As President Donald Trump weighs another round of strikes, prediction markets indicate there’s little chance of a U.S.-Iran Nuclear agreement before 2027.
Speaking to reporters in front of Air Force One, President Trump said that the frenzy surrounding the midterm elections had not distracted his focus from Iran. Instead of suggesting peace is on the way, he sent a stern warning to his adversaries.
Trump’s plans for Iran
CNN reported over the weekend that industry leader Kalshi generated over $1.1 billion in trading volume in its midterm election prediction markets. That total is expected to rise significantly as the Nov. 3 ballot day approaches.
Trump has supported campaigns in key battleground states and traditional Red states over the last couple of days. He stopped in Texas, Iowa, and Mississippi, among others, and plans to stop in Ohio, Florida, and South Carolina.
Kalshi, Polymarket, and other trading platforms offer contracts on House, Senate, and gubernatorial races, as well as general questions, including which party wins a majority in either congressional chamber. But as Americans become more familiar with the democratic process, Trump’s foreign policy is being tested.
“I think that with Iran we're in a very good position,” Trump said. “It's a question [of] when do I want to end it? Simply a question [of] when do I want to end it?
“And they want to make a deal. But they've wanted to make a deal, but they like tapping it along.”
According to real-time market data from Kalshi, there’s just a 2% chance that a deal with Iran is reached before Nov. 1, a 9% chance one is agreed by Dec. 1, and an 11% chance one is signed before the ball drops on New Year’s Eve. That’s based on roughly $23 million in trades from Kalshi’s user base.
As of now, the most likely outcome still has only a 38% chance. That outcome is that a deal is signed before Jan. 20, 2029, or Inauguration Day for the 48th President.
In other words, prediction markets give it about a two-in-five chance that Trump and Iran’s leadership will agree to a nuclear deal.
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Finding a solution
The conflict with Iran began in February. Temporary ceasefires were reached, but the failure to find a lasting solution undermined them.
The two nations remain at odds as of this writing. But while many Americans are thinking about next week’s ballots, Trump made it clear that he has not forgotten about Iran.
“Maybe they're waiting for the election or something, but that's not going to help them,” he said. “The election is not going to help them.
“But I think we've decimated their military; we've decimated their finances. They have no money, they have inflation — the highest in the world — 301% a couple of days ago. But we'll see what happens.”
The President also left the door open to launching more attacks at Iran after the midterms, saying that he “couldn’t tell [the answer],” but that “anything’s possible.”
Before a nuclear deal can be signed, the U.S. and Iran need to negotiate and agree to a deal. But Kalshi users believe there’s only a 23% chance the two countries will hold a diplomatic meeting before Dec. 1. The chances rise to 38% by Jan. 1, 2027, and 75% before April 1, 2027.
