Aston Villa vs Liverpool Predictions and Picks for Today's EPL Matchup

With just two games left in the EPL season, Aston Villa and Liverpool both have something still to play for. For Villa, it's a spot in Europe, while the Reds are playing for pride and to send Jurgen Klopp off on a high note. Who will come out on top in today's fixture? Read on to find out!

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
May 13, 2024 • 12:00 ET • 4 min read
Mohamed Salah Liverpool EPL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Aston Villa and Liverpool are set to battle under the floodlights tonight at Villa Park. With both teams still having plenty to fight for this season, will Villa’s European humbling linger into our Aston Villa vs. Liverpool prediction?

Find out in our EPL predictions for Monday, May 13.  

EPL predictions for Aston Villa vs Liverpool

My best bet:
Liverpool moneyline (-139 at BETANO)

My analysis

We’ve got an exciting game under the floodlights on Monday but it looks very different from when it was first scheduled. Heading into this game Liverpool sit third in the Premier League, having self-destructed in the previous month and effectively eliminated themselves from title contention.

Likewise, Aston Villa are seven points clear of Spurs, who have a game in hand, and are very close to sealing that fourth spot and Champions League action next season. Like Liverpool, their fate can be confirmed on Saturday if the results go their way. 

These other results make it hard to know exactly how the players will feel when they line up at Villa Park on Monday, and what makes it even tougher to understand their mental state are recent events. Villa got humbled 6-2 over two semi-final legs by Olympiacos and their Europa Conference League dreams are in pieces. Likewise, Liverpool’s players know that they have just two games left with Jurgen Klopp as manager, and the departure of the German has undeniably impacted their season.

When it comes to kick-off I’d argue that we’re likely to see a very attacking game from both teams. Villa enter this game hurt and wanting to prove a point following their European capitulation, while Liverpool will be trying their very best to end the season on a high, regardless of results going their way at the weekend.

It’s been an impressive season for Villa but Liverpool have been sensational at times, They will come out here and really get stuck into Villa. They are the better team, they aren’t coming into this off a mentally tough European defeat and crucially they would have had eight days rest compared with Villa’s three, something which will have a huge impact at this stage of the season.

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Aston Villa vs Liverpool same-game parlay (SGP)

Liverpool moneyline

Mohamed Salah any time goal

Both teams to score — Yes

We’re going to include Mohamed Salah to score in our SGP.  You have to wonder if we’re taking Mohamed Salah for granted at this point. He’s scored 18 Premier League goals this season, more than anybody else at the club, and has 10 assists, again the most at the club. If anyone’s likely to score it’s him, especially after a week’s rest and having scored against Spurs last time out.

We’re also going to back Aston Villa to score, although it won’t be enough for them to win the game. Liverpool have been poor at the back recently and Both teams to score has landed in 72.2% of their away games this season, with the opposition scoring in six of their past seven league games away from home.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Aston Villa vs Liverpool odds

Aston Villa vs Liverpool live odds

Aston Villa vs Liverpool opening odds

  • Moneyline: Aston Villa +250 | Liverpool -110
  • Draw: +300
  • Over/Under: Over 2.5 | Under 2.5

Aston Villa vs Liverpool side and Over/Under analysis

  • Liverpool are -139 favorites with Aston Villa available at +310 and the draw at +350.
  • Aston Villa and Liverpool have both won just twice in their last five Premier League games.
  • Over 2.5 goals is most likely at -303 with Under 2.5 goals at +240.
  • 61.1% of Liverpool’s away games have hit Over 2.5 goals and 77.8% of Aston Villa’s games at Villa Park.

Aston Villa vs Liverpool game info

Location: Villa Park, Birmingham, England
Date: Monday, 5-13-2024
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: Peacock Premium, fubo TV, Sling Blue, Hulu + Live TV
Weather: Rainy, cool conditions. 
Aston Villa Recent EPL form L-D-W-W-D
Liverpool Recent EPL form W-D-L-W-L

Aston Villa vs Liverpool key injuries

Aston Villa: Emiliano Buendia FWR (Out), Boubacar Kamara CM (Out), Tyrone Mings CB (Out), Jacoob Ramsey CM (Out), Youri Tielemans CM (Out).
Liverpool:  Joel Matip CB (Out), Thiago Alcantara CM (Out), Diogo Jota FWR (Out), Conor Bradley RB (Questionable).

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Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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