Saturday’s headline Premier League clash sees Newcastle and Aston Villa meeting at St. James' Park.
These two clubs have produced some thrilling battles in recent years, and my Newcastle vs. Aston Villa predictions back Unai Emery’s side to come out on top as 33% underdogs.
Read on for my free picks for Oct. 17, with kickoff set for 12:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa predictions
My Newcastle vs Aston Villa top pick: Aston Villa to win (33% probability)
Aston Villa’s form has picked up after a slow start to the season, thanks to the squad settling in following a period of recruitment, sales, and injuries.
Two signings are key to Villa winning this game. Nicolas Jackson can stretch the Newcastle defense with his speed, and he’s in excellent form, having scored in three straight games. Jackson’s link-up play with Johan Manzambi is integral, and the Swiss international can exploit a back four that’s leaking goals. The duo have combined for six goals and an assist in the last three contests.
The Newcastle backline is looking brittle, having allowed seven goals in four games. Villa’s direct play, Manzambi’s creativity, and Jackson’s speed will create chances, especially with Tino Livramento out. His presence would otherwise force Villa’s wide players to do more defensive work.
My Newcastle vs Aston Villa Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 goals (61% probability)
All four of Newcastle’s games in all competitions this season have had Over 2.5 goals, and the same can be said for eight of Villa’s 10.
Villa have the tools in attack to win the game, as we saw when they scored six goals midweek in the Champions League, but defensively, they are a strong chance to concede too.
With Matteo Ruggeri and Ian Maatsen both injured, it’s forcing Aaron Wan-Bissaka, a natural right back, to switch flanks, which will open up the game for Jacob Murphy and allow him to punish Villa by going down the left side and hitting the byline for a cross.
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Newcastle vs Aston Villa combo
Aston Villa to win
Over 2.5 goals
Villa’s forwards are finding momentum after missing the first few games of the season. Their speed and chemistry can disrupt a Newcastle backline that’s conceding plenty of goals.
Expect a high-scoring win for the road side.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa odds
Newcastle
Aston VillaOdds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Newcastle vs Aston Villa
| Location | St. James' Park, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, England |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026 |
| Time | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
| Weather | 52F and cloudy, with little chance of rain. |
Newcastle vs Aston Villa key injuries
Newcastle: Ewen Jaeuen GK (Out), Jacob Ramsey MID (Out), Anthony Elanga FWR (Out), Basoumana Traore FWR (Questionable), Valentino Livramento RB (Questionable), Lewis Miley CM (Questionable).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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