over the last three seasons. Tonight, Alonso faces Yankees right-hander Will Warren, who has allowed plenty of hard contact to right-handed hitters recently. That group has produced a 56% hard-hit rate, 9.3% barrel rate and .358 ISO against him. This matchup is simply too good to ignore.

Drew Rasmussen is a great pitcher, but he's a great pitcher with an 88-pitch average leash over his last 10 games and has seen the Blue Jays three times this season. He's hit the Over 17.5 outs at a 61% clip over the last three months but is priced at 66% probable today in a matchup that should be tougher than average. The Jays don't strike out a lot and can run up pitch counts. Yesterday, I faded Nick Martinez in a similar spot at plus money for a winner, and I'm going back to the well today. The Rays also used just two bullpen arms yesterday, so there could be plenty of fresh arms available to cover the fifth and sixth innings. I'd play this down to +120. Rasmussen has thrown more than 90 pitches just four times over his last 10 starts, and this lineup is very familiar with him.

The Giants are rolling out a big lefty in Matt Wilkinson, who is making his MLB debut. He’s a 2023 10th-round pick who started the season in rookie ball but also gave up seven homers over 43 innings at Triple-A before the promotion. All of those home runs came against right-handed bats, and Jo Adell is one of only two true right-handed hitters in the Cleveland lineup. Adell did exit last night’s game with knee pain, but there’s reason to be optimistic about his chances of getting into the lineup. He was pulled with Cleveland well ahead, 8-1, after going 3-for-4 with a homer and six RBI. He initially injured the knee fouling a ball off it in the first inning. Hopefully it was just precautionary as he’s heating up for the Guardians, and +575 is simply too long. The fair price is +475 today.

Seattle projects as a 52% favorite today, and that likely isn't pricing in one of the best motivating factors in professional sports: the humiliation factor. The Mariners are trading at 47 cents after getting crushed 22-0 last night, tying the modern MLB record for the largest shutout margin.
The Mariners had to watch Gary Sánchez, their catcher, finish the game on the mound, which is about as big an insult as you can get in baseball. Professional players have pride, and when that's taken away, you can get the most motivated version of a team. Seattle also has the pitching edge with Logan Gilbert facing Dustin May. Seattle's A bullpen also hasn't been touched since Sunday, giving them a significant late-game advantage.
With the Mariners three games back in the Wild Card and coming off that humiliating defeat, this should be one of the most focused and motivated lineups we've seen from Seattle all year. Which is worth an extra 10-15 points that isn't priced in.

The Angels are worth backing as underdogs with Walbert Urena owning a fantastic 0.71 ERA across four appearances vs Houston this season. The Astros counter with Ethan Pecko, who'll make his MLB debut. He has an unimpressive 4.57 ERA in the minors and had a five-walk outing in his latest Triple-A start. Los Angeles has gone 5-2 behind a bullpen ranking in the top seven in ERA and FIP over the last week.

Kyle Freeland has gotten crushed by quality offenses all season long. He has posted an abysmal 10.85 ERA and allowed 2.91 HR/9 over seven starts vs. Top-10 offenses in ISO against left-handed pitching.

The Colorado Rockies are a very good offense at home – it’s hard not to be – and they won’t need to score much to push this total Over.

Play to -115.

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.