Saturday’s final Premier League game is a David and Goliath battle. Norwich City, stuck in the relegation zone, welcome the reigning Premier League champions Manchester City to town.
Man City are nine points clear of Liverpool, inching ever closer to regaining their title. Will they march on or will Norwich pull off an upset and leap out of the relegation zone? Don’t miss our Norwich vs. Man City tips and predictions.
Norwich City vs Manchester City match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Norwich City vs Manchester City betting tips
Predictions made on 2/10/2022 at 6:20 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Norwich City vs Manchester City game info
• Location: Carrow Road, Norwich, England
• Date: Saturday, February 12, 2022
• Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC
Norwich City vs Manchester City betting preview
Weather
The temperature will be in the mid-40s when the game kicks off at 5:30 p.m. local time. There’ll be quite strong winds and rain is likely to begin to fall at some point after kick-off.
Injuries
Norwich City: No injuries to report.
Manchester City: No injuries to report.
Norwich City vs Manchester City predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Side analysis
The Premier League is in rude health. It’s the most popular league in the world with good reason but its gulf between the haves and have-nots has never been bigger. One game this weekend that epitomizes this perfectly is Norwich City vs. Man City, as there are already 43 points between the two clubs in the Premier League table.
Man City are nine points clear of second-placed Liverpool and Pep Guardiola’s team is cruising to another Premier League title. The difference between them and the pack is big enough that their hands are already moving towards the handles on the trophy. It’s hard to see any way that a squad with so much depth — they have two players of immense quality in every position — will mess things up enough for either Liverpool or Chelsea to take advantage.
Norwich City, meanwhile, are fighting for their lives. Heading into this gameweek, they sat in 18th, one point behind Newcastle and two behind Everton. They’re going to believe that safety is potentially within their grasp and it’s starting to feel like the great escape could be on.
Dean Smith’s arrival in Norwich has been a huge boost for the Canaries. He was unfortunate to find himself sacked from Aston Villa, the team’s form was poor but they had just sold their talisman Jack Grealish and were trying to bed in a host of new signings. Smith has shown he’s a good coach and I’d have been confident in him turning it around at Villa. He was quick to take the new role and although some, myself included, thought he might have jumped into a new job too soon, it’s clear he made the right choice, and the team s benefiting from it.
Smith won his first game in charge of Norwich and has won three of his 12 Premier League games so far, including two of the past three. In that spell, he’s only lost six games. That might be half of all Norwich’s games but that’s still a stark improvement that could see them escape relegation.
He sets up his Norwich team in a 4-4-2 formation and keeps the banks of four tight and compact. They’re not packed with stars but they work very hard and it seems like they’re becoming more than the sum of their parts under Smith.
We know how Guardiola will set up his City team. They’ll be in their customary 4-3-3, a formation that has served them well this season. The backline usually stays consistent, the midfield has some question marks and the front three will, as usual, be subjected to ‘Pep-roulette’ with any of their talented forwards able to play as part of that attacking trident.
Man City are -600 favorites, which implies a probability of 85.7% that they leave Carrow Road with three points. I wouldn’t blame anybody for not betting on something as short as -600 but in all likelihood, it’ll land. There’s an outside chance of a draw, something that would be a huge, unexpected bonus for Norwich, but Man City are too big and too talented to drop silly points here.
It's not fun — and it’s certainly not brave — but it’s hard to look beyond -600 favorites Man City.
Prediction: Man City (-600)
Over/Under analysis
Whenever sportbooks price up Man City, they always overestimate how many goals will be scored. This City team is capable of smashing anybody but they’re perhaps not as free-flowing as some of Guardiola’s previous City teams and can sometimes fail to heavily beat weaker opponents. This can be evidenced in Man City games on the road being split exactly 50/50 with six Over 2.5 goals and six Under 2.5 goals.
The Under has only landed in 43.5% of Norwich’s home games this season but it’s worth noting that since Smith's arrival, that’s been flipped with Under 2.5 goals hitting in four of the seven home games under his stewardship. He’s got this team playing smart and conservatively and the Under carries big value at +175.
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals (+175)
Best bet
For all the talk of Man City’s attack, it’s the defense that is arguably their best asset. City's domination of possession typically sucks the energy out of their opposition. They’ve conceded just 14 goals this season — the fewest in the league — and I’m confident they’ll keep a clean sheet against a Norwich team who have scored fewer goals than anybody else in the league.
The best value you can get on a Manchester City win this weekend is backing them to win to nil, a price that is far more generous and one that is really worth taking.
Pick: Man City win to nil (+100)
