NFL Picks

The Patriots' defense ended the regular season ranked 32nd in short-yardage success rate, allowing an 85% conversion rate on third- and fourth-and-short rushing attempts. Even with a healthy backfield, Seattle's reliance on Barner’s 251-pound frame in high-leverage goal-line situations makes this plus-money prop a savvy wager.

Walker has been a massive part of the Seattle offense down the stretch and throughout the playoffs, and I'm expecting nothing different from the Seahawks running back in the Super Bowl.

Diggs led New England with 1,013 receiving during the regular season. However, his production was wildly inconsistent from week-to-week and the Seahawks have the best DVOA in the league against No. 1 WRs. Diggs has logged less than 45 receiving yards in his last four games. That includes playoff games against the Chargers and Broncos were he finsiehd with just 16 and 17 yards respectively. Diggs rank 10th among WRs in receiving grade against man coverage (88.2) per Pro Football Focus. However, that grade drops to 75.4 versus zone coverage and Seattle plays zone at the fourth-highest rate in the league.

The Patriots have leaned on Stevenson this postseason with 68% of the backfield carries while playing 72.5% of the offensive snaps. As a result, he's cleared this total in all three postseason contests, and he’s also ran for at least 50 yards in six of seven games out of the New England bye while piling up 5.9 yards per tote. Seattle sends out an elite defense, but so did the other three teams New England beat this postseason.

Smith-Njigba registered 92 yards or more in 14 of 19 games for the year with a high-end 76.3 catch percentage, 11.7 aDoT and 35.7% target share. Plus, the New England defense played the easiest schedule by DVOA while ranking 31st in the metric against No. 1 wide receivers, and Smith-Njigba is the best wideout they’ve faced all season.

Kupp finished the regular season with 47 receptions for 593 yards, serving as an integral piece for Sam Darnold and this Seahawks offense. The veteran has done his part in the playoffs as well, cashing the Over in catches in both of Seattle’s games. Kupp compiled five grabs in the blowout victory over the San Francisco 49ers in the Divisional Round. He then hauled in four catches in the NFC Championship against his former team, the Los Angeles Rams.

In his first game off IR after missing four games, he played more snaps than Stefon Diggs and, despite finishing with just two catches, accounted for 20% of the team’s receptions and 59% of the passing yards. His pre-injury volume is easy to forget, but he saw 42 targets over his previous six games (seven per game) and led all New England pass catchers with a 22.2% target share, ahead of Diggs (4.5 targets per game) and Hunter Henry (3.5). A negative game script and forecasted perfect weather only add to the appeal.

Both teams rank near the bottom of the league in pace which will lead to fewer offensive plays and tackles across the board. Patriots safety Jaylinn Hawkins has finished with fewer than 4.5 solo and assisted tackles in his last five games. Hawkins primarily lines up at deep safety and I'm expecting a conservative offensive gameplan from Seattle with few deep throws for Sam Darnold.

Both teams rank near the bottom of the league in pace which will lead to fewer offensive plays and tackles across the board. Seahawks linebacker Ernest Jones IV has finished with fewer than 8.5 tackles in four consecutive games and is averaging 6.0 total tackles per game during that span.

Sam Darnold has thrown 11 interceptions in his last 13 games with most of those coming on short and intermediate throws in the middle of the field. Marcus Jones primarily covers receivers in the slot which leads to him shadowing inside routes. Jones has recorded a team-high four interceptions and 15 passes defended during the regular season and playoffs. I wouldn't put a full unit on this longshot bet but it's worth a sprinkle at +600.