This past week, the New York Times/Siena has dropped polls across nearly a dozen Senate seats, in some cases being the only good, independent, high-quality poll of the race. The NYT/Siena polls have shifted 2026 Senate odds in some races, giving Democrats hope in their quest to win the Senate.
Texas Senate odds
This is the most high-profile race of the midterms, and it’s the one where people trust the polls least. But it’s also the Democratic race where the Times has the biggest lead, at 7%. James Talarico's odds spiked on the poll as the race’s clear Democratic edge became harder to deny.
Republicans still have a chance in Texas - the poll is reliant on big swings amongst voters who voted for Donald Trump, in addition to the idea that Democrats will turn out more - but 7% is a massive problem for Republicans, who have tried to say that they’re recovering in Texas. After $220M in spending by Elon Musk and millions more from Trump-aligned Super PACs, the GOP are down and down bad in the Lone Star State.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Michigan Senate odds
Michigan has been the hotbed of news today, with Democratic primary loser Haley Stevens endorsing Mike Rogers after previously endorsing Abdul El-Sayed. This late-breaking endorsement initially moved prediction markets, which then settled, before the New York Times dropped a D+11 poll, and spiked El-Sayed again.
The reality is that El-Sayed has had a good run of polls in recent days, but this is the caper. If the Times are even remotely right, then even if Abdul faces any consequences from Stevens’ backstabbing, it won’t matter, because he has room. Democrats’ Michigan infighting was fodder for the press, but voters don’t seem to care.
Alaska Senate odds
Alaska’s polling has been sparse, and the alleged scandal's impact on the two Dan Sullivans is mostly theoretical. It’s fair to say that the margin in Alaska has gone from 7 to 2 for Democrats in a month, but the caveats of how hard it is to poll Alaska are worth mentioning. That 7% lead a month ago seemed high for Democrats; a narrower lead makes sense.
How much Mary Peltola had to do with the “scandal” of the minor candidates on the ballot is unclear, as is the impact. That said, it’s not good for Democrats that their polls have declined as people are getting shaky for non-polling reasons. That said, Democrats are still favored for a reason.
Ohio Senate odds
Sherrod Brown got a needed boost with this Times poll. Brown’s lead has been slowly eroding in other polls, as Ohio’s undecided voters have broken for the Republicans, but this poll has him up 5% and not in much danger. He also isn’t doing much worse than Amy Acton in the governor’s race, which is considered relatively uncontroversially Democratic at this point.
Ohio polls have had a spotty history, even in midterms, but there’s little doubt Brown is in a winning position. It’s not a lock, but he’s led in essentially every poll all cycle, and the Times poll showing him moving from +3 to +5 in a month only solidifies that confidence.
Maine Senate odds
This is the biggest swing since the last poll, and the biggest problem for Republicans. Susan Collins led in the last New York Times/Siena poll of the state by 3%. Now she’s down 5%, in a sample only as blue as the previous election, so none of the concerns that the poll is getting too Democratic hold up here. She’s in trouble because Democratic voters are finally treating her like something close to a generic Republican.
Collins’ ability to win races in a blue state has been the stuff of legend, but it’s clearly running out. Democratic voters voted for her because she was a powerhouse for Maine’s interests, but that value has diminished in a world where Donald Trump’s the motivating issue in this election.
Kansas Senate odds
In the toughest of seats where the Times has Democrats seriously ahead, Republicans should be in the clear in this Trump +16 state. The problem is that the Republican Senator has run a generationally bad campaign and put this seat in play. Democrats running a pastor helps, but they’re only here because Roger Marshall left the door wide open. His continued decision to sue his patients for medical debt, and his insistence on defending himself when it was raised, left the door open.
Donald Trump hasn’t helped - the state is incredibly agricultural, and farmland has been the biggest loser under Trump. Between tariffs that have made it harder to sell their products abroad and an oil price spike that’s driven diesel prices up, farmers have been decimated. And clearly the combo of Marshall’s ineptitude and the conditions have made Hamilton a favorite in both the Times’ polling and the markets.
Covers 2026 Midterm Election hub
- 2026 Midterm Election odds
- Senate Control odds 2026
- House Control odds 2026
- Congress Control odds 2026
- Midterm election predictions 2026
Nebraska Senate odds
The market has always been correctly priced on Dan Osborn, for the data that’s out there. Osborn outran Kamala Harris by double digits in 2024 for the other Nebraska Senate seat, and with a bluer year, that overperformance would be enough to win the seat. The polling, as limited and scattered as it’s been, broadly agreed the seat is properly competitive, even though many of us have been waiting for a proper pollster to cover the race.
Now that the Times have, the markets look more like what many Democrats’ vibes have been: Osborn’s success was a function of his hard work, yes, but also of becoming a novelty that wasn’t taken seriously in 2024. Nobody’s making that mistake this year, and he’ll lose, but lose well, accordingly.
South Carolina Senate odds
On the other hand, South Carolina saw one of the biggest Democratic jumps in odds this week, after a Wednesday NYT/Siena poll tied the race at 48-48. Polls in South Carolina have looked better than they have any right to for Democrats in a state that voted for Trump by 18%, but the 2020 experience of thinking it could flip has dampened markets. But now, its status as a real competitive seat is supported by the Times, and not the flotsam of Dem-biased pollsters of 2020. It’s still probably not happening, which is why markets still price Darline Graham as the favorite to keep her brother’s seat, but it’s at least vaguely plausible she loses now.
