Another Democratic Party primary has shifted odds at prediction markets. After last week’s bruising Michigan Senate primary, this week the Democrats’ battle hopped across Lake Michigan, where Francesca Hong somehow lost the Wisconsin Democratic primary for Governor to David Crowley.
With Wisconsin Governor odds among the noisiest in the nation, and Republicans trying to take back the seat they lost in 2018, the stakes are high.
Wisconsin Governor odds
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The chaos of the Democratic primary
As late as April of this year, Democrats were overwhelming favorites to win, by Wisconsin Governor odds, peaking around 84%. The market assumed that Democrats would win largely because of the national environment. Despite Wisconsin voting for Trump in 2024, Wisconsin Democrats held a Senate seat that year. The assumption was that one of the many establishment-friendly candidates would win the primary and be comfortably ahead going into November.
And then all hell broke loose.
Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley had to drop out because he had no support, before current Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez had to drop out of the race because of a series of false financial declarations from her campaign. When that happened, retiring Democratic Governor Tony Evers endorsed Crowley’s return to the race over former Lieutenant Governor and 2022 Senate candidate Mandela Barnes. Barnes would then drop out in the subsequent days because of allegations of improper sexual behavior. All of this left the door open for Hong to grab the lead.
Hong’s path to the nomination
Hong, a Democratic Socialists of America member and state representative from Madison, has taken a series of unpopular views over the years, ranging from supporting police abolition and voting against an anti-grooming bill to hating Thanksgiving because it is a form of colonialism. Her appearance on Fox News stoked even more concern about her, but the assumption was her stumbles were too late to matter.
They weren’t.
Comeback Crowley?
Democrats consolidated behind Crowley, led by Tony Evers’ endorsement. Despite Crowley’s relatively limited statewide profile, the Evers endorsement led to a significant boost in his performance, culminating in an extremely narrow victory over Hong. Democratic chances in Wisconsin Governor odds have rebounded from 39% Tuesday afternoon to 65% now, as Crowley’s win reassures Democrats they can win the general election against Republican Tom Tiffany.
Tiffany, who signed an amicus brief to try to overturn the 2020 election and who has repeatedly supported abortion restrictions, won his primary easily Tuesday night. Election deniers paid a price in 2022, losing key races across swing states including Wisconsin. With Tiffany signing the amicus brief in Texas v Pennsylvania - the right’s most explicit attempt at overturning the 2020 election - prediction markets see Democrats as clear favorites with a nominee in the mainstream. With Crowley, markets think they have one.
Can Republicans capitalize?
Democrats go into any general election in a normally purple state with an advantage this year, due to Donald Trump’s unpopularity and the national environment being ~7.5% bluer than 2024. In a state Donald Trump won by less than a point, with a reasonably popular retiring Democratic incumbent, Democrats should be favored this year, unless they do something stupid.
Governors’ races can be much swingier than Senate or Presidential elections. Democrats currently hold the governorships of Kentucky and Kansas, both states that have voted for Trump 3 times by double digits. Republicans have the governorship of Vermont and New Hampshire, both Clinton-Biden-Harris states. In recent memory, Republicans have won Virginia, while Democrats have won Louisiana - both states that voted for the other party by double digits before they flipped at the Gubernatorial level.
Unlike federal races like the Senate or the Presidency, governors’ races are often much more about state politics and the quality of the candidates. With Hong as the presumptive nominee, Democrats were probably going to lose despite a good environment, like Republicans lost to an independent in Alaska in 2014 or when Democrats failed to beat Republicans in Maryland or Massachusetts in 2018. Now? They’re 75% favorites.
Had Hong won the Democratic primary, her statements about the colonial nature of Thanksgiving and her decision to vote against tougher penalties for groomers would have dominated the debate.
Now, Tiffany’s Freedom Caucus membership, right-wing voting record in Congress, and election denialism will be front and center. That’s why Wisconsin Governor odds have shifted so much upon Hong’s shocking loss, and why Democrats are so much higher this morning. Prediction market odds see Democrats as having dodged a bullet last night - and, according to prediction market election odds, maybe holding a key swing-state governorship in the process.
