Tuesday night, one of the last truly competitive states in the 2026 midterms held its primary, as voters in Alaska participated in an all-party jungle primary to set the ballot for November’s general election. With competitive races for both Senate and Governor this year, and Alaska’s unique voting system, 2026 midterm odds have been volatile in the aftermath of Tuesday.
The "Only-In-Alaska" Ranked Choice system
Unlike most states, Alaska doesn’t have partisan primaries. All candidates compete in one primary, and then the top four vote-getters in August’s primary compete in the general election. In an Only-In-Alaska twist, that top four is conducted with Ranked Choice Voting, ensuring that the winner will have 50%+1 of the vote, and meaning that there can be multiple battles on the same ballot - the race for a party to win a seat and the battle between individuals.
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Senate surge: Peltola gains momentum post-primary
Alaska’s Senate seat is the more straightforward of the two key races in Alaska this year. Former Democratic Congresswoman Mary Peltola is running against incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan in a battle between two statewide elected officials. Peltola lost in 2024 by 2% while Kamala Harris lost the state by 13%, but she’s now the challenger instead of the incumbent. But with a bluer national environment than 2024, she’s a priority target for Democrats.
In the primary, Peltola came out on top and will be flirting with 50% of the vote outright once the remaining ballots come in. In 2024, she got 51% of the vote in the primary before losing in the general election, so primary performance isn’t a guarantee of success in November. However, it’s worth noting that the 2024 Alaska primary was held at the peak of Kamala Harris’ momentum as the newly enshrined Democratic nominee, lending credence to the idea that Peltola’s 2026 primary result may be more solidly based than her 2024 primary result.
Alaska Senate odds are seeing Peltola’s performance as impressive. On Tuesday before the results came in, Peltola was a 52% chance of winning this Senate seat for Democrats, which is now 57% at Kalshi midterm odds based on these results. With late-breaking ballots expected to be even better for Peltola, it’s even possible that better results in the primary boost that number further, especially as the collected Democratic share in the primary breaks 50%.
Governor's mansion: A high-stakes Ranked Choice puzzle
This market has been in shambles ever since Nate Silver dropped his model last week, and the primary has screwed with it even further.
There are two different questions facing Alaska voters this year - do they want a Republican or a Democrat in the Governor’s Mansion, and depending on the answer, which one? Two Democrats and two Republicans are going to make the General election, setting up a fascinating case study in ranked-choice voting.
The combined share of the vote for the two Democrats currently adds up to only 42%. While that number is expected to rise, and it’s likely a significant chunk of the 4.5% for Independent former Governor Bill Walker would vote for Democrats in November, the total Democratic vote share is substantially behind Republicans. And yet, between the two Democrats, they have a 58% chance of winning, per Alaska Governor odds.
The reasons aren’t entirely clear from the primary itself, but it does make clear how scattered the Republicans are. Six Republicans are between 10.5% and 5.5% of the vote, meaning whichever two Republican candidates make the final four against the two Democrats will have a hard time consolidating their vote.
On a candidate level, Tom Begich’s rise and subsequent fall in odds was always based on a slightly odd premise. Nate Silver’s model assumed that Begich would be the leading Democrat, and that given the polls, the leading Democrat would be in good shape. The problem is, Begich has come in second in the Democratic column, complicating his path to the Governor’s Mansion.
The battle for Alaska's sole House seat
Democrats succeeded in making Independent Bill Hill their main challenger to Republican Nick Begich (Tom's nephew). Nick Begich was elected in 2024 by a narrow margin, defeating Peltola by just over 2%. While Begich’s past margin of victory would suggest he’s in a competitive race, losing the superstar personal vote of Peltola to the Senate race means that Begich remains favored to keep Alaska’s only House seat despite the bluer environment.
This market’s been one of the lesser bets, but compared to a couple of weeks ago, Hill’s odds are down, as Nick Begich’s primary performance doesn’t suggest he’s particularly vulnerable.
