As we approach the one-year anniversary of the start of President Trump’s second term, we can expect to see some of the cast of season 2 of ‘The President’s Apprentice’ to start falling by the wayside.
In Washington, job security is usually measured in decades, but in this administration, it’s could be measured in tweets.
Key Takeaways
• Kash Patel currently sits on the hot seat as the most likely departure, with the market pricing in a coin-flip chance of his exit.
• Amy Gleason, the official head of the DOGE Service, follows closely as traders weigh the sustainability of her "behind-the-scenes" role.
• The market for timing is remarkably aggressive, with an overwhelming 88% probability that at least one Cabinet-rank official departs before 2027.
This intense interest and public debate are the primary reasons we've created a theoretical betting market to explore the potential outcomes.
With the Trump Cabinet prediction markets serving as a real-time barometer of administrative friction. The landscape is complex and volatile, however. Our analysis dives deep into the most likely contenders, the potential upsets, and the factors that could sway the outcome.
Trump Administration prediction markets: When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave?
While the ‘Yes’ for 'Before 2027' may seem bad value… it’s actually not in this market.
Through the first Trump administration there was at least one cabinet departure every year, with four a year in years two and three. No other president since the start of the 1990s had cabinet members turnover with such frequency - Trump’s 13 reappointments are more than during Clinton, W. Bush, Obama and Biden’s first terms combined (11).
Clinton, W. Bush and Obama both increased the rate of new cabinet members in their second term, with an average of 3.33 cabinet departures per year across those three presidencies.
No matter which way you slice it: there’s still value to be had in this prediction market where there’s a incredibly high likelihood of success.
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Trump Administration prediction markets: Who will leave their role in the Trump Administration before 2027?
Trump Cabinet prediction market analysis
🕵🏽 Kash Patel | Director of the FBI
Patel holds the highest price and lowest ROI for an early exit due to the high-friction nature of the FBI directorship and early reports of potential shakeups. While he’s currently leading aggressive immigration operations, the market is wary of the tension between him and Attorney General Pam Bondi over the release of sensitive files. Historically, the FBI Director role has been a lightning rod in this administration, and traders clearly expect the trend of "Kash out" to continue.
🐕 Amy Gleason | Acting Administator of the US DOGE Service
Gleason holds significant odds because of the unique "two-headed" leadership structure at the Department of Government Efficiency. While Gleason is the official Acting Administrator, the public and the President still view Elon Musk as the de facto lead.
Traders see this ambiguity as a recipe for a short tenure, especially as DOGE’s self-imposed deadline for mass cuts approaches in mid-2026.
🤫 Tulsi Gabbard | Director of National Intelligence
Despite her high-profile transition to Director of National Intelligence, the market is pricing in a 46% chance of a pre-2027 departure.
The intelligence community is notoriously resistant to outside-the-box leadership, and any major foreign policy pivot could leave her in a vulnerable position.
It’s a classic case of a high-ceiling, low-floor appointment that keeps the "Yes" side of the market very active.
Trump Cabinet prediction market sleeper
⚕️ Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | HHS Secretary
With a lower price, RFK Jr. represents the biggest potential upset for the "first to leave" crown.
While his 25% probability seems modest, his portfolio at HHS involves some of the most controversial policy shifts in the administration.
Its success hinges on his ability to navigate the federal bureaucracy; if the friction becomes too high, this sleeper pick would pay off handsomely for those betting on a dramatic exit.
