The playoff chase is coming down to the final few matches, and that makes the stakes even greater ahead of a rivalry-filled MLS slate for Matchday 31.
Headlined by the latest edition of the Hell Is Real Derby, our MLS moneyline picks break down a slate including rivalries in Texas and SoCal, while St. Louis chases history in Minnesota.
Here are our moneyline picks for Matchday 31!
MLS moneyline picks for Matchday 31
| Game | Pick |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Union vs  Charlotte FC |
Philadelphia Union 65% |
 Minnesota United FC vs  St. Louis CITY SC |
St. Louis CITY SC 36% |
 Atlanta United FC vs  Inter Miami CF |
Inter Miami CF 51% |
 New England Revolution vs  Chicago Fire |
Draw 26% |
 New York City FC vs  LAFC |
LAFC 41% |
 New York Red Bulls vs  Toronto FC |
Draw 25% |
 Orlando City SC vs  D.C. United |
Orlando City SC 57% |
 Austin FC vs  Vancouver Whitecaps FC |
Draw 21% |
 Houston Dynamo vs  FC Dallas |
FC Dallas 30% |
 Sporting Kansas City vs  Real Salt Lake |
Draw 25% |
 LA Galaxy vs  San Diego FC |
LA Galaxy 46% |
 Portland Timbers vs  Colorado Rapids |
Draw 24% |
 San Jose Earthquakes vs  Nashville SC |
Nashville SC 51% |
 Seattle Sounders FC vs  CF Montreal |
Seattle Sounders FC 65% |
 FC Cincinnati vs  Columbus Crew |
Draw 24% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert MLS moneyline picks
Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte FC pick: Philadelphia
I hate laying this much, but it's a rare spot where the price is actually a bit better than fair.
Philly is riding an eight-match winning streak in MLS play and are unbeaten in 14, and Cavan Sullivan is red hot. They will punish a Charlotte defense without a clean sheet in six matches, and that just conceded 33 shots and 3.82 xG to the Crew.
Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis CITY SC pick: St. Louis CITY
Another positive result for St. Louis on Saturday would see them set a new MLS record with 20 matches unbeaten. But I'm backing them to do so with a victory against a Minnesota side that has two points from their last six matches.
St. Louis needs to win to keep pressure on Vancouver for the top spot in the West, and that's enough for me to back an underdog victory on the road.
Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami CF pick: Inter Miami
This is a no-brainer at this probability. Atlanta's coming off a 3-0 win on the road, but it came against a reeling Montreal side. Kily Gonzalez has Miami playing very smart at the back, and Lionel Messi is pulling all the strings right now.
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire pick: Draw
Both sides come into this match dealing with key injuries, but playing well down the stretch despite them. Chicago has won just three of their 21 visits to Gillette Stadium, but I like them to get a result here, with New England possibly rotating a big after securing their playoff spot.
New York City FC vs LAFC pick: LAFC
LAFC's interim manager may have unlocked something by moving Denis Bouanga to striker playing in front of Heung-Min Son. The duo scored all three goals in the win over Austin on Wednesday, with Son assisting on both of Bouanga's goals.
NYCFC are injury-riddled, and have claimed just one point from their last four matches.
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC pick: Draw
Toronto's nothing if not entertaining. A late goal secured a 3-3 draw with Orlando, just days after they scored twice in stoppage time to defeat Montreal. That never-say-die attitude will secure them a point against a NYRB side wondering how it lost to DC United despite a 2.94-1.18 xG edge and a man advantage for the final 22 minutes.
Orlando City SC vs D.C. United pick: Orlando City
Orlando is nearly back to full strength and will be kicking themselves for blowing the lead late to Toronto. They've been far more reliable at home and will secure three points off a DC United side with nine points from their last 10 outings.
Austin FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps FC pick: Draw
Vancouver will be without Thomas Muller yet again, and they've now drawn three times with a defeat in their last four. Austin comes in off consecutive defeats to LAFC and Nashville, and they know they must find a way to defeat Vancouver for the second time in five weeks if they hope to remain in the playoff hunt.
Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas pick: Dallas
Houston continues to blow leads and give away points, and have now claimed just one victory in their last nine as they slip down the Western Conference standings. Dallas have one defeat in their last eight, and they'll pick up another win off the back of their 1-0 victory over Seattle at home on Wednesday.
Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake pick: Draw
This is a spot where you can essentially fade both sides for strong value. Sporting have played better of late, but I can't trust a defense that has conceded 13 goals in the last five matches. That said, RSL has just one victory in their last 13 matches as they deal with a rash of injuries.
LA Galaxy vs San Diego FC pick: LA Galaxy
The Galaxy are holding onto a playoff spot and have been terrific at home of late. San Diego is getting destroyed on the back end, conceding 20 goals in their last six outings, and I cannot justify backing them in any way given the form they're in.
Portland Timbers vs Colorado Rapids pick: Draw
Portland's 2-0 loss to the Galaxy leaves them winless in their last five with four defeats. Colorado is abysmal on the road, taking just eight of a possible 42 points this season. The lack of confidence in either side to get a win makes the draw an attractive play.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC pick: Nashville
San Jose barely squeaked past RSL on Wednesday behind a stoppage-time winner, as injuries continue to hamper their run-in. Their eight-match unbeaten run will come to an end against a Nashville side that ran rampant on Sporting, riding a four-match winning streak where they've scored 15 goals while conceding just once.
Seattle Sounders FC vs CF Montreal: Seattle
Another spot where the juice is worth the squeeze, we're backing Seattle despite the 65% probability. Montreal makes the cross-continent trek having lost seven of their last eight in league play, and having claimed just seven points from 14 away fixtures. The Sounders will get back to their winning ways after their narrow defeat in Dallas.
FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew pick: Draw
Hell is real, and it's where the away side has been in the last four iterations of this bitter rivalry. I'm bucking that trend here.
Cincinnati may get Evander back, but they lost more players to injury against the Revs and have beaten Columbus at home just twice in eight all-time meetings. The Crew are in form, and with both teams fighting for the last playoff spot in the East, neither will want to lose here.
- Moneyline picks: 148-206, +1.97 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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