Manchester City vs Real Madrid Picks and Predictions: Pep Faces Old Spanish Foe

This Tuesday sees the Champions League return for the first of two semifinal legs, with both games featuring English sides against Spanish teams. First up is Manchester City vs. Real Madrid, with arguably the best team on the planet facing the most accomplished club in European soccer history.

Who will come out on top? The new money of Man City or the blue blood Real Madrid? Don’t miss our Man City vs. Real Madrid tips and predictions below.

Manchester City vs Real Madrid match odds

Compare Champions League odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Manchester City vs Real Madrid betting tips

• Prediction: Manchester City (-215)
• Prediction: Under 2.5 (+124)
• Best bet: Man City to win 1-0 (+700)

Predictions made on 4/25/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Manchester City vs Real Madrid game info

• Location: Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England
• Date: Tuesday, April 26, 2022
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: DAZN, Paramount+

Manchester City vs Real Madrid betting preview

Weather

With temperatures in the mid-50s at kick-off, this won’t be a warm day but there’ll be no rain in the build-up and we should have great conditions for the game.

Injuries

Manchester City: Joao Cancelo LB (Out), Kyle Walker RB (Questionable), John Stones CB (Questionable), Kevin De Bruyne CM (Questionable).
Real Madrid: Eden Hazard FW (Out).

Manchester City vs Real Madrid predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Side analysis

We are now firmly at the business end of this year’s Champions League and Tuesday’s game gives us a tantalizing fixture full of exciting narratives with Manchester City vs. Real Madrid.

This year’s Champions League semis has a real Anglo-Spanish feel with both ties featuring English teams against Spanish. Not only that, both Manchester City and Real Madrid reached this stage by winning Anglo-Spanish ties in the quarterfinals. 

Pep Guardiola’s Man City overcame Real’s city rivals Atletico Madrid in the last round, in one of the Champions League's most memorable games ever. It finished 0-0 but it was a nasty, violent affair with foul play replacing goals as the spectacle. 

Meanwhile, Real Madrid lost 3-2 to West London side Chelsea after an incredible comeback from Chelsea who lost the first leg 3-1. A Karim Benzema goal in extra time secured the La Liga leaders' passage but in truth, Real were mostly outplayed.

Now, we have a fascinating chess match on our hands between Man City and Real Madrid, teams who are in many ways the exact opposite of one another. Man City, alongside PSG, are one of the clubs that most epitomize ‘new money', state-owned clubs who have challenged the status quo.

Real Madrid are the ‘old money’, a European heavyweight who have won more Champions League trophies than anyone in history. That will be reflected on the pitch too, with the core of this Real team being the experienced stars that have won so many European titles in the last few years, whereas Man City, despite it being their No. 1 priority, have found a way to lose the Champions League repeatedly in recent years.

Eden Hazard notwithstanding, Real come into this match far healthier. Man City, on the other hand, will be without Cancelo (suspension) as well as question marks surrounding the availability of Kyle Walker, John Stones, and Kevin De Bruyne. They'll almost certainly try to get KDB on the field and you'd imagine Kyle Walker as well, given the drop-off in quality between him and his deputy at right-back.

Man City are firm favorites with the sportsbooks, leaving Real Madrid at a very attractive price. Despite the Spanish giants being 15 points clear of Barcelona at the top of La Liga, the reality is that they simply can’t compete with either City or Liverpool.

City have proven time and again they can beat anyone on the planet and they do that by suffocating them of possession and then letting their superior technical ability take care of the rest.

This is going to be a fun match and you can never be too sure that Guardiola won’t try and overthink his team selection, but Man City really should finish this game holding the advantage ahead of the return trip to Madrid.

Prediction: Manchester City (-215 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

Given some of the attacking quality on these teams, it’s no surprise fans and sportsbooks alike think this could be high-scoring, but I’d argue the price of +124 on Under 2.5 goals offers real value here.

Man City played at home in the first leg of their Champions League quarterfinal and only won the game 1-0. Admittedly, that was against an Atletico team who put 11 men behind the ball but I think there’s a reasonable chance that Real Madrid would have watched that game and considered it as a blueprint to beat City.

Real will look to Benzema to take advantage of any mistakes or space that Man City allow him but I don’t think they’ll look to heavily attack in this game. It makes more sense for them to try and get through this game and then beat City at Santiago Bernabeu.

Prediction: Under 2.5 (+124 at FanDuel)

Best bet

If you’ve read the above then you’ll know I’m expecting Man City to win a low-scoring game. Having read that, it probably should be too much of a surprise that I love the +700 odds being offered for Man City to win this game 1-0. 

I really do think that Real Madrid’s key aim will be to survive this game, even if they go about it slightly differently from how Atletico did. They will look to keep things tight and take advantage if they get a chance.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see this game finish 0-0, 1-1 or, more likely, with City snatching a 1-0 victory. At +700, it’s worth a small wager.  

Pick: Manchester City to win 1-0 (+700 at DraftKings)

Pages related to this topic