One of the most shocking races to be on the competitive board this year is Texas Governor. In a reliably Republican state, with a three-term incumbent Governor in Greg Abbott, Republicans would have been confident in their standing in Texas Governor odds. And yet, Democrat Gina Hinojosa is creeping up in the 2026 midterm odds as Election Day nears.
Abbott's historical advantage vs. present vulnerabilities
Greg Abbott is the clear favorite in Texas Governor odds, but not as big a favorite as he normally is. Abbott dispatched his three Democratic challengers by double digits, even as Beto O’Rourke came within 3% of winning a Senate seat in 2018. When Beto challenged him in 2022, Abbott swatted the challenge aside by 11%, albeit in a more favorable year than 2018 was or 2026 is shaping up to be.
The case for Abbott is even stronger when you realize this is a redder state than it was in 2018 or 2022. Trump won by 9% in 2016, 5.5% in 2020, and nearly 14% in 2024, making this Abbott’s easiest re-election to date -- at least on paper. And yet, he’s in a real race for the first time in his life.
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Navigating a favorable national climate for Democrats
This is the first time Abbott’s faced a competitive challenge in a blue year. In 2018, Democrats focused so heavily on taking out Ted Cruz in the Senate race that they put little effort into the Governor’s race. Therefore, despite the blue year and Cruz’s 2.7% margin of victory over Beto, Abbott overperformed Donald Trump’s lackluster margin in the state. Traditional Republicans who couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Trump in 2016, and those who did and then voted against Beto in backlash to Trump, still felt comfortable voting for Abbott.
2022 was a red year, but even then, Abbott’s margin fell. Relative to the nation, Abbott only outperformed the national state of play by 10%, albeit against the force of nature that is Beto. Despite America getting 9% redder between 2018 and 2022, Abbott went backward 2%, suggesting his popularity might be as strong as it used to be. Now it’s a year when Democrats look primed to win big nationally.
Oh, and then there’s Abbott's biggest problem: Ken Paxton.
The Ken Paxton effect: How the Senate race threatens Abbott
By the polls and the odds, Ken Paxton is an underdog in the Texas Senate race. Since the last time the Texas Senate was looked at, the odds have only gotten better for James Talarico and the cause of blue Texas. Abbott will outrun Paxton, but he’s not guaranteed the massive overperformances he was in the past. Emerson College had him winning by 3% on the same ballot that saw Talarico up 1. A Siena poll had Hinojosa up 4 as Talarico led Paxton by 6%, and while it’s unlikely that Abbott is really down 4, the shrinking gap between Talarico and Hinojosa is a concern for Republicans.
The problem for Republicans is simple. Paxton used to be a bad nominee who wouldn’t cause problems for the rest of the GOP ticket. In 2018, he won his race for Attorney General by only 3%, underrunning Abbott by 10% and becoming the only Republican candidate for state-level office to fall below double digits. Back then, people uncomfortable with his scandals and his fervently conservative views could vote for Abbott while skipping Paxton’s name.
Now, Paxton is the marquee race in a state that is the center of the political landscape. Trump held the GOP’s midterm convention in Texas to help shore up Paxton, and the party has committed over $60M in new ad spending in recent weeks. They’re having to go all in on trying to save Paxton, but the damage he’s done to Abbott is immense. Texas Republicans' decision to nominate Paxton over John Cornyn, the sitting Senator who outran Trump in 2020 by 4%, has endangered Abbott.
Republicans would say that Paxton will recover, and that the spending increases and Texas’ latent Republican DNA will be enough to get Paxton over the line. If that’s true, Abbott will be fine, and he’ll cruise to an uncomfortable but fundamentally healthy re-election margin. However, it’s fair to say nobody expected Talarico to be knocking on the door of a 4% polling lead on average.
If that holds through election day, the discussion won’t be whether Talarico wins, but whether he wins by enough that Abbott won’t be able to outrun the shipwreck that could be the Paxton campaign. And in a world where the vaunted Paxton recovery is as theoretical as the Cowboys finding playoff success in the 21st century, the door is open for Democrats to pull off the Senate-Governor double. If there’s ever going to be a year, it’s this one.
