Talarico Ahead of Paxton in Texas Senate Election at Prediction Markets on Midterms Day

The eyes of Texas (and perhaps the United States more broadly) are upon a potentially major shakeup in who will represent the Lone Star State in the Senate.

That’s at least according to the latest prices on prediction market apps such as Kalshi, where Democrat James Talarico is priced at more than 70% likely to win the Texas Senate race as of Tuesday morning.

A Talarico win would mark the first time Texas elected a Democrat to serve as its U.S. Senator since 1988. That, however, is what the Texas midterm odds are suggesting, with Republican Ken Paxton trailing in both the polls and prediction market probabilities. 

The momentum for Talarico is part of a broader, bluer trend in the 2026 midterm election odds. Those prediction market prices suggest that Democrats could be in for a pretty nice Tuesday.

Among other things, Senate control odds suggest that the Democrats have a good chance to again take control of that chamber of Congress. At Kalshi, for example, Democrats were sitting at a 76% likelihood of winning Senate control as of Tuesday morning; a Talarico win in Texas would bode well for that coming to pass.

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Beyond the midterms

Tuesday’s midterms will have consequences beyond the next two years. Whoever controls Congress could either help or hinder the agenda of President Donald Trump and set the stage for a hotly contested presidential race in 2028.

U.S. presidential election odds for 2028 suggest that traders are still divided on who could claim the White House two years from now. Vice President J.D. Vance held a narrow lead over Democrat Gavin Newsom on Tuesday, with the margin 19% to 15% at Kalshi.

The Texas Senate race could also be indicative of how open the midterms and future presidential election could be. Paxton's probability of winning had been as high as 80% at one point, but now that's completely flipped.

Why that happened exactly is hard to know for certain, but Paxton has faced an uphill climb. Among other things, Paxton primaried sitting Sen. John Cornyn, who had been holding and getting reelected to his seat since 2002. 

The thing is, at this point, Dems can absorb a modest-sized polling error and win the Senate. Not a large one. But they have leads of >=3.0 points in states totaling 5 flips, plus in all their own seats.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 2, 2026

Paxton has also had to stare down several scandals that may be weighing on the minds of voters. In 2015, he was indicted for securities fraud. And, in 2023, the Texas attorney general was impeached by the state House of Representatives.

Talarico, however, is no shoo-in in a state that has historically leaned Republican in recent years. 

Another Texas Democrat, Beto O’Rourke, was hopeful of winning a Senate seat in 2018, but the challenge was beaten back by Republican incumbent Ted Cruz. The fact that polls are suggesting the Democrats are nearer to winning in Texas now might motivate more Republican voters to get to the polls.

Furthermore, it's notable that polls still put Paxton within arm’s length of Talarico. Political analyst Nate Silver's latest polling averages put Talarico ahead by 3.3 points. RealClearPolitics' average had Talarico ahead by 2.6 points as of Tuesday morning.

Conclusion

It’s looking promising for the Democrats and Talarico in the Texas Senate race. There are just no guarantees that’s how Tuesday ends for them. 

Even so, the Texas Senate election will be one of the most watched races of the day. That is especially true for prediction market traders. At DraftKings Predictions, for instance, the Texas Senate election was the platform's most traded race as of Monday afternoon.

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