AC Milan vs Inter Milan Picks and Predictions: Inter Picks Up Win in Chippy Affair

For the first time since the infamous flare incident in 2005, Inter and AC Milan will do battle in Champions League action. With Inter catching fire as of late, our UCL betting picks are banking on them to pull out a victory in the first leg.

May 10, 2023 • 12:01 ET • 4 min read

For the first time in 18 years — since one of the most iconic photos in soccer history was taken — the Champions League will feature a Derby della Madonnina as AC Milan and Inter Milan turn the San Siro into a must-see battleground.

The intensity will be just as high on the pitch as it is in the stands because not only are they fighting for a place in the Champions League final, but Inter sits just two points ahead of Milan for the fourth and final Champions League place in the Serie A table.

The Curva Sud and Curva Nord will set the atmosphere ablaze with tifos and songs, and there should be plenty of fireworks on the pitch between the players. Let us help you fire up some bets for this epic clash in our AC Milan vs Inter Milan betting picks for Wednesday, May 10. 

AC Milan vs Inter Milan best odds

AC Milan vs Inter Milan picks and predictions

The last time these two sides faced off in the Champions League, they were looking ahead to a final in Istanbul. History loves to rhyme, as Mark Twain once said, and yet again the Rossoneri and the Nerazzurri look to book their ticket to the Turkish capital. 

This meeting marks the third time the two sides have done battle in Europe’s biggest club competition, and AC Milan have yet to lose a single meeting. They drew both matches in the 2002 semifinal, going through on away goals. Later in 2005, they won the first leg 2-0, and were up 1-0 in the second leg before the infamous flare incident caused the match to be abandoned.

While none of the players involved in those matches will take the pitch, the utter contempt and dislike for the other team is still quite evident. This will be the fourth Derby this season between the sides, with the league matchups being split. Inter holds the advantage — having knocked Milan out of the Coppa Italia as well — but the two teams aren’t quite in the same spot as they were the last time they played. 

Inter has found their spark again, winners of five straight in all competitions after a dismal stretch that saw them win just one of nine matches. Lautaro Martinez is in a terrific run of form, with five goals in that timeframe, while Romelu Lukaku has added three of his own. Inter have kept four clean sheets as well, with only Lazio breaking their defenses.

On the other side of the San Siro, Milan have been struggling down the stretch. They’ve seen their hold on a Champions League spot slip from their grasp, taking just 14 points of 30 on offer over their last 10 Serie A matches.

While they’ve lost only twice in that span, draws against Cremonese, Empoli, and Salernitana have been bitter pills to swallow. A 2-0 win over Lazio at the weekend puts them in good spirits heading into this match, but the loss of winger Rafael Leao after just 11 minutes puts his status in jeopardy.

Stefano Pioli indicated on Tuesday morning that Leao was training alone, and could be just as likely to start as he is to not even make the team sheet. “With his quality and characteristics he must be at 100%,” Pioli said, and he’s exactly right: a hobbled Leao simply isn’t a threat to Inter.

And that’s why as much as it pains me to do as a Milan fan, I’ve got to back Inter to win the first leg. Milan’s win over Lazio was a good one, but it came against a side that has lost three of their last four and is backsliding hard. Inter won at Roma over the weekend and looked impressive, and they’ve simply had Milan’s number the past few seasons. 

Without Leao to terrorize their defense, it’s hard to see them being able to offset what Inter’s attack will throw at them. Take Inter to eke out a win in what should be a tense, low-scoring affair. 

My best bet: Inter Milan moneyline (+155 at Unibet)

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AC Milan vs Inter Milan side analysis

Given we gave out a side already for our best bet, there’s only a few more items to touch on. AC Milan are unbeaten in their last seven matches in league play, as well as their last nine in all competitions. However, just four of those have been victories, all coming by way of a clean sheet. Milan reached the semifinal by knocking out Serie A champions Napoli with a 2-1 aggregate win. 

Given the two sides share a stadium, there is no true “road” or “home” side here. The stands will be evenly split and separated, and it’ll be one of the most amazing environments in all of club soccer. It also means home and away are taken out of the equation on the 3-way line, and that’s why Inter still have a solid price despite being favored to win.

Milan and the draw are both paying out nearly equal to one another in the +210 range, if you fancy taking the Rossoneri to come out on top. 

AC Milan vs Inter Milan Over/Under analysis

The Under is by far the most popular play on the market, with the Under 2.5 requiring juice upwards of -160 across the board. Given the nature of which these two teams tend to defend in big matches, it makes complete sense — even though four of the last six meetings have seen at least three goals scored. 

Milan’s last eight matches have all featured no more than two goals, and Milan have conceded just four times in that span. Meanwhile, Inter have conceded only one goal over their last five, but have pushed the total into the Over territory in four of their last six as they’ve scored 18 goals of their own in that span.

With Leao missing, and the return leg being in this same stadium, I don’t see a lot of scoring in this fixture. Both managers are going to set up to limit the possibility of getting run off the pitch, and I anticipate a performance more like the 1-0 Inter win in February than the 3-0 and 3-2 scorelines we saw earlier in the season. Unfortunately, I’d stay away from the total given the juice involved, and I don’t see much value in the first half total either. 

AC Milan vs Inter Milan game info

Location: Santiago Bernabeu Stadium, Madrid, Spain
Date: Tuesday, May 9, 2023
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: Paramount+

AC Milan vs Inter Milan key injuries

AC Milan: Rafael Leao F (Doubtful), Zlatan Ibrahimovic F (Out), Tommaso Pobega M (Out). 
Inter Milan: Milan Skriniar D (Out), Robin Gosens M (Out), Danilo D’Ambrosio D (Doubtful). 

AC Milan vs Inter Milan weather

While things might be hot and heated on the pitch, the temperatures in the low 60s will be a pleasant reprieve to all at the San Siro. No rain is anticipated, and light breezes shouldn’t have any bearing on proceedings. 

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