As we enter Q2 of 2026, the focus on job security in the Trump administration has moved from the cabinet to the Oval Office.
Will Donald Trump be impeached?
With the ongoing US-Iran conflict dragging, the ceasefire being breached by both sides and holes starting to show in official reports of casualties… questions are starting to be asked about the security of President Trump’s tenure.
Key Takeaways
- Will Trump be impeached? Kalshi predicts a 68% probability of it happening before 2028.
- Kristi Noem was the first member to be shown the door this year.
- Pete Hegseth is a low-risk, high return pick to leave the Trump cabinet before 2027.
In Washington, job security is usually measured in decades, but in this administration, it could be measured in tweets. Prediction sites like Kalshi are offering a variety of prediction markets around the Trump government, so let's start with who could be on the way out and when they're expected to go.
With the Trump Cabinet prediction markets serving as a real-time barometer of administrative friction. The landscape is complex and volatile, however. Our analysis dives deep into the most likely contenders, the potential upsets, and the factors that could sway the outcome.
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Trump prediction markets: Will Trump be impeached?
Trump impeachment analysis
Buy ‘Yes’ | Before Jan 1, 2027 | 16¢
This is a low risk, high reward trade: there’s a big hubbub right now over President Trump’s behaviour around the US-Iran conflict. If action will be taken inspired by this: it will likely happen before the end of 2026.
Buy ‘No’ | Before Jan 1, 2028 | 34¢
This may contradict our first pick… but it plays into one of the most important strategies to bear in mind when trading in prediction markets: ‘nothing happens’ is still an outcome.
Why is that likely? It requires a majority vote in the US House of Representatives, followed by a two-thirds majority vote in the Senate. Right now that would require over 20 Republican senators to vote against their party and support impeachment - that’s just not going to happen without something truly grave happening first to influence public opinion against the President.
Trump prediction markets: Who will leave their role in the Trump Administration before 2027?
Trump Cabinet prediction market analysis
Buy ‘Yes’ | Pete Hegseth | Secretary of Defense | 22¢
Pete Hegseth just took a public victory lap on the Iran ceasefire, but Kalshi traders are pricing in the paranoia. Behind the podium, Hegseth is actively purging top military brass - most recently forcing out the Army Chief of Staff- reportedly to protect his own job from internal rivals.
Insecure bosses make for volatile assets. Hegseth is the ultimate high-leverage sleeper bet: he’s either clearing the chessboard, or setting up his own checkmate.
Recommendation: Buy ‘Yes’. The US-Iran conflict, whether they’re willing to admit it or not, has been a consensus disaster for the US government. Someone is going to pay the price for this now or in the future: the ‘Secretary of War’ is the ideal patsy.
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DETERMINED: Trump Administration prediction markets: When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave?
While the ‘Yes’ for 'Before 2027' seemed like bad value… it actually wasn't in this market.
Through the first Trump administration there was at least one cabinet departure every year, with four a year in years two and three. No other president since the start of the 1990s had cabinet members turnover with such frequency - Trump’s 13 reappointments are more than during Clinton, W. Bush, Obama and Biden’s first terms combined (11).
Clinton, W. Bush and Obama both increased the rate of new cabinet members in their second term, with an average of 3.33 cabinet departures per year across those three presidencies.
No matter which way you sliced it: there was value to be had in this prediction market where there’s an incredibly high likelihood of success.
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