Now that we are over a full year into President Trump’s second term, we can expect to see some of the cast of season 2 of ‘The President’s Apprentice’ to start falling by the wayside.
In Washington, job security is usually measured in decades, but in this administration, it could be measured in tweets. Prediction sites like Kalshi are offering a variety of prediction markets around the Trump government, so let's start with who could be on the way out and when they're expected to go.
Key Takeaways
• Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Kristi Noem currently sit on the hot seat as the most likely departures.
• The market for timing is remarkably aggressive, with a 77% probability that at least one Cabinet-rank official departs before 2027.
This intense interest and public debate are the primary reasons we've created a theoretical betting market to explore the potential outcomes.
With the Trump Cabinet prediction markets serving as a real-time barometer of administrative friction. The landscape is complex and volatile, however. Our analysis dives deep into the most likely contenders, the potential upsets, and the factors that could sway the outcome.
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Trump Administration prediction markets: When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave?
While the ‘Yes’ for 'Before 2027' may seem like bad value… it’s actually not in this market.
Through the first Trump administration there was at least one cabinet departure every year, with four a year in years two and three. No other president since the start of the 1990s had cabinet members turnover with such frequency - Trump’s 13 reappointments are more than during Clinton, W. Bush, Obama and Biden’s first terms combined (11).
Clinton, W. Bush and Obama both increased the rate of new cabinet members in their second term, with an average of 3.33 cabinet departures per year across those three presidencies.
No matter which way you slice it: there’s still value to be had in this prediction market where there’s an incredibly high likelihood of success.
Trump Administration prediction markets: Who will leave their role in the Trump Administration before 2027?
Trump Cabinet prediction market analysis
🕵🏽 Buy 'No | Kash Patel | Director of the FBI | 56¢
Patel’s 10-year statutory term as FBI Director began just a year ago, but his mission to "deconstruct" the bureau is inherently volatile. While he is arguably the most protected loyalist in the administration, the institutional pushback from the "Deep State" he targets creates constant friction.
A 45% chance of departure feels low given the legal and political firestorms surrounding his tenure, but his exit would only likely occur if he were moved to a more senior role (like National Security Advisor) or if a massive scandal occurred.
Recommendation: Buy 'No'. Patel is the "tip of the spear" for the President’s second-term agenda; he is unlikely to leave unless forced by external legal pressure.
🐕 Buy 'Yes' | Amy Gleason | Acting Administator of the US DOGE Service | 48¢
Gleason’s position is unique; while she is the acting administrator of the U.S. DOGE Service (formerly USDS), the agency itself is effectively a temporary, cross-departmental "disruptor" entity led by Elon Musk.
As a career official detailed from HHS, she provides the technical "plumbing" for Musk’s high-profile cuts. Given that DOGE was designed as a time-bound initiative (initially targeted to conclude or evolve by late 2026), her departure is largely a matter of "mission accomplished" rather than a fallout.
Recommendation: Buy 'Yes'. The temporary nature of DOGE makes her return to a standard HHS role or the private sector highly probable by year-end.
🤫 Avoid | Karoline Leavitt | White House Press Secretary
The youngest Press Secretary in history has proven herself to be a combative and effective "MAGA" communicator. While the burnout rate for this role is notoriously high—and she was recently assigned a smaller West Wing office than her predecessors—she retains the President’s confidence.
Recent briefings show she is leaning into the "new media" landscape, which keeps her in favor.
At 47%, the market is betting on the trend of Press Secretary turnover, but Leavitt’s stamina has exceeded early expectations.
Recommendation: Avoid. The price is fairly efficient. One high-profile "podium mishap" could spike this, but she currently lacks a clear replacement.
🏠 Buy 'Yes' | Kristi Noem | Secretary of Homeland Security | 51¢
Noem is currently under immense pressure. Following a year of record-breaking border enforcement actions, she has faced significant criticism from Congressional Democrats, including formal calls for her resignation in late 2025.
Recent reports of tension during Cabinet meetings—where the President reportedly avoided calling on her during discussions on Minneapolis enforcement—suggest her "favorite" status may be waning.
Recommendation: Buy YES. The combination of intense legislative scrutiny and cooling relations with the Oval Office makes her a prime candidate for a mid-2026 reshuffle.
⚖️ Buy 'No' | Pam Bondi | Attorney General | 47¢
Bondi remains one of the President's most steadfast loyalists, having been confirmed in early 2025 after the Gaetz withdrawal.
While she has been aggressive in pursuing the administration's legal priorities, the high-stakes nature of the DOJ often leads to rapid burnout or friction with the West Wing.
At 47%, the market is pricing in the historical volatility of this specific office under this administration. However, her deep-rooted relationship with the President provides a "loyalist buffer" that many of her predecessors lacked.
Recommendation: Buy 'No'. Her alignment with the President’s 'America First' legal arm suggests she is more likely to stay through the midterms than the coin-flip odds suggest.
