In August, one of the last truly competitive states in the 2026 midterms held its primary, as voters in Alaska participated in an all-party jungle primary to set the ballot for November’s general election.
With competitive races for both Senate and Governor this year — and Alaska’s unique voting system — 2026 midterm odds have been volatile.
The "Only-In-Alaska" Ranked Choice system
Unlike most states, Alaska doesn’t have partisan primaries. All candidates compete in one primary, and then the top four vote-getters in August’s primary compete in the general election. In an Only-In-Alaska twist, Ranked Choice Voting decides the top four, ensuring the winner has 50%+1 of the vote and allowing multiple battles on the same ballot: the race for a party to win a seat and the battle between individuals.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Senate surge: Peltola gains momentum post-primary
Alaska’s Senate seat is the more straightforward of Alaska's two key races this year. Former Democratic Congresswoman Mary Peltola is running against incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan in a battle between two statewide elected officials. Peltola lost in 2024 by 2%, while Kamala Harris lost the state by 13%, but now she’s the challenger instead of the incumbent. But with a bluer national environment than in 2024, she’s a priority target for Democrats in the Senate control odds.
In the primary, Peltola came out on top and will flirt with 50% of the vote once the remaining ballots come in. In 2024, she won 51% of the primary vote before losing in the general election, so primary performance doesn’t guarantee success in November. However, the 2024 Alaska primary was held at the peak of Kamala Harris’ momentum as the newly enshrined Democratic nominee, lending credence to the idea that Peltola’s 2026 primary result may be more solidly based than her 2024 primary result.
Alaska Senate odds are seeing Peltola’s performance as impressive. On Tuesday, before the results came in, Peltola was a 52% chance of winning this Senate seat for Democrats; at Kalshi midterm odds, that's now 57% based on these results. With late-breaking ballots expected to be even better for Peltola, better primary results could boost that number further, especially as the collected Democratic share in the primary breaks 50%.
Governor's mansion: A high-stakes Ranked Choice puzzle
This market has been in shambles ever since Nate Silver's 2026 midterm forecast dropped last week, and the primary has screwed with it even further.
Alaska voters face two different questions this year: do they want a Republican or a Democrat in the Governor’s Mansion, and, depending on the answer, which one? Two Democrats and two Republicans will make the General election, setting up a fascinating case study in ranked-choice voting.
The combined share of the vote for the two Democrats currently adds up to only 42%. While that number is expected to rise, and a significant chunk of the 4.5% for Independent former Governor Bill Walker will likely vote for Democrats in November, the total Democratic vote share is still substantially behind Republicans. And yet, between the two Democrats, they have a 58% chance of winning, per Alaska Governor odds.
The reasons aren’t entirely clear from the primary itself, but they do show how scattered the Republicans are. Six Republicans are between 10.5% and 5.5% of the vote, meaning whichever two Republican candidates make the final four against the two Democrats will struggle to consolidate their vote.
On a candidate level, Tom Begich’s rise and subsequent fall in odds rested on a slightly odd premise. Nate Silver’s model assumed Begich would be the leading Democrat and that, given the polls, the leading Democrat would be in good shape. The problem is, Begich has come in second in the Democratic column, complicating his path to the Governor’s Mansion.
Covers 2026 Midterm Election hub
- 2026 Midterm Election odds
- Senate Control odds 2026
- House Control odds 2026
- Congress Control odds 2026
- Midterm election predictions 2026
The battle for Alaska's sole House seat
Democrats succeeded in making Independent Bill Hill their main challenger to Republican Nick Begich (Tom's nephew). Nick Begich was elected in 2024 by a narrow margin, defeating Peltola by just over 2%. While Begich’s past margin of victory would suggest he’s in a competitive race, losing the superstar personal vote of Peltola to the Senate race means Begich remains favored in the House control odds to keep Alaska’s only seat despite the bluer environment.
This market’s been one of the lesser bets, but compared to a couple of weeks ago, Hill’s odds are down, as Nick Begich’s primary performance doesn’t suggest he’s particularly vulnerable.
