Midterm elections in the United States are right around the corner, and Kalshi midterm odds are available now.
This page tracks Kalshi odds for Senate and House control and key races, and highlights the highest-volume races by trading volume.
Live Kalshi midterm odds
Whether you’re looking for Kalshi Senate control odds or for the state of play in your home district, Kalshi election prediction markets show what the market thinks will happen. These are live, real-time market probabilities, not just a polling average or someone’s predictions. Kalshi election odds show what people think will happen, and update live as events break.
LIVE KALSHI MIDTERMS ODDS
| Market Name | DEMOCRATS | REPUBLICANS |
|---|---|---|
| Which party will win U.S. Senate? | 50% | 50% |
| Which party will win U.S. House? | 86% | 14% |
| Texas Senate Winner? | 53% | 47% |
| Michigan Senate Winner? | 57% | 43% |
| Maine Senate Winner? | 64% | 36% |
| Georgia Senate Winner? | 91% | 9% |
| North Carolina Senate Winner? | 91% | 9% |
Data verified on August 12, 2026
Senate and House Control on Kalshi
Republicans have been the favorites in Senate control odds until recently, when Democrats ticked up to even the market. Republicans and Democrats each have a 50% chance of controlling the Senate as of Wednesday, Aug 12. It’s worth remembering a 50-50 Senate is broken by the VP, meaning Democrats need 51 seats for control of the Senate, while Republicans only need 50.
On House control odds, Democrats remain ahead substantially. Traders give Democrats an 86% chance of winning the House, while only giving Republicans a 14% chance of holding the chamber.
Democrats gained slightly in Kalshi Senate odds in recent days due to events in Maine. With embattled Democratic nominee Graham Platner announcing he’s suspending his campaign and allowing a replacement, traders now believe Democrats are once again favored in the Pine Tree State.
How Kalshi Midterm Prediction Markets Work
Kalshi election prediction markets are a real-time reflection of what people think will happen in elections. Whether it’s a straightforward contest between two candidates, a Yes/No market about whether a specific person will win, or predicting how many seats a party will win, there’s a Kalshi election odds market for you.
Kalshi election odds are legal to bet in the US, and show what the market thinks the odds of an outcome are. These are live market probabilities, not merely one person’s prediction or forecast. A 60% implied probability does not mean that will happen, just that the market thinks it has a 60% chance of happening. Election odds have seen plenty of upsets in recent years, favoring both sides of politics.
Kalshi election odds are also not polls. Polls are snapshots of where voters are at any given time, whereas Kalshi election odds are market odds of where the election will be on Nov. 3.
Kalshi vs. Traditional Election Forecasts
Traditional election forecasts can only update when there are new polls. The problem with them is that once news breaks, their forecasts become obsolete, at least until new, post-news polling becomes available. With Kalshi election prediction markets, you see in real time what the market thinks the impact of an event is.
Traditional election forecasts are constrained to data that may take days or even weeks to update, whereas Kalshi midterm odds are constantly changing as events do. Polls can change Kalshi election odds too, but the live nature of Kalshi election prediction markets means forecasts are constantly evolving, not just when polls are released.
Kalshi midterm odds: Frequently asked questions
What are the current Kalshi midterm odds?
Republicans are very narrow favorites to win the Senate in Kalshi Senate odds. On the House side, Democrats are still sizable favorites to flip the chamber per Kalshi House odds, and make Hakeem Jeffries the next Speaker of the House.
Can I bet on the 2026 midterms on Kalshi?
Kalshi allows you to trade on 2026 midterm election odds. From Senate control to House races across the country, plus Governor’s races, primaries, and more, Kalshi election prediction markets allow you to have money invested in it all.
How do Kalshi midterm markets settle?
Kalshi markets settle based on certified election results state by state. As soon as a race is officially certified, Kalshi settles the winner to ensure honesty and integrity in Kalshi election odds.
Which midterm races are most active on Kalshi?
Senate Control odds remain the most active market on Kalshi, with crucial Senate races like Maine, Texas, and Michigan also being very active. Additionally, House control odds are extremely active on Kalshi.
