The United States seek to reach the Gold Cup semi-finals for the 13th time in 14 appearances when they face Costa Rica from US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis on Sunday.
The Americans scored eight goals in the group stage and allowed just one, and know that a win here likely sets them up against Canada in the semi-final. Costa Rica are attempting to beat the Americans at the Gold Cup for the first time in five meetings.
It’s going to be a long day for Los Ticos and I explain why in our USA vs. Costa Rica predictions and soccer picks for Sunday, June 29.
USA vs Costa Rica picks and predictions
My USA vs Costa Rica best bet: USA to win to nil (+162 at bet365)
With six minutes left in regulation in the scoreless draw against Mexico, Costa Rican striker Manfred Ugalde received a yellow card. While it had little bearing on the outcome of the match, the ramifications for Los Ticos were massive.
That’s because Ugalde was shown a yellow card in their previous match, a 2-1 victory over the Dominican Republic. The second yellow of the tournament means that Costa Rica must take on the United States without the man whose 0.86 xG per 90 so far in the tournament is more than the rest of his teammates combined.
Granted, all three of Ugalde’s goals have come from the penalty spot. But he’s also their biggest threat by far in attack. He assisted their other goal against the Dominican Republic, and has goals in four of his last six matches for club and country.
The United States have conceded just one goal so far in the tournament, a low-danger effort inside the opening 20 minutes in the third match against Haiti. But the Americans looked very strong defensively throughout the group stage. Their three opponents managed exactly 1.0 xG in total, with only six of the17 shots against finding the target.
Matt Freese has been a huge upgrade in goal over Matt Turner, both in his shot-stopping ability and his decision making. The central defensive partnership between Chris Richards and Tim Ream has been solid, while Malik Tillman has been the everything man as he’s creating goals at one end while helping break up attacks in defense.
Pochettino’s side is flying at the moment, and more importantly have gotten some much-needed rest after three matches in eight days. They have much more talent across the board, and are heavily favored to win in regulation.
Costa Rica held Mexico scoreless, but were very fortunate to do so. Santiago Gimenez had a spectacular bicycle kick goal ruled out for offside in stoppage time. El Tri also knew they would win the group with a draw, and had little need to take risks.
With five starters missing, Los Ticos won’t have enough to force extra time. The Americans won’t be held at bay, and they’ll win this one while Costa Rica fails to score.
USA vs Costa Rica same-game parlay (SGP)
USA win to nil
Under 2.5 goals
Patrick Agyemang 1+ shots on target
Much like the American victory over Saudi Arabia, I’m expecting a low-scoring affair. I see the Yanks winning this 1-0 or 2-0 as it will take time to break down the Costa Rican defense. Keylor Navas is still a terrific goalkeeper for Los Ticos, and once they get the lead I don’t think Pochettino will want his side taking many risks and allowing the opponents back into the match.
Patrick Agyemang is trying to solidify his claim to be the striker for the USMNT in next summer’s World Cup, and he’s done a good job so far in the Gold Cup. The tall, athletic striker is averaging 1.9 shots on target per 90 minutes, and 0.74 goals per 90 minutes. He scored in two of the three matches in the group stage, and will test Navas at least once whether via his foot or a header.
USA vs Costa Rica odds
| USA | Costa Rica | |
|---|---|---|
| -175 | Moneyline | +475 |
| +320 | Draw | +320 |
| Over 2.5 (-118) | Total | Under 2.5 (-106) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
How to watch USA vs Costa Rica
| Location | U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Sunday, 6-29-2025 |
| Time | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
USA vs Costa Rica key injuries
USA: Ricardo Pepi (knee), Zack Steffen (knee), Sergino Dest (knee), Antonee Robinson (knee), Folarin Balogun (ankle).
Costa Rica: Brandon Aguilera (undisclosed), Juan Pablo Vargas (muscle).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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