Is the truth out there? Maybe. Do aliens exist? Possibly. Will the U.S. government admit it before Grand Theft Auto 6 is released?
That’s the multimillion-dollar question currently trading on prediction sites like Kalshi.
While we wait for the mothership to decloak over the White House, traders are putting their money where their tin foil hats used to be, betting on whether we’re truly alone in the universe—or just being ghosted on a cosmic scale.
Key Takeaways
- President Trump's push for transparency: will POTUS open up the government files and confirm alien life? The market jumped over 10% in 4 hours overnight after announcements.
- Skepticism pays the bills: The market is heavily favoring a continued government stonewall, with ‘No’ trading as the overwhelming favorite.
- The 2027 deadline is tight: Traders see the specific time constraint as the biggest hurdle for disclosure, regardless of what's actually in the skies.
- Whistleblowers drive the volatility: Spikes in the ‘Yes’ column correlate directly with congressional hearings and viral testimony, not necessarily hard evidence.
- More likely than a Kamala Harris Presidency: the current chance according to Kalshi is over five times higher than that of Kamala Harris winning the 2028 US election.
The question of ‘Do Aliens Exist?’ has moved from the fringe to the floor of Congress, yet the betting public remains cynical. Currently, 72.9% of active traders are betting the government keeps its lips sealed, suggesting that while belief in little green men may be high, faith in transparency is at an all-time low.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
‘Do Aliens Exist?’ Prediction Markets
‘Do Aliens Exist?’ Prediction Markets Analysis
👽 Yes, Aliens Exist | 28¢ | 27.9% Chance
The aliens exist before 2027 contract is the ultimate lotto ticket. The argument here relies entirely on momentum. With the establishment of the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) and high-profile hearings, the ‘disclosure’ train has left the station.
Believers are banking on a dam-breaking scenario where leaked evidence forces the President's hand. It’s a bet on chaos over order.
In a binary market, the underdog is the sleeper by default. At nearly 5-to-1 odds, the US confirm aliens outcome represents the biggest potential upset in prediction market history. Its success hinges on a single, dramatic event. A undeniable landing, a mass sighting, or a rogue press conference; that makes denial impossible.
The market would be completely shaken if it paid off, turning pennies into dollars overnight.
🤐 No Confirmation | 73¢ | 72.2% Chance
This is the heavy favorite for a reason.
Asking the U.S. government to declassify the biggest secret in human history is like asking a cat to apologize for scratching you: theoretically possible, but don't hold your breath.
The ‘No’ side is buoyed by bureaucratic inertia and the strict definition of ‘confirmation’. Ambiguous military reports or grainy videos won't trigger a payout here; the market demands a definitive ‘Yes’, and traders know that Uncle Sam loves a ‘maybe’.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS' and get a $10 trading bonus after you trade $10 on any other event contracts — including this game!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
‘Do Aliens Exist?’ Prediction Markets Trading Strategy: Make Money With Mulder And Scully
Trading the UFO disclosure prediction markets requires a distinct lack of emotional attachment to E.T.
When to trade
Volatility is event-driven. The ‘Yes’ shares tend to spike during the news cycle lead-up to Congressional UAP hearings or when major publications (like the NYT or The Debrief) drop a bombshell report.
The smart money sells the hype: buy ‘Yes’ on the rumor of a hearing, and sell it the moment the hearing starts and the officials start dodging questions.
Signals to watch
Ignore the grainy TikToks. Watch the legislative calendar. Specifically, look for amendments in the annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) related to UAP declassification.
If ‘Schumer-Rounds’ style language gets stripped out, hammer the ‘No’. If mandatory declassification passes, the ‘Yes’ becomes a value play.
How to interpret these probabilities
A 27.9% chance implies that while the US confirming aliens is unlikely, it's not statistically impossible. It's roughly the same odds as rolling a six on a die.
The market is telling you that while aliens might be real, the paperwork to prove it is likely stuck in a basement at the Pentagon.
‘Do Aliens Exist?’ Prediction Markets FAQs
Prediction markets typically require an explicit admission that the technology's origin is extraterrestrial, meaning a statement effectively saying ‘we are tracking unidentified objects’’’’’’’ is insufficient for a payout. The government must definitively classify the technology as non-human, rather than simply acknowledging they possess data on aerial phenomena they cannot currently explain. Consequently, they do not need to physically display the craft, but they must verbally confirm its alien nature without ambiguity.
Most prediction markets strictly adhere to a specific time zone, typically Eastern Time (ET) for US-based platforms, to determine the exact cutoff for resolution. If a confirmation is issued at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, it would resolve to ‘Yes’, but a statement made in a western time zone that falls after midnight ET would likely fail. You must check the specific contract rules, as this ‘timezone arbitrage’ determines the outcome.
Prediction market contracts rigorously define ‘government officials’ as individuals currently holding office, so a former President does not qualify as a representative of the Cabinet or a federal agency. His comments are interpreted as personal opinion or civilian speculation rather than an official government disclosure, which explains why the market price remains relatively stagnant. Unless a sitting official explicitly corroborates his claims, the market will not resolve to "Yes" based on his podcast appearance.
While buying ‘No’ at 84 cents implies a high statistical probability of success, labeling it "free money" dangerously ignores the risk of unexpected whistleblower leaks or sudden policy shifts. You are essentially betting against the unpredictability of a bureaucracy that is currently under immense pressure to increase transparency regarding Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena. Furthermore, locking up your capital for ten months carries a significant opportunity cost that must be weighed against the modest 16% return.
A discovery by a private entity like SpaceX would likely cause the market price to surge, but it would not trigger a ‘Yes’ resolution in isolation. The contract explicitly requires confirmation from the US Government, meaning SpaceX would need to share their findings with federal agencies who must then publicly validate the extraterrestrial origin. Without that official government stamp of approval, the market technically remains a ‘No’ regardless of the scientific proof.
The market's resolution source is strictly the United States government, meaning a declaration by the UN Secretary General does not automatically trigger a contract payout. While such a major announcement would create immense pressure for the US to follow suit, it does not fulfill the contract's specific requirement for a US federal agency confirmation. Therefore, if the US government remains silent or denies the UN's claim, the ‘No’ trade would theoretically still win.
