White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt has officially stepped down to enjoy extended maternity leave. And that means a certain West Wing Briefing Room role is currently up for grabs.
It also means another hotly-traded prediction market for the next White House Press Secretary. The question is, will traders be proven correct about Donald Trump's next spokesperson?
After recent news that FOX had let her go, Maria Bartiromo became the slight favorite over Scott Jennings on the Kalshi market. But her price has since dropped, putting her in third place as Jennings and Anna Kelly vie for the lead.
Traders continue to jostle for space as they guess which of the top contenders might be next behind the White House lectern. An announcement is expected soon, so it's getting increasingly volatile on Kalshi.
Next White House Press Secretary: Latest Prices
Kalshi traders are already pricing in potential replacements to Karoline Leavitt but we’re yet to hear any official announcements from the White House as to who that might be.
We’ve got everyone from administration insiders to media personalities on the board, and early price movement already gives a fascinating insight into how traders feel about the inner workings of Trump’s media strategy.
As the odds fluctuate, there’ll be plenty of opportunities for traders who act quickly.
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Key Takeaways:
- Scott Jennings Had the Lead...: Jennings was 20% briefly before a fightback from stalwart, Anna Kelly.
- The Anna Kelly value play: We originally tipped Principal Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly at 16¢. She is jostling for the #1 spot with Jennings at a consistent 19%.
- Bartiromo Falls Behind: News of Maria Bartiromo’s departure from Fox News resulted in a sudden jump in her ‘Yes’ price before momentum slowed. Value hunters have taken advantage, helping her back into third.
- Underpriced value: Political aide and presenter Natalie Harp (5¢ and rising) offers good potential profitability given the very low price.
Top Contenders for Next White House Press Secretary
Now that White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt is stepping down, the race is on to see who will take over the West Wing podium.
Prediction markets are moving fast as traders put money on who President Trump will name to drive the administration’s media strategy. Here’s how the top contenders stack up on Kalshi.
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Market / Event |  |
Buy 'Yes' | Buy 'No' |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🦅 Anna Kelly | 19% | 18¢ | 83¢ |
| 📺 Scott Jennings | 17% | 17¢ | 84¢ |
| ✍️ Maria Bartiromo | 14% | 13¢ | 91¢ |
| 📝 Roma Daravi | 9% | 8¢ | 94¢ |
| 📣 Danielle Alvarez | 5% | 5¢ | 96¢ |
The Best Value Options on the Next White House Press Secretary Market
Prediction markets offer huge profits to those who can correctly guess the outcome of a question like this one, but there’s also money to be made from finding any discrepancies between public perception and real probability.
Value picks are the options on the board that may have more or less of a chance of being named that the market currently states. Here are a few to consider.
🦅Anna Kelly | 'Yes' 18¢
Anna Kelly is the Principal Deputy Press Secretary, so it would make sense if she were next to be offered Leavitt’s role.
Traders took the same view, briefly propelling her to the top of the Kalshi board before she settled back down into third place.
Having taken on an increasingly prominent television role during foreign policy briefings, Kelly has the proven briefing room experience, and she’s already got an established rapport with the White House press corps. Oh, and she's a former beauty queen. Just sayin'.
At 18¢, the market was underpricing one of the most obvious choices on the board. That price represents value for someone who has all the experience.
📺Scott Jennings | 'Yes' 17¢
Scott Jennings was the runaway favorite following Alina Habba's "exit" from the race.
He is an experienced political commentator and a decent buy: the 17¢ represents even better value.
Jennings has the qualities Trump values (such as that fierce television defense), and he’s already anchored prime-time cable panels.
At 17¢ for a 'Yes' contract, the risk-to-reward ratio is still decent, and traders could well use this one as a flip opportunity if rumors start to circulate about Jennings being in the running.
✍️Maria Bartiromo | ‘Yes’ 13¢
Journalist and author Maria Bartiromo briefly jumped into first place on this board after FOX let her go for allegedly leaking company information. Bartiromo has denied the allegations, but traders think a new role at the White House could have something to do with it.
On September 3, Fox said: “We thank Maria for her work over the last 12½ years and wish her all the best on her next chapter,” adding her departure would happen “immediately.”
Hours later, media watchdog Status confirmed that the decision was made following revelations that Bartiromo had leaked confidential directives to the White House.
Kalshi traders lept into action, putting money on the FOX Business anchor to take the White House press secretary role. She is free now that she’s no longer hosting Mornings with Maria on the FOX Business channel.
However, Aidan McLaughlin, Vanity Fair’s Washington Correspondent, has already damped out those rumours with an X post stating: “Bartiromo is not leaving for a job in the Trump admin, I’m told.”
The ex-Mornings with Maria anchor laid low, surfacing this week for the first time since her FOX exit. Bartiromo's price to become the next U.S. press secretary jumped 10 points this week after being seen at a public event with Melania Trump. Are Kalshi traders reading the room right?
📝Roma Daravi | 'Yes' 8¢
One cultural center's loss could be the White House's gain. Roma Daravi is - or was - the top spokesperson for the Kennedy Center.
However, major layoffs have happened following a legal challenge to Donald Trump's rebranding of the center. One of those layoffs? Roma Daravi.
Daravi was actually deputy director of strategic communications under Trump. Therefore, she has the experience to handle tha Trump administration.
She also helped promote the Trump Kennedy Center Fund to "recognize Trump's significant contributions and dedication" to the Kennedy Center. How's that for loyalty?
⚖️Alina Habba | 'No' 96.9¢
Lawyer Alina Habba was a 31¢ 'Yes' and 69¢ 'No' a few weeks ago. If you bought at that price, you may well have got a bargain.
Talk was centered around Alina Habba until she took to X to rule herself out.
“Flattered by the Kalshi odds, but I’m not in the running for any job,” Habba posted last month.
"However, if I’m getting a new one, I’d love for one of these anonymous sources to let me know first. Fake news remains the undefeated champ…well…until I come at them."
Habba previously served as Counselor to the President in Donald Trump's administration, and is a well-known name in the mix.
We questioned whether she was really more likely to make the move to White House press secretary than Anna Kelly. But now, she’s made the decision a simple one for traders.
Habba has been a controversial figure alongside Trump, depsite their close relationship. She was the lead attorney on Trump's unsuccessful case against E. Jean Carroll. She was also blocked from becoming U.S. attorney for New Jersey. Maybe those roadblocks have deterred her?
Contracts like these enable traders to exploit what looks likely to be a crowd overreaction to a high-profile name being discussed in the media.
Strategy Tips for Trading Politics Markets
Success on prediction markets relies on a combination of speed, data analysis and the careful monitoring of breaking news stories.
White House staffing decisions are finalized in small inner circles before any big announcements are made, though, and that’s why odds can swing so dramatically on markets like this one before they’re resolved.
Here are a few tips to bear in mind before you select your contracts and make a purchase.
• Track The Headlines: Keep close tabs on reporting from political writers and official West Wing pool reports: that’s where you’ll spot early signals.
• Use Hype Cycles: Buy undervalued candidates ahead of Sunday talk show appearances and exit your position if prices spike following any temporary media buzz.
• Hedge Exposure: Balance high-probability but low-yield 'No' positions against small, high-upside 'Yes' positions to limit your level of risk.
How to Trade White House Press Secretary Odds on Kalshi
As a fully regulated U.S. exchange, Kalshi lets traders buy and sell direct event contracts on real-world outcomes. Setting up an account and placing your first trade only takes a few minutes. Here’s how to do it.
- Account Setup: Register on Kalshi and link your bank account to deposit trading funds securely.
- Navigate: Search for "Press Secretary" or find the contract under the Politics tab.
- Execute: Choose your preferred candidate and select either 'Yes' or 'No' shares based on your analysis.
- Monitor: Hold until resolution verified by news outlets or exit early by selling your shares as market prices shift.
Next White House Press Secretary FAQs
Principal Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly currently leads the prediction markets at an implied probability of 22%. Her high standing is driven by her existing briefing experience and regular television appearances defending administration policies. Close behind her are former legal spokesperson Alina Habba and personal aide Natalie Harp.
The market resolves to 'Yes' for the person who first officially begins serving as White House Press Secretary after the market issuance. Resolution is officially verified using reporting from The New York Times and formal White House announcements. Acting or interim service counts toward the final market resolution according to platform rules.
Trading 'No' contracts allows market participants to bet against high-profile candidates who face significant structural barriers to taking the role. Because press secretary markets are mutually exclusive, multiple popular figures will inevitably resolve to 'No'. This creates consistent opportunities for risk-conscious traders seeking steady capital returns.
Yes, traders can buy or sell their event contracts at any point before the market officially closes. This flexibility enables investors to lock in profits if a candidate’s odds rise following breaking media reports. You do not need to wait for final resolution to exit a position.
