Both teams are under significant pressure heading into this London derby, so don't overlook the potential for the 'X' factor when analyzing the odds.
While both sides will be eager for a win, my Chelsea vs. Arsenal predictions believe the points will be split at Stamford Bridge.
Read on for my Premier League predictions for Sunday, November 10.
EPL predictions for Chelsea vs Arsenal
My best bet:
Draw (+250 at TonyBet)
My analysis
Both Chelsea and Arsenal have played midweek matches in their respective European competitions — Chelsea in the Conference League and Arsenal in the Champions League — and both teams are feeling the toll of a busy schedule. Players are fatigued after a series of matches across three competitions (Premier League, League Cup, and European football) over the past few weeks. After the Chelsea vs. Arsenal clash, many of the key players will head off for international duty. While they’re eager to wrap up the Nations League during the international break, their focus will remain on the derby until it’s done.
Arsenal, who had hoped to challenge Manchester City for a third consecutive season in the title race, have seen their plans derailed. The Gunners have only earned one point from their last three Premier League games, slipping to 5th place with 18 points. Liverpool lead the table on 25 points, with City just two behind. Chelsea sit above Arsenal on goal difference. On the topic of goals, Chelsea has seen over 2.5 goals in five of their last six meetings with Arsenal in all competitions. Meanwhile, Arsenal have won five of their last six encounters with Chelsea.
This promises to be a derby played under special circumstances, considering the stakes and the current form of both teams. A draw wouldn’t be seen negatively by either side, especially with the international break offering a chance to reset. Given the form of both teams, I’d also consider the under 3.5 goals option, priced at a reasonable -209 via TonyBet.
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Chelsea vs Arsenal same-game parlay (SGP)
Draw
Under 3.5 goals
Over 5.5 bookings
It’s a derby match, so it’s bound to be intense, but don’t overlook the fact that both teams have had a hectic month. Arsenal are even facing something of a mini-crisis, with two defeats and a draw in their last three Premier League games, plus a 1-0 loss to Inter Milan in the Champions League. Chelsea, as the home side, looks better equipped to go for the three points, but a draw wouldn’t be a disaster for either team. I don’t expect many goals in this one, as both sides will prioritize the result over attacking flair.
Michael Oliver will be the referee for this match, and he's coming off a midweek Champions League game between PSV and Girona in which he showed eight yellow cards and a red. In my opinion, the potential for cards should never be ignored in derby matches like this one.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Chelsea vs Arsenal odds
Chelsea vs Arsenal live odds
Chelsea vs Arsenal opening odds
- Moneyline: Chelsea +175 | Arsenal +154
- Draw: +250
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 -137 | Under 2.5 +117
Chelsea vs Arsenal side and Over/Under analysis
- Arsenal have won five of their last six matches against Chelsea in all competitions.
- Chelsea have seen over 2.5 goals in five of their last six games against Arsenal in all competitions.
- Arsenal have scored at least two goals in five of their last six matches against Chelsea in all competitions.
Chelsea vs Arsenal game info
| Location: | Stamford Bridge, London, UK |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-10-2024 |
| Time: | 11:30 a.m. ET |
| TV: | USA |
| Weather: | 54F, 5 mph winds, 20% PoP. |
 recent EPL form |
D-W-L-D-W |
 recent EPL form |
L-D-L-W-W |
Chelsea vs Arsenal key injuries
Chelsea: Cole Palmer CAM (questionable), Jadon Sancho LW (questionable).
Arsenal: Riccardo Calafiori CB (out), Takehiro Tomiyasu RB (out), Mikel Merino DM (questionable), Declan Rice CM (questionable), Raheem Sterling LW (out), Kai Haverts FW (questionable).
Not intended for use in MA.
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