The 2026 midterms drastically altered the political makeup of state governments across much of the country, setting new trajectories on a wide range of issues. Though far from the most pressing issue in most voters’ minds, these changes establish a new, increased probability of significant gambling changes.
- Minnesota sports betting leads the projections at 45% following expanded DFL control of the legislature.
- New leadership in Texas and Georgia raises projected gambling expansion chances to 35% and 30%, respectively.
- Ohio iGaming and South Carolina sports betting gain openings, but legislative opposition remains a hurdle.
Gambling policy change has become increasingly difficult, and I estimate there’s less than a 50% chance any sizeable action is taken in the next two years. Still, here are five states where new leadership could spark big moves and a projection of likelihood of those changes.
5) South Carolina Sports Betting: 0% → 15%
Outgoing South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster was among the most stringent anti-gambling policymakers in any state. He had plenty of support among fellow conservative lawmakers, but McMaster’s steadfast opposition was basically enough to squash any sports betting legalization effort.
Replacing a fellow Republican, incoming Gov. Alan Wilson is not nearly as opposed to gambling, even publicly backing legalizing sports betting. While he has a similar aversion to brick-and-mortar casino gaming, South Carolina now has someone in office who appears unlikely to veto legislative action.
The bigger issue remains the legislature getting the bill to his desk.
With McMaster’s veto threat gone, it will likely inspire supporters to file a new sports betting bill for the 2027 legislative session. The bigger obstacle remains the legislature. The Senate's partisan makeup was largely unchanged, while Republicans also retained control of the state House. Many of the same lawmakers who opposed gambling expansion will return.
An open mind atop the executive branch no doubt boosts odds, but it may still be an uphill political climb to allow sports betting in a state long resistant to gambling expansion.
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4) Ohio iGaming: 0% → 20%
Outgoing Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine signed his state’s online sports betting bill into law but left office calling that approval his biggest regret in office. He steadfastly opposed real-money online casino gaming despite some support from fellow Republicans and effectively squashed any serious effort during his final years in office.
His replacement, Democrat Amy Acton, has backed iGaming legalization. There are business-minded Republicans returning that will also support iGaming expansion.
But there are plenty of Republicans in what remains a GOP legislature that will not back iGaming, including some who sponsored legislation to repeal the state’s sports betting law. And though it's far too early to tell what her relationship with the Ohio legislature will be, other states have had fraught relationships when lawmakers and the governor are from different parties, making passing any legislation difficult.
Add this to the logistical difficulty of passing iGaming legislation, especially in a state where multiple brick-and-mortar casino operators vehemently oppose it. Acton’s election is a step toward passage, but iGaming legalization has been difficult in most statehouses, especially those with the political and gambling dynamics of Ohio.
3) Georgia casinos and/or sportsbooks: 5% → 30%
Unlike other Republican governors on the list, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp did not present an unwavering obstacle to the major gambling issues discussed by lawmakers in his state. Personally opposed, he said he wouldn’t stand in the way of voter-backed referendums, particularly those that expanded the popular state lottery’s education funding.
Most of the problems instead stemmed largely from legislative dysfunction.
Lawmakers used sports betting in multiple sessions as a political football over unrelated political issues, with different parties withdrawing support over opposition to other matters such as voting rights. Meanwhile, lawmakers weren’t sure if they had the power to approve gaming under law, or if it required voter approval, setting up conflicting legislative approaches that helped stall progress.
Incoming Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms enters office explicitly backing casino referendum legislation. Sports betting support is unclear, but a push for the state’s first-ever brick-and-mortar casino could help clear the way for legal online sportsbooks, either separately or as part of a larger gambling package.
Political issues remain in the statehouse, even with Democrats flipping the House of Representatives. And a Republican Senate and Democratic House present their own problems.
Still, any gambling effort was going to require bipartisan support. Now a new wave of Georgia elected officials, including the largest Democratic representation in a generation, creates a new political landscape to finally push gambling expansion across the finish line.
2) Texas casinos and/or sportsbooks: 0% → 35%
Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick was one of the few politicians nationwide that seemed to have a firmer gambling opposition than South Carolina’s McMaster. His position under Texas law gave him effective control of the Senate, which he routinely used to fight off gambling bills, saying his fellow Republicans didn’t want to discuss it.
Patrick will leave office in one of the more unexpected election results of the 2026 cycle, to be replaced with a Democrat in Vikki Goodwin, who publicly backed a future ballot measure to approve casinos and sportsbooks. She will likely have allies in the newly Democrat-controlled Texas House of Representatives, giving the majority of votes to a party that has, at least in the Lone Star State, traditionally been more supportive of gambling expansion.
But while she will serve as Senate president, Lt. Gov.-elect Goodwin will still face conservative opposition in what remains a GOP-controlled upper chamber. If the House passes casino or sports betting ballot measures, Goodwin and other supporters will still have to pick up support among a conservative-leaning group that largely agreed with Patrick’s gambling aversion.
Still, the Democratic influx gives gambling supporters, some of whom have contributed millions to the cause, hope that wouldn’t exist had Republicans maintained control.
1) Minnesota sportsbooks: 5% → 45%
Democrats have a clear legislative path to legal sports betting. It’s just less clear who will vote for it.
Minnesota’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) took firm majorities in both the state House of Representatives and Senate after years of split or narrow control. The narrow margins and political infighting stalled much of the state’s legislative agenda and helped kill comparatively minor issues like legal sports betting. The parties, like most other issues, were also split on how sports betting should be run if it were passed.
Democrats routinely backed a tribe-run model, while Republicans generally favored a more expansive approach. When the state’s gaming tribes announced a deal that included money for charitable gaming and Minnesota’s two horse tracks, it appeared the path forward was clear.
But lawmakers at the committee level couldn’t agree to back sports betting in any form. Members of both parties in the narrowly split legislature voted the compromise bill down before it could make progress.
Now, at least, the election means DFL will have sole control of all House and Senate committees and will be able to direct legislative action. Sports betting will still logistically need Republican votes to pass - and many DFL members still oppose gambling expansion - but a road forward has emerged after the elections, boosting hopes a sports betting bill can finally break through.
