The United States are into the knockout stage of the 2026 World Cup, but the market has cooled slightly after a messy finish to Group D.
The Americans opened with a dominant 4-1 win over Paraguay, followed it with a professional 2-0 victory over Australia, and still finished top of Group D despite a 3-2 loss to Turkey in the group finale. That result did not kill the U.S. outlook, but it did add some needed skepticism before the knockout rounds.
Before making your World Cup picks, let's break down the latest USA World Cup odds, updated knockout-stage outlook, and whether there's still betting value available as the Americans prepare for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
United States World Cup odds 2026
Odds as of 6-30. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
USA World Cup odds quick take
- Best bet: USA to advance vs. Bosnia
- Most realistic outcome: Round of 16
- Ceiling: Quarterfinal appearance
- Biggest concern: Defensive lapses against better transition teams
The United States did the job in Group D, even if the 3-2 loss to Turkey made the finish uglier than it needed to be. The Americans beat Paraguay 4-1, handled Australia 2-0, and still topped the group, which is all that matters from a bracket-path perspective. Their World Cup-winning chances remain long, but the immediate path in the World Cup bracket is manageable with Bosnia and Herzegovina up next.
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United States vs Bosnia odds (July 1)
USA
BosniaOdds courtesy of Kalshi.
The United States topped Group D with six points, but the final impression was not perfect after conceding three goals in a loss to Turkey. That matters because knockout soccer punishes lapses, and Bosnia and Herzegovina have enough direct attacking quality to make this uncomfortable if the Americans are loose defensively.
Still, the U.S. are deserved favorites. They controlled the two group matches they needed to win, have home-field support, and should own the ball against a Bosnia side likely to defend deep, lean on set pieces, and try to stretch the game through Edin Dzeko, Ermedin Demirovic, and Esmir Bajraktarevic.
United States World Cup schedule
- Friday, June 12 vs. Paraguay (Los Angeles Stadium) — Won 4-1
- Friday, June 19 vs. Australia (Seattle Stadium) — Won 2-0
- Thursday, June 25 vs. Turkey (Los Angeles Stadium) — Lost 3-2
- Wednesday, July 1 vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina (San Francisco Bay Area Stadium) — Round of 32
More 2026 World Cup Betting odds
- Canada 2026 World Cup odds
- World Cup picks
- World Cup 2026 odds
- Golden Ball predictions
- Golden Boot odds
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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USA 2026 World Cup Odds FAQ
The USA will face Paraguay, Australia, and Turkey.
The USA is currently sitting at +2757 to win the 2026 World Cup.
The USA's first 2026 World Cup game is Friday, June 12 against Paraguay.
Christian Pulisic remains the focal point of the American attack and will be crucial to the team's chances of making a deep run on home soil.
