Prediction markets are out to prove that their data is more accurate than polls and other forms of campaign intelligence. But with less than a week until the midterm elections, even industry leaders are struggling to call several races.
Between the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate, market leader Kalshi has 13 races deemed as “toss-ups” as of Thursday evening.
- Numerous races show Democrats picking up late steam
- Republicans are still favored to win most “toss-ups”
- There are far more “toss-ups” in the House than there are in the Senate
In preparation for the Nov. 3 ballot day, Kalshi created a dedicated midterm elections hub to house its election contracts, data, markets, and analytics.
According to that hub, 13 races — two in the Senate and 11 in the House — are true “toss-ups.” These are defined as races in which neither candidate has a 60% chance of winning on election day.
U.S. election prediction market trading has already exceeded over $221 million, according to the New York Times. Here’s where the money is going in the closest midterm races.
Covers 2026 Midterm Election hub
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Iowa Senate - Hinson (R) vs. Turek (D)
Ashley Hinson has a 52% chance of winning the Iowa Senate seat and replacing incumbent Joni Ernst (R), who is not seeking re-election, according to data as of this writing. Turek is hot on her heels with a 48% chance based on $7.7 million in trades.
Polling averages shared by Kalshi put Turek as a tiny favorite at 46% to Hinson’s 45.8%.
View all Iowa midterm odds.
Kansas Senate - Hamilton (R) vs. Marshall (D)
A true 50/50, Roger Marshall (R) and Adam Hamilton both have an equal chance of winning the seat Marshall currently holds. There was significant change within the past 24-48 hours, as Marshall had a 61% chance as of Thursday morning.
Polling averages slightly favor Hamilton (46.5%) over Marshall (45.2%). $6.1 million in trades were registered.
Alabama 2nd District - Marques (R) vs. Figures
Shormari Figures (D) hopes to keep his seat in the House as the AL-02 Representative. He’s picking up steam as Election Day approaches, but Kalshi odds still put his chance at 43%. Marques has a leading 57% chance.
Just over $481,000 was traded in the market as of Monday.
Colorado 5th District - Crank (R) vs. Killin (D)
Jeff Crank (R) is running for re-election in Colorado's 5th District. Current market sentiment supports his chances — estimated at 56% at Kalshi — while Killin (D) has only a 44% chance.
That data comes from nearly $300,000 in trades.
Kentucky 6th District - Dembo (D) vs. Alvarado (R)
Dembo (D) roared into the lead in Kentucky early on Friday morning, completely flipping the script after Alvarado (R) had a solid lead. Dembo now has a 58% chance based on $253,310 in trading volume, while Alvarado is at 42% and dropping.
Polls put Dembo at 45.6% to beat Alvarado (41.1%) for the outgoing Andy Barr (R).
Maine 2nd District - LePage (R) vs. Dunlap (D)
Paul LePage (R) has a 56% chance to beat Dunlap (D), who has a 44% chance, at the polls on Tuesday. Those percentages come from $269,413 in trades reported by Kalshi.
Incumbent Jared Golden (D) is not seeking re-election.
Montana 1st District - Forstag (D) vs. Flint (R)
Sam Forstag (54%) saw a huge surge in support last week, moving from a 45% chance to a solid lead over Flint (46%). Kalshi's $809,094 trading volume is noticeably higher than in several other “toss-up” races.
Polls also like Forstag (46.7%) to beat Flint (45.4%) to take the seat of Ryan Zinke (R), who is not running for another term.
North Carolina 3rd District - Murphy (R) vs. Smith Jr. (D)
With $575,261 in trading volume, Kalshi’s prediction markets show Murphy (R) at 59% and Smith Jr. (D) at 41%. However, Smith gained significant steam over the last week, starting at just a 20% probability.
The winner will replace incumbent Gregory Murphy (R).
Pennsylvania 1st District - Harvie (D) vs. Fitzpatrick (R)
Bob Harvie (D) has taken a 55% lead in a back-and-forth race with Brian Fitzpatrick (R), who sits at 45%. There was a 24% swing — 12% in both directions — since Thursday morning, highlighting a common theme of late Democratic in support in many markets.
$402,612 has been traded as voters weigh whether Fitzpatrick, who holds a minuscule 46.9-46.6% lead in polls, can retain his spot in Congress.
South Carolina 1st District - Honeycutt (R) vs. Lacore (D)
Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R) leads this race with a 58% chance, although her chances are dropping with every passing day. Lacore (D) has a 42% likelihood of winning and is picking up steam, according to $257,451 in trades.
Honeycutt leads the poll (45.4-43.6%) to replace incumbent Nancy Mace (R).
Texas 23rd District - Herrera (R) vs. Stout (D)
Brandon Herrera (R) holds 56%, though he is down 6% over the last week. Katy Padilla Stout (D) has a 44% chance of filling the seat vacated by Tony Gonzales.
Herrera also has a slight lead in polls (44.6% to 43.9%). The market has traded more than $700,000.
Virginia 5th District - McGuire (R) vs. Perriello (D)
Incumbent John McGuire (R) has a 59% probability of retaining his seat, although he is losing ground. Perriello (D) has a 41% chance despite being at just 35% on Wednesday morning.
Kalshi reported more than $750,000 in trading volume in this market.
Wisconsin 1st District - Steil (R) vs. Berman (D)
Bryan Steil (R) has a 51% chance of winning his re-election bid over Mitchell Berman (D), who has a 49% chance. Steil also leads in polls, 48.1% to 46.9%.
Kalshi users traded more than $150,000 in the market.
