If the start of the 2022-23 Premier League season is any indication, Manchester City are on a warpath and there is no mercy for whichever poor club finds itself next along City's route.
In that sense, while Newcastle United are an English giant in their own right and St. James' Park is among the greatest venues in the sport, look away on Sunday — it's going to get ugly.
Despite Man City's standing as a global powerhouse, there is EPL betting value to be found Sunday at St. James'. We break it down for you in our picks and predictions for Newcastle United vs. Man City.
Newcastle vs Manchester City match odds
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Newcastle vs Manchester City betting tips
- Prediction: Man City -1.5 (+105)
- Prediction: Man City TT Over 2.5 (+145)
- Best bet: Man City -1.5 (+105)
Predictions made on 8/19/2022 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Newcastle vs Manchester City game info
• Location: St. James' Park, Newcastle, England
• Date: Sunday, August 21, 2022
• Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
• TV: USA Network
Newcastle vs Manchester City betting preview
Weather
It should be a beautiful Sunday Tyneside, with little wind or clouds in the forecast. Temperatures at kickoff are expected to be around 65 degrees Fahrenheit.
Injuries
Newcastle: Matt Targett LB (Questionable), Jonjo Shelvey CM (Out).
Manchester City: Aymeric Laporte CB (Out).
Newcastle vs Manchester City predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
In a career of overachieving relative to expectations and resources, Newcastle United manager Eddie Howe has consistently been brought back down to earth by Pep Guardiola's Man City.
During a five-year period from 2015 to 2020, Howe brilliantly maintained Bournemouth's Premier League status despite the South Coast club being an unidentifiable minnow compared to the large majority of the league in which they were competing.
Howe was uncompromising in his approach, and it helped him and his club reach incredible highs, including an amazing ninth-place finish in their second season in the top flight. Yet, whether Howe's Bournemouth were fighting for survival or a top-half finish, Pep's City was there to serve cold reminders of reality, time and time again.
From September 2016 to July 2020, the two faced one another eight times in the league. And from those eight matches, Howe's record against Pep read 0 wins, 0 draws, and eight losses, with four goals scored and 21 conceded.
History repeated itself, unfortunately for Howe, last season. After taking over an utterly lifeless Newcastle team, who began the season with 14 games without a win, Howe authored a turnaround for the ages. From January 1 to May 7, only Liverpool earned more points — City included — with Newcastle taking 32 points from a possible 48.
Then, on May 8, Howe's Newcastle went to the Etihad to face Pep's City... and promptly lost 5-0, continuing Howe's shocking record against Pep.
Man City entered this season with a great case as the best team in the world. Through two matchweeks, they've only reinforced that notion. They have imposed their will on the Premier League for the better part of five years, and Pep has done the same to Howe during that time. Both of those themes will continue on Sunday.
Prediction: Man City -1.5 (+105 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
It should come as no surprise, with their record against one another in mind, but our team total handicap will be rooted in this history as well. That's because, well, City have run Howe's teams ragged, whether the Englishman was managing on the South Coast or in the Northeast.
In 10 games, Pep's teams have averaged three goals per game against Howe's sides, including nine goals across the two matches last season.
It's also an incredibly poor matchup for Newcastle's backline. While improved in both play and quality since Howe took over, holdover Fabian Schar and newcomers Dan Burn and Sven Botman are all weak on the turn and have been caught out playing a high line against the Top 4 consistently under Howe.
That issue was painfully apparent for Newcastle in both games against City last season, and now the visitors have the added luxury of being able to go direct... to the world's best No. 9, Erling Halaand.
City have entered the new season in a scorching form already, with 2-0 and 4-0 wins in the bag. Expect another high-scoring performance on Sunday.
Prediction: Man City team total Over 2.5 (+145 at DraftKings)
Best bet
Between the level City have begun this season playing at and Pep's history against Howe, there are countless directions to go with this best bet. Heaven knows Halaand will be an utter force this weekend, after a week of tiresome conversations which followed an eight-touch performance against Bournemouth, and will be desperate to add to his City tally.
Yet, with plus-money odds on City to win by multiple goals, it's best just not to overthink this.
In the 10 meetings between these two managers, Pep's teams have won by multiple goals 70% of the time. The implied probability on City -1.5 on Sunday, however, is just 48.78%.
Take City to cover the -1.5 and don't look back.
Pick: Man City -1.5 (+105 at DraftKings)
