Donald Trump only named his new White House Press Secretary last week, but already Kalshi traders are weighing up her chances of keeping the job.
Katie Zacharia made her briefing room debut on Tuesday October 13, delivering a 14-minute briefing that immediately came under criticism.
Katie Zacharia Out as White House Press Secretary: Latest Odds
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Zacharia’s first day in the job saw her praise the President’s energy policies and take questions from just three media outlets before making an embarassing faux pas that commentators agreed she struggled to recover from.
The rocky briefing immediately impacted pricing on the newly launched White House Press Secretary prediction market, where traders are putting money on how long we can expect to see Zacharia at that podium for.
We spoke to body language expert Inbaal Honigam to learn more about what went well, and what didn’t at Zacharia’s debut.
Key Takeaways:
- New Year, New Press Secretary: Traders currently give a 40% probability (40¢) that Zacharia will be out before January 1, 2027.
- Short-term Stability: Short-term contracts indicate lower immediate risk, with only a 4% chance (4¢) of an exit before October 20, 2026, and 9% (9¢) before October 24, 2026.
- Long-term Outlook: Looking further ahead, the market favors an eventual departure, with 65% (65¢) priced for an exit before July 1, 2027 and 86% (86¢) before January 1, 2028.
The Current Board: Katie Zacharia Departure Timelines
After that highly scrutinized press briefing debut that lasted under 15 minutes, traders’ attention has shifted straight from who would take the podium to how long Zacharia will hold the job.
Trading volume on the "Katie Zacharia out as White House Press Secretary?" Kalshi market has now topped $270,000, as traders weigh up Zacharia’s chances, in light of both her performance and typical administration trends.
| Exit Window | |
Buy 'Yes' | Buy 'No' |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 20, 2026 | 5% | 5¢ | 97¢ |
| Before Oct 24, 2026 | 9% | 9¢ | 92¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 17% | 17¢ | 84¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 40% | 40¢ | 62¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 65% | 65¢ | 37¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 86% | 86¢ | 19¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 96% | 87¢ | 18¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 92% | 92¢ | 12¢ |
Body Language Expert: “Katie Zacharia should take delivery tips from Jen Psaki”
Speaking exclusively to Covers.com, body language expert Inbaal Honigman says Zacharia’s repeated switches between her notes and a posed smile disrupted her connection with reporters during her debut.
Honigman also spotted a “fabulous recovery” once Zacharia began answering questions though, with glimmers of the steadier expression, direct eye contact and purposeful gestures she should build on next time.
Honigman explains that body language is a huge part of the performance in a role like White House Press Secretary, and it’s something Zacharia is going to need to improve on.
Zacharia’s “overly sunny smile risks undermining her authority,” says Honigman. That, combined with her head tilt on the way in, gave her entrance a “softer, more approval-seeking feel than the occasion calls for.”
“Zacharia’s introductory smile is not a politician’s smile. Instead, she flashes a beauty queen grin. Teeth gleaming, cheeks high and chin lowered, her overly bright smile suggests that she seeks approval. This smile is sunny and appealing, but it does not suit the occasion.”
“A polite, simple smile and a welcoming nod would have sufficed.”
“When she tilts her head to the side, Zacharia appears to express empathy and a desire to listen, but that sends the wrong message in this setting. The attentive head tilt comes across as submissive, undermining her authority before a whole minute has elapsed.”
Take a delivery lesson from Jen Psaki
Nerves are to be expected on the first day of a job like this, of course. That alone is “neither surprising nor, in itself, a problem,” Honigman says. But it’s the lack of consistency in her delivery that has left some questioning whether she’s up to the task.
“The first day at a new job is stressful for anyone, let alone in a role that is so high-profile.”
“Watching a Jen Psaki press briefing, for instance, would have given her some body language tips. Psaki’s delivery was consistent, calm and mature, characterised by a steady, welcoming expression, frequent eye contact with members of the press and upward-facing palms that communicate honesty and authenticity.”
“Zacharia does not need to smile more. She needs a more consistent connection with the people she is addressing,” explains Honigman.
Repeated resets interrupt her message
Zacharia appeared disconnected at the podium, and Honigman explains that this could’ve been down to her tendancy to look down at her notes far too often, before smiling back at the press.
“Throughout the address, Zacharia looks down at her notes, eyes lowered and expression focused, then looks up at the press and flashes a smile. This happens repeatedly, causing her to appear uneven and unprepared,” says Honigman.
“She disconnects and reconnects repeatedly with the audience, and the effect is reminiscent of a malfunctioning robot struggling to remain plugged in.”
“Each lowered-eyes expression appears to disengage from the audience, and every new smile brings a pause. Each smiley pause has a ‘photo face’ quality: chin pointed, teeth clamped, as if posing for a picture. Those frequent resets look like repeated technical glitches, distracting from what she has to say.”
Zacharia’s “fabulous recovery” shows what she can build on
There were positives to note from yesterday’s brief appearance at the podium, though. Some of Zacharia’s exchanges with journalists did show that she is “capable of a much stronger delivery once she gets into the answer.”
“Listening to a question, Zacharia fiddles with her hair. This is not simply brushing hair away from her eyes: both hands take part in the adjustment. Touching her hair is a ‘please like me’ gesture, suggesting that she is keen to be liked by the press.”
“Interestingly, at the very moment she starts answering, Zacharia makes a fabulous recovery. Her body calms down, she directs her eye contact towards the journalist and her expression becomes serious. She nods and uses her hands to punctuate her sentences.”
“Nerves be gone! This first question and answer show that she is capable of delivering a good response once she has overcome her initial nerves.”
Taking inspiration from Angela Merkel
One gesture of quiet authority reminded Honigman of powerful political leaders like Angela Merkel.
“When discussing her new role, Zacharia brings her hands together in a diamond shape, with her thumbs and fingertips touching.”
“This is a classic political gesture, famously associated with Angela Merkel. It can convey determination and focus without aggression, giving the hands a settled position rather than allowing them to fidget.”
It’s an important moment to note, because it shows “how she can project authority without becoming forceful,” says Honigman.
New Press Secretary better prepared when she knows how to respond
Honigman noted Zacharia’s handling of a question she didn’t yet have the answer to. “When Zacharia is asked a question she does not know the answer to, she appears reassured by knowing the right thing to say. Maintaining uninterrupted eye contact, she lowers her head in a serious manner and says, ‘I’ll have to get back to you on that.’
“She appears better prepared, knowing how to respond to the challenging query.”
When she is engaged in responding, she can look settled and confident. But while she waits, those restless movements return.
“At her next briefing, she should aim to carry the composure of those stronger answers into the moments between them: settled hands, attentive eye contact and a calm expression.”
“Her authority is strongest when she engages directly with the journalist, rather than repeatedly resetting her smile or retreating into her papers.”
The Best Value Picks on the Katie Zacharia Departure Market
Finding value in markets like this one isn’t just about picking the timing of a resignation. It also means identifying any timelines on the board where sentiment might have overreacted to recent news, like the underwhelming performance we saw at Zacharia’s first White House briefing.
Instances like this give traders the opportunity to snap up mispriced contracts that can potentially be sold on for profits when markets adjust in the near future. Here are a few to consider right now.
Exit Before Jan 1, 2027 | 'Yes' 40¢
At 40¢ (a 40% implied probability), this contract offers a balanced risk-reward ratio for traders anticipating an early change in the White House communications team.
Media commentary following Zacharia's brief debut briefing was far from complimentary. If we see any restructuring before the new year, that brand new role could well be handed to another one of the names traders were backing last week.
Exit Before Oct 20, 2026 | 'No' 97¢
The profits on this one are admittedly small, but that reflects the realistic chance of Zacharia being fired within a week. While her first performance might not have been as confident or commanding as some might’ve hoped, it’s highly unlikely that Trump will choose to let her go immediately.
Exit Before Nov 1, 2026 | 'Yes' 17¢
Trading at 17¢ (17% probability), this shorter-term contract is definitely worth considering. If you think that initial press room friction is an obstacle that won’t easily be overcome, keep an eye on the prices of these ‘Yes’ contracts. At 17¢, the rewards will be significant if sentiment continues to deteriorate.
Exit Before Jul 1, 2027 | 'Yes' 65¢
Priced at 65¢ (65% probability), this is one of the most likely scenarios. Given what we know about historic turnover rates for a job like this, a six to nine month window seems reasonable.
Given the immense pressure and public scrutiny, roles like this one are usually passed on within 12 months. So if you’re looking a bit further ahead and don’t expect an immediate firing or resignation, this could be your best option.
How to Trade White House Press Secretary Odds on Kalshi
Kalshi allows verified U.S. users to trade binary event contracts directly on real-world political and news outcomes. Getting started takes only a few straightforward steps:
- Account Setup: Complete registration on Kalshi and link a funding source to deposit capital.
- Navigate: Use the search function for "Katie Zacharia" or browse the Politics category to locate the target contract.
- Execute: Choose your target exit date bracket and order 'Yes' or 'No' shares based on your probability assessment.
- Monitor: Manage your position by holding until official resolution or selling shares early as market prices adjust.
Katie Zacharia Out as White House Press Secretary FAQs
The market resolves based on official White House announcements or credible reporting confirming she is no longer Press Secretary. Kalshi verifies official administrative changes before settling contracts as 'Yes' or 'No'.
Press secretary positions carry intense scrutiny and high turnover rates historically over multi-year periods. As the time window expands, the cumulative probability of a staff change naturally increases on prediction markets.
Yes, traders can exit positions early by selling held 'Yes' or 'No' contracts back to the order book. This allows market participants to lock in profits or mitigate losses as odds fluctuate with daily news.
If she steps down from the specific role of Press Secretary, 'Yes' contracts for that time frame resolve positively. The market explicitly tracks her holding of the Press Secretary title rather than general administration employment.
