The 2026 midterms are just around the corner, and with only a couple of weeks left before the polls close nationwide, the odds are more compelling than ever. The battle for the 2026 midterms rages on as Republicans try to salvage a bad polling position, while Democrats try to flip Senate seats they never thought possible.
Election predictions are difficult because of the narrow range of key seats and how important each race can be. That said, with 2026 midterm odds this competitive, intrigue runs deep.
2026 Senate race predictions
Texas Senate election prediction
Democrat James Talarico continues to lead in nearly all Texas polls. With early voting starting this week, we’ll see whether Democrats get the turnout they need in the big cities, but we won’t know whether they’re flipping disaffected Republicans and Independents as the polls suggest. Republicans face a consistent polling deficit, according to Attorney General Ken Paxton. Seven polls with October polling days show a Talarico lead in five of them. Go back to the final week of September, and both Fox and the New York Times/Siena also led Talarico.
With that many polls, and that consistent Talarico lead, Ken Paxton’s in deep trouble in a race that could decide Senate control. The problem for Republicans is they’ve raised $158M from Elon Musk to try and salvage the race, and they’re still down 3% on average. Flipping Texas would be an immense accomplishment for Democrats after many false hopes, but “It’s Texas” doesn’t fly as an argument when it’s been this consistent for this long.
Alaska Senate election prediction
Alaska polls haven’t been great for Democrats recently, with narrow leads in an Alaska Survey Research poll, but August’s primary is a leading indicator. There, Democrats got over 51% of the vote combined, and the “Other” votes for Dan Sullivan correlated well with Democratic areas, suggesting some Democratic tomfoolery kept two Dan Sullivans on the ballot in November’s Ranked Choice Voting general election.“Other” votes for Dan Sullivan correlated well with Democratic areas, suggesting some Democratic tomfoolery kept
The electorate that shows up in November would have to be radically different from the one that voted in the primary, which is unlikely given turnout was north of 2/3rds of what’s expected for Democrats to lose in November. A New York Times story alleged derogatory language from Democrat Mary Peltola, but she still appears well positioned to be the next Democratic Senator from Alaska.
Ohio Senate election prediction
Sherrod Brown is trying to run again for the other Senate seat after he lost his seat in 2024 during the Trump victory. Brown was an electoral overperformer, only losing by 4% in a year when Kamala Harris lost the state by 11%. He is running against a nominally tougher candidate, but at some point, this race is less complicated than it seems.
Sherrod’s only a slight favorite because Ohio polls have been bad, but America is swinging 8-10%, and Democrats are running a candidate who lost by only 4% the last time he was on the ballot. You can complicate that narrative, but at the end of the day, John Husted and the Republicans are significant underdogs for a reason.
Maine Senate election prediction
Susan Collins faces an uphill battle to remain the only Republican Senator from a state that voted for Kamala Harris, but she’s won tight races before. Her 2020 win shocked many after she didn't lead a poll all cycle, and this time the New York Times/Siena has her up 3%. That said, the NYT/Siena is mostly on an island, and winning a D+7 state in a year when Donald Trump is deeply unpopular is hard, especially against Troy Jackson.
Jackson, a state representative who has consistently overperformed, wasn’t the party’s original nominee. But because of Graham Platner’s controversies and chaotic departure from the race, Democrats got a top recruit who can win back Trump voters and do well enough in the state’s affluent, suburban south to knock off a political titan.
Iowa Senate election prediction
Republicans are in trouble in farm country, as Ashley Hinson tries to save the state. She’s the best-polling of the core Republican candidates, but pollsters disagree significantly. Marist has her down 3% to Democrat Josh Turek, while CNN has her up 2% and the New York Times/Siena has her up 1%.
Iowa has also been patient zero for polls that underestimated Republicans in recent years. Ann Selzer’s 2024 poll showed Kamala Harris +3 before she lost by 13, but even in 2018, a generally good Democratic year, Democrats were slight favorites to flip the Governor’s Mansion before losing by 2%. A similar story seems likely here, especially given Hinson’s electoral overperformance in her House seat.
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2026 House election predictions: Key battleground districts
New York 17th District (NY-17) prediction
New York’s 17th is one of America's most interesting districts. It’s one of only three Republican-held seats in Congress that Kamala Harris won in 2024, making it an on-paper, incredibly easy flip for Democrats. That said, it’s also one of the most Jewish seats in America, making it ripe for some amount of Republican overperformance in the midterms.
Those two countervailing trends meet in Mike Lawler, who has reliably overperformed so far. However, wave years tend to punish reliable overperformers, as partisanship becomes too much to overcome. With Lawler only two terms in Congress, he lacks the staying power he’d need to win a Harris +5 seat, especially with these midterm odds. Democratic runner Cait Conley is 58% to win on Kalshi.
Pennslvania 1st District (PA-01) prediction
Brian Fitzpatrick, in one of the other two Harris-won GOP seats, has served much longer in the House and is much more likely to win again (63% on Kalshi) despite the national headwinds. With three more competitive House seats in Pennsylvania, Democrats have treated Fitzpatrick as an afterthought in their bid to win back the House.
Fitzpatrick has been one of the best electoral performers, even in blue years, winning in 2018’s blue wave and then winning a Biden +6 district in 2020 by 13%. With Democrats focused elsewhere in the state, Fitzpatrick is a great opportunity to capitalize on mispriced midterm-election odds.
Michigan 7th District (MI-07) prediction
Democrats held this seat from 2018 to 2024, but Elissa Slotkin's elevation to the Senate left it vulnerable to flipping, and that's exactly what happened. Now Democrats are trying to win the seat back, but they're facing a Republican incumbent... and they picked the wrong candidate in the primary.
Will Lawrence still flipped the seat, but midterm election odds treat him like a generic Democrat when he’s not one. His ties to the Democratic Socialists of America and a generally left-wing outlook are risky against a Republican nominee, unless the broader environment is favorable. Lawrence’s price (64% on Kalshi) reflects a reality many Democrats wish were true, but it isn’t.
Ohio 9th District (OH-09) prediction
Democrat Marcy Kaptur has been a problem for Republicans for years. Republicans tried to draw her out of her safe northwest Ohio seat into a redder seat in 2021, before she won two more terms despite the seat getting even redder in 2024. They then redrew the map again before 2026 to try to draw her out, likely with similar results.
Eventually partisanship will knock her out, but that likely won't happen in a blue year when Democrats are winning statewide (or at least close to doing so). Kaptur’s midterm-election odds (71% on Kalshi) reflect a misunderstanding of her popularity in her district and how blue Ohio is likely to be.
Montana 1st District (MT-01) prediction
Democrat Sam Forstag is running in Montana’s far less Republican west, where Democrat Jon Tester won in 2024 but lost the rest of the state. Adding a second district to Montana has made the seat less than safe, and the party’s shambolic Senate campaign has done the same. While Republicans will win the Senate seat because Democrats and a popular independent split the vote, the combined anti-Republican vote will easily win the district. And that makes Forstag’s task easy.
Forstag doesn’t need to win over Republican voters to win this district; he just needs to consolidate voters already voting against Republicans. And at his price (63% on Kalshi), he could easily pull that off.
2026 Governor race predictions
Georgia Governor election prediction
Keisha Lance Bottoms is trying to become the first Black woman to serve as governor in U.S. history, and she has a good chance. Her chances are closely tied to Jon Ossoff, who is running for the Senate at the same time. Bottoms needs Democrats supporting Ossoff to also back her, which is why Ossoff has promised to campaign with her, support her, and spend his $26M war chest before the election, even though he faces no real danger in his Senate race.
Barack Obama's appearance in Georgia the week before the election will also help rally Black voters, who decide Georgia elections. If Democrats keep the robust Black turnout they’ve had so far in Georgia, they’ll cruise to victory in the Governor’s race, even if many Ossoff voters vote for Rick Jackson at the same time.
Ohio Governor election prediction
Vivek Ramaswamy faces significant headwinds in his bid to become Ohio's next governor. The main one is the White House and Donald Trump’s unpopularity, but he’s also facing a backlash from some of his own party. A former primary opponent just endorsed Amy Acton, the Democrat, and Vivek’s Indian heritage has been oft-cited as a reason not to support him.
With Democrats likely to have a good year in Ohio, any small slippage or lack of enthusiasm from Republicans would be a massive problem. Acton is running a standard Democratic campaign, while Vivek is seemingly unable to land a message or appear authentic. His appearance at the batting cages for a campaign video perfectly illustrates the problem: no matter what he does, someone’s mad. And that’s a problem if you want to win a swing state.
Where do prediction markets and election polls disagree?
The biggest places where polls and markets disagree right now are in traditionally Republican states that shouldn’t be, but allegedly are, competitive this year. South Carolina’s the leading example, where Darline Graham -- sister of deceased Senator Lindsay -- is only leading by 2% on average. A late September InsiderAdvantage poll puts her up only 1% from a pollster traditionally friendly to Republicans. That said, markets still give her an 82% chance of victory because South Carolina’s ruby-red.
Democrats lead on average in Kansas, with an early October YouGov poll showing Democrat Adam Hamilton winning the state by 3%, and a late September New York Times/Siena poll showing a tie. That said, Republican Roger Marshall still has a 64% chance of victory.
Biggest midterm prediction market movers this week
- Texas Governor: Greg Abbott’s re-election odds keep falling in Texas as the Democratic ticket maintains momentum. With Democrat James Talarico continuing to lead in the Senate race and Gina Hinojosa staying competitive with Abbott, the market is starting to price in whether Talarico's wave could bring Abbott down. Abbott’s odds have dropped from 80% to 73% in a week, as CBS/YouGov polling shows Talarico still ahead and Abbott’s lead at only 4%.
- Nevada Governor: Democrat Aaron Ford's odds have risen in Nevada Governor races after the first day of early voting. After weak Democratic mail returns, the first day of in-person early voting showed a Democratic surge, reassuring traders that Democrats were still enthused, just changing how they vote. Ford’s chances of victory in this lightly polled race have risen 4%, from 51% to 55%.
- Ohio Senate: Former Senator and Democrat Sherrod Brown has risen in the polls this week from 59% to 65%, as the polls have continued to stay good for the party. A BGSU/YouGov poll showed Brown’s lead expanding from 4% to 6% and, arguably more importantly, no poll showed him behind. Democrats have led in Ohio for months, but expectations were that the polls would close. And with a week of them not, traders are starting to buy Brown’s return to the Senate after losing the state’s other Senate seat in 2024.
Midterm Election Predictions FAQ
Democrats are expected to have a strong night in the 2026 midterms. They are overwhelming favorites to win the House, and their odds of winning the Senate in 2026 just hit 63%.
Democrats are 63% likely to win the Senate, per 2026 midterm election predictions. They are currently favored to keep all of their own seats and flip North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Texas, and Alaska. Republicans are still favored in Kansas and Iowa, as well as the rest of their safer states. Democrats would win 52 Senate seats if every seat went to the party currently favored by Kalshi election predictions.
Senate and House control markets have high volume, as do key Senate races like Texas, Ohio, Maine, and Alaska. Governor races like Georgia and Texas are also attracting action.
Polls are snapshots in time, while Kalshi election predictions react to more information and predict election-night outcomes. Polls have had a spotty track record in recent years, with notable misses, but they still meaningfully inform predictions.
Odds change whenever news breaks, polls are released, or traders invest. Odds are constantly in flux, and unlike many quantitative models that update only once a day, they react much faster as events unfold and sentiment shifts. They’re also more responsive than polls, which can take days to reflect breaking news.
