Prediction markets have a true toss-up in a race between Josh Turek (D) and Ashley Hinson (R) for an Iowa Senate seat.
Hinson (51%) and Turek (49%) both rapidly surged and fell at different points over the last week, making this the most closely contested race at Kalshi as of Monday evening.
Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is not seeking re-election to one of Iowa’s Senate seats, leaving Turek and Hinson to battle.
Turek, 47, served in the Iowa House of Reps. since 2023. He has gained significant popularity, in part because he has reportedly raised more money for his campaign than Hinson.
- Hinson is currently serving in the U.S. House of Reps.
- Turek is a two-time Paralympic gold medalist and Iowa Rep.
- Market probabilities consistently flip-flopped throughout the final week before midterm elections
Hinson was also a former member of the U.S. House of Reps. and served in the U.S. House of Reps. since 2021. She has a background in broadcast journalism.
As of Monday evening, Kalshi users had traded $10.8 million on predictions of the race winner. Hinson had a 59% chance one week ago, dropped to 52%, surged back to 57%, and now finds herself at 51% Tuesday with more than $12 million traded. Turek’s market probabilities followed the exact opposite trend.
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Turek (D) vs. Hinson (R) prediction
Turek and Hinson have both called each other out during the build-up to the midterm elections. Turek highlighted his opponent’s increase in personal wealth during her political career, while Hinson said that the Democrat’s life story was “amazing,” but his policies weren’t.
Turek is after a public health insurance option, restored Medicaid funding, and lower drug costs. He also wants a higher minimum wage, a ban on food price gouging, and a cap on private investment in homes and farmland.
Hinson is primarily concerned with affordability. She wants to permanently cut a tax on tips, overtime, and Social Security, along with more childcare options and lower fuel costs. She also wants prescription-drug price transparency and more access to rural and maternal care.
Polls put the race at a near-even 46.4-46.3%, with Turek up by 0.1%.
Prediction market traders' last-minute cold feet have created plenty of opportunities for buyers and sellers. Although Turek pulled ahead, the latest market shows Hinson still has a strong chance to earn her spot back in the U.S. Congress.
My pick for Turek vs. Hinson: Ashley Hinson ($0.51) | TRADE THIS MARKET ON KALSHI
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More midterm election battleground states odds
Senate control races and Governors’ Mansion races across America will come down to key battleground states. With statewide races heating up everywhere, many key states have plenty of interesting races.
- Alaska Midterm Odds
- Florida Midterm Odds
- Georgia Midterm Odds
- Texas Midterm Odds
- Maine Midterm Odds
- Michigan Midterm Odds
