Live midterm elections odds
Below are the most up-to-date odds on the most intriguing midterm elections on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket. With control of both chambers of Congress up in the air, plus governors’ races in key swing states, the stakes have rarely been higher. Midterm election odds can change quickly, so getting the most up-to-date odds is crucial.
LIVE Prediction Market ODDs
| Market Name | KALSHI | POLYMARKET |
|---|---|---|
| Which party will win U.S. Senate? | Republicans 56% Democrats 45% |
Republicans 55% Democrats 44% |
| Which party will win U.S. House? | Democrats 84% Republicans 16% |
Republicans 85% Democrats 15% |
| Texas Senate Winner? | Republicans 58% Democrats 42% |
Republicans 58% Democrats 45% |
| Michigan Senate Winner? | Democrats 71% Republicans 29% |
Democrats 70% Republicans 30% |
| Maine Senate Winner? | Democrats 62% Republicans 38% |
Democrats 65% Republicans 38% |
| Georgia Senate Winner? | Democrats 90% Republicans 9% |
Democrats 92% Republicans 10% |
| North Carolina Senate Winner? | Democrats 90% Republicans 10% |
Democrats 91% Republicans 11% |
Data verified on July 27, 2026
Why midterm odds can add up to more than 100%Most popular midterm prediction markets
With so many races on the ballot in November, some races are getting more attention than others. With primaries still to come in important states like Michigan and Arizona, plus breaking news that could change the landscape in key races, these are the races where people are trading and the odds are moving.
Highest-volume Midterm Markets
| Market Name | KALSHI | POLYMARKET |
|---|---|---|
| Which party will win U.S. House? | $19 million | $8.8 million |
| Congress Balance of Power? | $8.5 million | $8.8 million |
| Which party will win U.S. Senate? | $6.1 million | $3.2 million |
| Texas Senate Winner? | $6.3 million | $600,000 |
| Maine Senate Winner? | $3.6 million | $1 million |
| Republican Senate seats after midterms? | $256,000 | $2.71 million |
| Republican House seats after midterms? | $2.2 million | $275,000 |
| North Carolina Senate Winner? | $1.3 million | $81,000 |
Data verified on July 27, 2026
Senate Control odds
With Democrats favored to win the House, most of the country's attention on politics is focused on control of the Senate. With Republicans holding a 53-47 majority in the Senate and Vice President JD Vance breaking 50-50 ties in favor of Republicans, Democrats need to pick up four seats this November to win control of the Senate. Republicans are currently 57% to win the Senate, per Kalshi.
The seven true battleground Senate races – Texas, Maine, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Nebraska – will decide control of the Senate. If the odds in safe seats are accurate, Democrats will need to win four of the seven competitive races to take the Senate. Right now, they’re favored by market odds in four races, but narrow shifts in the odds could make all the difference in Senate control.
There are 35 seats up for grabs this November, but the vast majority of states are considered safe for the party that holds them, per prediction market probabilities. There are 23 states where the incumbent party has a greater-than-90 % chance of winning the seat again, thereby considerably reducing the number of competitive seats. Another five states have the leading party with odds between 80% and 90%, including Democrats to flip North Carolina’s Senate seat.
House Control odds
Democrats need to overcome a 220-215 deficit in the House of Representatives to flip the chamber. Donald Trump’s election in 2024 saw Republicans keep the House after flipping it in 2022, but they will have to hold it this year with a small majority. Odds currently favor Democrats, but Republicans have been buoyed by favorable court rulings in Florida and Virginia that increase their chances of retaining control of the House.
House odds could be more volatile than usual this year. With some states redrawing their district lines going into 2026 and reducing the number of competitive districts, the importance of each individual competitive seat rises. The last three House elections have seen the winning party win with 222, 222, and 220 seats, barely above the 218-seat majority threshold for House control. All of this means that House control markets could be volatile as we learn more in key battleground districts.
Battleground states odds
The races for Senate control and control of Governor’s Mansions across America will come down to key battleground states. With statewide races heating up everywhere, there are plenty of key states with lots of interesting races.
Follow this space for the most recent news and market probabilities.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket midterm odds
Several prediction market apps, including Kalshi and Polymarket, offer political prediction markets that are similar but not identical. They offer odds on Senate Control, House Control, who will win the Governor and Senate races across the country, and on individual House races. Odds are driven by the trades people on each site make, and it’s possible that one site’s users might have a different take on a poll or a news story. Searching for the best possible odds for the trade you want to make is important.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi use official sources to resolve markets, which can mean that results unofficially certain on election night may take some time to be officially paid out. When looking at odds, especially in volatile or changing markets, be sure to stay on top of the latest news, because in dynamic markets that shift as people trade, missing information could be the difference between winning and losing.
How to read prediction market odds
Prediction markets don’t represent their prices like a traditional sportsbook, but their odds are intuitive. If a party has a $0.62 price, that means the market is saying there’s a 62% chance of it happening. Prediction markets aren’t polls; they’re the consensus of what traders in that market think will happen.
Markets with more trades and more dollars traded will be more stable, but newer or less-traded markets may move significantly as people start trading in them. Additionally, polls and predictions can move traders’ opinions. Polls are snapshots of where a race stands at the time of the poll, whereas prediction markets are about what will happen. Models attempt to use quantifiable information, including polls and other metrics, to predict the current state of play.
Midterm Election Odds
There are all sorts of midterm election odds, from key Senate and Governor races in big states to House seats across the country. Democrats are the favorites for House Control, while Republicans are narrowly ahead in Senate control odds.
Prediction markets allow you to trade on midterm elections securely. Whether you want to trade on who will control your home state or you’re interested in races with national implications, prediction markets let you trade on the midterms.
Political trading on Kalshi is protected by federal law. There are strict rules against insider trading, but otherwise, Kalshi’s political markets are legal.
Yes, Polymarket is available in the U.S., but only on the CFTC-regulated Polymarket U.S. app. The dot-com international Polymarket version is blocked.
Polls are snapshots of a given period, whereas prediction markets reflect what traders think will happen by election day. Polls answer one question: who is up and who is down right now. That question is worth considering, but it isn’t the only way to determine who will win in November.
The dynamic Midterm election odds adjust as people make trades and as market information changes. As people make their decisions about who to back, the markets react, moving where the action takes them.
Who will win the House is one of the biggest markets by trading volume on Kalshi, followed quickly by Senate control. Other big markets include the Mayor of Los Angeles and the California Governor, but those markets have seen sharp downturns in volume since the end of the California primary in early June. With the national spotlight on Texas, it’s no surprise that Texas’ Senate race is also high on the list of most traded markets, as is the controversial Maine Senate race.
Right now, prediction market odds show the race for Senate Control will come down to 7 states – Texas, Maine, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Nebraska – where the leading party has less than an 80% chance of winning. Assuming there are no upsets in races rated safer by odds, Senate Control will come down to those seven races.
If Democrats want to flip House Control or Republicans want to retain the House, seats like Arizona’s 1st, Iowa’s 1st, New Jersey’s 7th, and Pennsylvania’s 7th will be crucial deciders. With 435 seats up for grabs this November, there are too many to name, but Michigan’s 10th, Nebraska’s 2nd, and Colorado’s 8th are all also worth keeping an eye on.
