Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass enters Election Day with a narrow edge over city council member Nithya Raman on Kalshi as voters decide whether to give Bass a second term.
Los Angeles Mayor odds traders give Bass a 58% chance of winning the Nov. 3 runoff, compared to 43% for Raman. An October poll put both candidates at 40% among likely voters.
- Kalshi prices Bass at 58 cents and Raman at 43 cents on Election Day.
- Bass finished first in the June primary with just over 34% of the vote, followed by Raman at 29%.
- A late-October poll found that nearly one in five likely voters remained undecided.
Bass, who defeated Rick Caruso in 2022 to become the first woman elected mayor of Los Angeles, is seeking a second and final four-year term. Raman, an urban planner who unseated an incumbent in 2020, represents the 4th District, which includes Hollywood and other parts of western L.A.
The pair advanced to the nonpartisan runoff after neither won a majority in June. Bass received 34.3% of the vote to Raman’s 29%. None of the other primary candidates received more than 5% of the vote.
Kalshi’s Los Angeles mayoral winner midterm odds market showed about $109 million in prediction market trading volume as of Election Day. Bass held the lead in the final week after the candidates traded places three times in October.
A Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey of likely voters conducted in late October found Bass and Raman each drew 40% support, with 19% undecided. That would leave room for either candidate to pull ahead, even as traders give Bass the better chance of winning.
Bass vs. Raman prediction
Bass has made her first-term record the center of her reelection bid. She points to declines in crime and street homelessness and to her administration’s efforts to speed up housing development. Raman is pushing for more affordable housing, stronger protections for immigrants, and a shift away from traditional policing.
The tied poll keeps this a close call. With nearly one in five likely voters undecided in late October, Raman has an opportunity to close the gap from June.
Still, the pick is Bass. She finished about five percentage points ahead of Raman in the June primary and regained the market lead in the final week. The late flurry of trading in her favor, which came after the poll was released Oct. 28, underscores momentum in the crucial final days of what has been a neck-and-neck race.
Bass vs. Raman prediction market pick - Karen Bass ($0.58).
