Prediction market traders can’t seem to get enough of who will control the U.S. Congress in the 2026 midterm election odds.
- House and Senate control markets have attracted hundreds of millions of dollars at prediction markets.
- State Senate races in Texas, Michigan, and Maine are being heavily traded.
- The Los Angeles Mayor race is one of Kalshi’s biggest Election Day markets.
The nationwide race is generating high trading volume at Kalshi and Polymarket on Election Day.
Control of the House and Congress Balance of Power have been two of the most popular markets, generating more than $350 million combined in notional volume, according to Aldrin Research of 11 operators.
Kalshi’s House control odds market surpassed $240 million on its site just hours after the polls opened on the East Coast. The Democrats are an overwhelming 92% to win that market, with Republicans getting a 8% chance based on Kalshi’s trading.
The Senate control odds market has seen more than $37 million in volume.
Taking control
On Tuesday, Balance of Power was Polymarket’s second most-traded market at $63 million, behind swing states Republicans will win at $64 million. Who will win the House has generated $44 million at Polymarket, while the Senate control market has seen $19 million traded.
At DraftKings Predictions, the Democrats are 76% to win the Senate and 95% to take control of the House. Kalshi and Polymarket have shown similar percentages.
The Senate race leads trading at DraftKings Predictions, with nearly half (49%) of the volume for all election hub races, a spokesperson told Covers. That's followed by national markets such as the 2028 presidential races, and Governor races.
Top races by volume at DKeX the last 7 days:Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
- Party to Win Texas Senate Race
- Florida Governor Election Winner
- Michigan Senate Election Winner
- Texas Governor Election Winner
- Party to Win Iowa Senate Race
State races
One of the key races tied to the overall Congressional markets is the Texas Senate odds race between Dem. James Talarico and Rep. Ken Paxton, which is the most-traded market at DraftKings Predictions.
That outcome has attracted more than $89 million at Kalshi and $14 million at Polymarket, with Talarico getting around a 75% chance of winning at both platforms.
Michigan midterm odds and Senate winner, with Dem. Abdul El-Sayed, getting an 80% chance, has seen $9 million traded at Polymarket. DraftKings Predictions listed this as the second most-traded market.
Maine midterm odds are one of Kalshi’s largest, generating $16.5 million in volume. Dem. Troy Jackson leads Rep. Susan Collins by 72%, according to Kalshi’s trading. Senate races in Kansas and Iowa have also seen more than $10 million traded each.
Gubernatorial attractions
Florida’s gubernatorial election is a big one at DraftKings and Kalshi, with the Florida midterm odds market generating $14.8 million for Kalshi. Rep. Byron Donalds has a 69% lead over Dem. David Jolly in the Sunshine State.
The Texas governor race between Rep. Greg Abbott (65% at Kalshi) and Dem. Gina Hinojosa has produced $19.2 million in volume for the operator, while the Texas midterm odds are the third most-traded market at DraftKings.
Tuesday is also expected to be a big day for combo trading, with trading exchanges offering users the ability to purchase contracts that put various races together. For example, a Texas governor-Senate market at Kalshi has taken more than $1.6 million in volume.
City of Angels
Prediction market users aren’t just getting in on state races this Midterm. The Los Angeles mayor odds market has been a massive contract generator, reaching more than $160 million in notional volume, according to Aldrin Research.
Kalshi has seen more than $109 million traded in the race between Karen Bass and Nithya Raman. Bass is controlling the outcome with 59%, according to the operator.
