Sunday’s opening matchup in the FIFA Club World Cup sees PSG facing off with Inter Miami.
For Lionel Messi, it’s an interesting match.
The former PSG player is not only facing off with many of his former teammates, but he will be trying to defeat Luis Enrique, who managed him previously at Barcelona.
To do so, Messi will have to help the Herons pull off a massive upset.
Here are my Lionel Messi props and FIFA Club World Cup free picks for June 29.
Lionel Messi prop bets for June 29
- 1+ shots on target outside the box (+120)
- 3+ shots (-140)
- Messi to score or assist (+150)
Sunday's best Lionel Messi prop bets
1+ shots on target outside the box (+120 at bet365)
While he didn’t find the back of the net on either of his long-range efforts in the match, Lionel Messi has scored in four of his last six from outside the box. He’s also now taken all nine of his shots in the Club World Cup from outside the 18-yard box.
PSG have conceded just one goal in this tournament, but it did come from a shot outside the area. That was an Igor Jesus strike on the counterattack, as he ripped one from just outside the top of the area and snuck it past Gigi Donnarumma into the lower left corner of the goal.
Botafogo had just four shots in that match, but all four were on target, with two of those coming from outside the box. Messi is prone to winning free kicks near the penalty area, and he’s keen on shooting from range.
That makes this prop playable as long as you are getting plus-odds, no matter the opponent.
3+ shots (-140 at DraftKings)
Messi attempted just two shots against Palmeiras, as Inter Miami had just eight in total compared to the 22 shots for their opponents. However, he’s averaging three shots per 90 minutes in the competition, while no other player aside from Luis Suarez is averaging more than 1.3 in that same timeframe.
And while it’s easy in theory to stop Messi from getting into shooting position, he’s got “in the gym” range, as they say in basketball. He’s apt to take fire from anywhere within 35 yards, especially when his team needs a goal.
PSG are expected to win this match going away, which is why I have them winning both halves as my best bet for the match.
But that also means Messi will try to put the side on his back and test Donnarumma anytime he can.
Messi takes all free kicks and penalties for the side, and if PSG get their lead, then odds are they’ll sit back and absorb a bit of pressure to launch counters at Inter Miami’s leaky defense.
This should give him enough opportunity to get to the floor of three shots. I would play this up to -150 odds.
Messi to score or assist (+150 at FanDuel)
If Inter Miami are going to score in this match, then it’s highly likely Messi will be involved.
PSG boast the world’s best midfield, along with a lightning-fast attack and a stout defense. Their fullbacks are fast and can deal with anything Miami throws at them, and Suarez is going to struggle against their central defenders.
That means it falls on Messi to create their chances. While he’s not the player he once was, he is still lethal in the big moments.
Messi's dribbling skills and ability to find spaces between the lines remain elite, and Miami will need him to be the catalyst for any goals they hope to score.
At +150 odds, the odds at FanDuel far exceed what you can find elsewhere. It also makes it a no-brainer for me, especially if you think Inter Miami won’t be shut out on the day.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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