Nate Silver’s 2026 midterms forecast dropped last week, and it’s had an impact on 2026 midterm odds. With the "King of Election Forecasts" releasing his model, the odds across many races have moved. With his model currently seeing Democrats as favorites in both 2026 Senate odds and House odds, those markets obviously matter.
But Silver’s pre-eminence in this space means he is trusted in many races, and he’s moved the markets in a bunch of places. It’s worth digging into where he - amongst other factors - moved the markets, and why betting markets and his odds differed so much.
For all 2026 midterm odds, make sure to check out the rest of our coverage.
Alaska odds: The ranked choice wildcard
The biggest mover is by far Alaska Governor odds. Silver’s initial model had Democrat Tom Begich - brother of former Democratic Senator Mark, and Uncle of current Republican House member Nick - with a 70%+ chance of winning, while prediction markets had him at 27%. Now he’s at 50%.
Markets were light on his chances because of Alaska’s unique electoral system. Alaska eschews partisan primaries for an all-party primary where the top 4 move on to the general election, held under ranked-choice voting. Silver’s model assumes that Begich will be the top Democrat and consolidate the Democratic vote, while Republicans will be unable to. With not every Alaskan expressing a preference, the strength of the Begich name, and the unpopularity of the incumbent Republican governor, Democrats are in good shape to flip the state.
Tuesday’s primary will show whether Silver’s core premise - that Begich is far and away the leading Democrat in the race - holds or not. If it doesn’t, Alaska Governor odds will change in both prediction markets and his model.
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Kansas odds: Testing the limits of Trump-state politics
One of Silver’s most controversial swings is Kansas, where Democrats have held the Governorship since 2018. That year, Republicans nominated a well-known, controversial figure in Kris Kobach and narrowly lost. As an incumbent, Democrat Laura Kelly was able to hold on in 2022, but she’s now term-limited. And with her unable to be on the ballot this year, most people have frankly assumed this Trump state would go back to the GOP.
Silver’s model, apparently, isn’t so sure.
Democrats had a 23% chance before Silver’s model dropped in Kansas prediction-market odds, which are now 35%. But at their peak, Democrats rose to 38% as Silver’s model moved the markets. Yes, Kansas voted against abortion restrictions in 2022 by 20%, and is one of the most educated states to vote for Republicans, but this is still a state that voted for Trump by 16% less than two years ago.
Florida odds: A signal for Democratic optimism?
Florida is one of Silver’s most notable places of (relative) Democratic optimism, with their chances in the Sunshine State coming in at 22% when his model launched. At the same time, markets had that number at 13%, as most people believed Democrats were seeing the same false optimism as always in Florida.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton was favored in the state before losing by just over 1%. In 2018, Democratic Senator Bill Nelson lost his race by only 10k votes. In 2020, Florida swung right despite a national move towards Democrats, and 2022 and 2024 have been bloodbaths for the GOP.
To be clear, Silver’s relative optimism is just that - relative to market expectations. But given that prediction markets have moved Democratic chances in Florida Senate odds from 13% to 19% this week despite no new polling, it’s clear the market is taking a cue on this one.
Nevada odds: Republican resilience in the Silver State
Polling out of Nevada has been scarce this year because of the lack of a Senate race and no competitive House seats. Given that, prediction markets haven’t known what to do, given the combo of a reasonably popular incumbent Republican Governor and a statewide elected Democrat challenging him. But Silver’s model appears to have reassured Republican backers.
After his model, which showed Republicans ahead, was released, Joe Lombardo took a clear lead in Nevada Governor odds. The combo of an incumbent Governor in a state Trump won in 2024 is potent, as is the fact that Democrats don’t need the state this year. Their three House seats should all stay blue, and the lack of a Senate seat means Democrats are prioritizing other places.
Georgia odds: A southern crown jewel in play
Arguably the most important Governor’s race in the country this year, Georgia is a ticking time bomb for Republicans. The state, won by Joe Biden in 2020 and then electing Democrats to the Senate three times since, is one of the most left-trending states in the nation. Despite Donald Trump narrowly flipping the state back in 2024, only winning it by 2% in a year that Trump won nationally by 1.5%, it is a far cry from Romney winning it by 8% in a year Obama won nationally by 4%.
Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is cruising to re-election, but governors’ races in trending states tend to lag behind. Georgia’s Republican DNA, especially in the northern suburbs and exurbs of Atlanta, powered incumbent Republican Brian Kemp to victory four years ago, even as Democrats won the Senate seat. Now, Kemp’s term is limited, and Democrats are trying to take advantage.
Silver’s model boosted Democrats this week, pushing former Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms from 55% in Georgia Governor odds to 60% now. Whether Democrats can flip the Governorship of their southern Crown Jewel will be one of the most interesting stories of the year.
