Germany begin their World Cup campaign Sunday as one of the tournament's biggest favorites, taking on a Curacao side making just its second-ever appearance on soccer's biggest stage.
While few expect an upset at NRG Stadium, the betting value may not be found in backing Germany to win. My Germany vs. Curacao predictions instead focus on whether the Germans can deliver an early knockout blow, and I'm not convinced they'll have the match wrapped up by halftime.
Read on for my World Cup picks for Sunday, June 14, with kickoff at 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
TOP PICK
Who will win Germany vs Curacao: Curacao +3.5 goals (-108)
Germany wins this game, but the odds aren’t worth betting on. Instead, we’re backing Curacao to outperform expectations against a German team, who don’t have the confidence of the German public at home.
With Aleksandar Pavlovic and Felix Nmecha, they have a real downgrade in the center of midfield compared to previous years, and that lack of spark will see them struggle to break down the low block of Dick Advocaat’s team.
The standard in Concacaf might be one of the worst qualification pools, but Curacao gave up just five goals in 10 qualifying games.
They’ve got this far off the back of a tight defense, and with Tahith Chong, they have a player who offers real speed, which will allow them to spring at Germany on the counterattack.
That won’t be enough to win, but it might help them get a single goal, or at least stop Germany from overcommitting forward.
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Germany vs Curacao Over/Under Pick: Under 4.5 goals (-127)
We’ve already covered Curacao’s tight defense in qualification, but facing Germany will be a different beast. We’re going to see them play a deep block, with the wings back alongside three CBs and two of the midfield three sitting in to protect them.
Germany has the guile to break them down, but it won’t be easy, and it won’t be quick.
The lack of creativity in the middle is a serious issue for Germany, and a wide player like Leroy Sane works best when he can utilize his pace, something he won’t be able to do with Deveron Donville sat deep, and the covering of Riechedly Bazoer.
The injury to Lennart Karl in the build-up to the tournament also cost Germany another player capable of unlocking a low block. Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz are players who can do that, but it won’t be easy or as high-scoring as many believe.
Germany vs Curacao goal scorer pick
Kai Havertz (-225)
Kai Havertz isn’t a world-class striker, but he’s hugely underrated. He rarely gets love from the teams he plays for, but coaches adore him. That’s down to his movement and his reading of space, a vital attribute that sees him scoring clutch goals often. He scored four in six Champions League games for Arsenal this season, and got the nod to start over Viktor Gyokeres in the final.
Bar Armando Obispo, Curacao’s central defender, doesn’t play regularly at the highest level, and even then, he’s a frequent substitute. Havertz's ability to find space and move between the lines should get him opportunities to shoot.
Germany vs Curacao projected lineup
Germany (4-2-3-1): Neuer; Kimmich, Tah, Schlotterbeck, Brown; Nmecha, Pavlovic; Sane, Musiala, Wirtz; Havertz.
Curacao (4-2-3-1): Room; Floranus, Bazoer, Obispo, Fonville; Comenencia, J. Bacuna; Hansen, Chong, Locadia; L. Bacuna.
Germany vs Curacao injuries
Germany: No injuries to report.
Curacao: No injuries to report.
Germany vs Curacao weather
This game will be played in a dome, so weather will not be a factor.
Germany vs Curacao odds
 Germany |
 Curacao |
|
|---|---|---|
| -1567 | Moneyline | +3233 |
| +1900 | Draw | +1900 |
| Over 2.5 (+104) | Total | Under 2.5 (-108) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Germany vs Curacao
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date | Sunday, June 14, 2026 |
| Time | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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