Liverpool vs Aston Villa Picks and Predictions: Don't Let Nunez's Heroics Fool You

If you are an English Premier League fan and own a TV, chances are you've seen and heard about Liverpool's incredible comeback last week against title contenders Newcastle.

Down 1-0 and reduced to 10 men after just 28 minutes, Darwin Nunez's late brace rescued a result and sent Liverpool on their way with three unlikely points. Could this early season turnaround be the catalyst for a potential run that would place the Reds atop the Premier League? Possibly, but Aston Villa is no push-over. 

The Villans enter this game with six points from three games and their goal-scoring record is second only to Brighton. Will Villa be able to take advantage of Virgil van Dijk's absence and outscore the Reds at Anfield? 

This week's Premier League odds suggest not, but there is a way to back the visitors at a great price and I'll tell you how in my EPL picks and predictions for Liverpool vs. Aston Villa. 

Liverpool vs Aston Villa best odds

Liverpool vs Aston Villa picks and predictions

For as incredible a comeback Liverpool had on Sunday on the road at Newcastle, we have to be sure not to overreact to the result. Do teams sometimes find a way to win games when down a man? Yes, it happens. Should Newcastle have done a better job of managing the game heading into the final quarter of an hour of a game they were firmly in control of? Undoubtedly. If they do, we're not looking at odds of Liverpool -150 on the moneyline in this fixture. 

Liverpool have big issues to deal with heading into this fixture against an Aston Villa side that has shown the ability to score goals through the early stages of the campaign.

For starters, their best center-back and captain, Virgil van Dijk, will miss this game through suspension and the replacement defender, Joe Gomez is on the wrong side of 30 and has seen better days. He'll struggle to keep up with the pace of Ollie Watkins and Moussa Diaby which in turn will leave Liverpool vulnerable to through balls picked out by their creative midfield. 

As for Aston Villa, this side has notched eight league goals in three games and five in their Europa League qualification fixture vs. Hibernian. Unai Emery has this team playing some very attractive and attacking football and it's got to be said that it's a breath of fresh air for this club. 

While Villa may not have the best track record against Liverpool over their last seven games (1W, 1D, 5L), these two clubs are trending in different directions.

Aston Villa has all the belief in the world they can go into Anfield and snatch a result, while Liverpool — fresh off the high of last week's comeback — will be hoping their already depleted roster doesn't run out of gas in this contest. 

I'm backing the fresher and more well-rounded (for this stage in the season) team to get us a result. 

My best bet: Aston Villa double chance (win or draw) (+116 at TonyBet)

Liverpool vs Aston Villa same-game parlay

Aston Villa double chance (W/D)

9+ corners

Both teams to score

+275 at bet365

As always, when we start building out our same-game parlay, we'll use our best bet and build around it. I already told you why I like Aston Villa: they are the fresher of the two squads, they've got a great tactician in Unai Emery at the helm and he'll have his guys prepared for this one, and their goal-scoring form is on the rise.

Liverpool's injuries are mounting and no van Dijk means a makeshift backline, which is something Villa can take advantage of. 

What Liverpool does have going for them is an arsenal of attackers in Mo Salah, Cody Gakpo, Diego Jota, and last week's hero Nunez who can all make something out of nothing. They've gone 14 consecutive games scoring at least once at Anfield and we like that run to continue in what I believe will be a back-and-forth affair and one that sees Villa find the net as well. 

Finally, these are two of the top eight teams in terms of generating corner kicks. Liverpool have taken 23 while Villa have taken 18 through three matches. There's no reason to believe we won't see five corners a piece in this fixture. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Liverpool vs Aston Villa side and Over/Under analysis

As I mentioned off the top, if Liverpool doesn't come back and win that game vs. Newcastle and get everyone talking about how great a team they are, we're not seeing Liverpool -150 on the moneyline. Instead, the line would probably be somewhere close to Liverpool -110 and Aston Villa +250, not the inflated +350 we have here today. 

If we were to talk about this game from a strictly win-loss point of view, you'd have to take the value with Aston Villa. They should not be 3.5/1 underdogs against a team that many figured would struggle this season. Sure, a couple of results did go Liverpool's way but the lineup is a makeshift one and Aston Villa has shown real promise in the early stages. 

As for the total, it's sitting at 2.5 juiced to the Over at -225. Goals will in fact be scored in this contest, it's only a matter of which team does the majority of the scoring. Both teams to score is also juiced to the "Yes" at -200, so I'd be shocked if this game ended 1-0 or 2-0 in favor of either side.  

Liverpool vs Aston Villa game info

Liverpool vs Aston Villa key injuries

Liverpool: Ibrahim Konate (Doubtful), Virgil van Dijk (Suspension), Thiago (Probable), Curtis Jones (Probable). 
Aston Villa: Emiliano Martinez (Doubtful).

Liverpool vs Aston Villa recent league form

Teams	Recent Premier League form
Liverpool	W-W-D
Aston Villa	W-W-L

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