Prediction markets strongly expect Democrats to take congressional power after the midterm elections. A poll conducted this month isn’t quite as sure.
The poll, conducted by NPR, PBS, and Marist, suggests the supposed “Blue Wave” could be limited on Election Day.
- Kalshi expects Democratic majorities in the House and Senate, and in gubernatorial seats
- Democratic support is the strongest in the House for prediction traders
- The poll shows more confidence for Republicans in their ability to win the majority of congressional seats
Kalshi’s prediction markets leave little doubt, particularly in the House of Representatives. Market data as of Thursday suggests the Democrats have a 91% chance of controlling the House, with a projected 233 seats, versus the GOP’s 192.
The Senate offers more room for debate. Kalshi traders believe Democrats have a 67% chance of winning the majority, with a projected 52 seats, while Republicans are slated to get only 46.
At the state level, Kalshi’s prediction market expects few close races. One “Lean Democratic” race is in Georgia, and two “Lean Republican” showdowns are in Kansas and Texas, with no “Toss-Ups.” Traders believe Democrats lead in 28 states, and Republicans have the advantage in 22.
This data reflects national sentiment in the weeks leading up to the midterms. However, the new poll shows that confidence may be slipping.
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What did the poll find?
The poll of 1,289 registered voters was conducted Oct. 19-20 with a margin of error of 3.7% for registered voters and 3.8% for likely voters. According to the results, 52% of likely voters plan to write down Democrats' names. That’s opposed to 44% who expect to vote Republican.
Still, more people believe Republicans can win on Election Day. 46% (+2%) of likely voters expect a Republican majority, while 51% (-1%) of Democrats feel the same.
That comes from 18% of likely Democrat voters saying they believe Republicans will win more vacant seats in Congress. Only 15% of likely Republican voters believe Democrats will win more congressional seats.
Voters’ motivations
One of the main catalysts for Democratic voters is an “anyone but Trump” mentality. 44% of poll respondents said they would vote against the sitting President, more than double the 21% who said they would vote for him.
In 2024, 55% of Trump voters said they would vote for their preferred candidate.
After Trump sparked debates over legitimacy after he lost the 2020 election to 46th President Joe Biden, a not-insignificant percentage of voters are concerned about election integrity. One-fourth of all respondents said fraud concerned them before the election.
Notably, those votes still included solid majorities from Democrats, Republicans, and Independents — but Republicans (68%) were significantly less likely to trust the voting systems than Democrats (88%). That gap ballooned to nearly 30% among self-proclaimed “MAGA” supporters.
If voters are aligned on one issue, it is the rising cost of living. 39% of Democrats cited this as their primary issue — second only to preserving democracy — while 31% of Republicans agreed that it was the biggest hurdle to clear, the highest of any category.
Preserving Democracy (23%) and immigration (20%) were close for Republicans’ second most-important issue. Democrats ranked no category above 6% except preserving democracy and the cost of living.
