NFL Picks

Green Bay’s run game is tough to trust with Josh Jacobs banged up, but Watson dominated the passing usage last week and is my favorite TD play in this game. He led the team in snaps, routes, targets, yards, air yards, and receptions. He didn’t score, but the Packers kept things ultra conservative because of JJ McCarthy’s poor play on the other side and were nursing an easy lead. Jordan Love should run a more aggressive offense indoors as a 2.5-point dog against a high-scoring Detroit team. The Lions’ secondary also has injury concerns with Kerby Joseph, Terrion Arnold, and Brian Branch all questionable. Watson should be the shortest TD price among Packers receivers — not Romeo Doubs, who has just 81 yards over his last three games and sits around +170.

The Packers are getting increased pressure on rival passers and doing so with just a four-man rush. Green Bay sits Top 10 in QB hits and total sacks and takes on a Lions’ offensive line with injuries up and down the pass protection. Detroit currently has four of five o-line starters listed as questionable and limited in practice during this short week. Most of those guys played through ailments in Week 12’s OT win over New York but starting center Graham Glasgow still isn’t practicing yet. Quarterback Jared Goff felt the effects of those o-line injuries. He was blasted by the Giants pass rush, suffering three sacks and seven QB hits last Sunday. Goff’s pass production gets a “turkey tryptophan” hit when facing pressure like the Packers’ four-man rush. He sits 58th among all QBs at PFF when under pressure, completing just 45.5% of his throws. 

Lamb has caught 28 passes for 410 yards across five games since returning from injury to clear this total in three of five. The upside here is he’s failed to haul in 20 targets during the run to leave plenty of yards on the table. Teammate George Pickens has been a machine the past two weeks and caught 18 of 20 looks for 290 yards, so I’m anticipating the Kansas City defense having its hands full with the one-two punch, and Lamb garnering more than enough looks to put up 75 or more receiving yards again in Week 13.

I’m already on Patrick Mahomes Over 20.5 rushing yards, but I like his anytime TD at +350 or better even more. Mahomes has more carries than Lamar Jackson this season and ranks first among all quarterbacks in scramble yards (PFF). He’s scored in four of 11 games and gets a strong matchup for QB rushing TDs in Dallas. The Cowboys have allowed a QB rushing TD in three straight home games (Jalen Hurts, Jacoby Brissett, and Jayden Daniels). They’re giving up the most passing yards at home and 29.4 points per game, third most in the league. Kareem Hunt is coming off a 30-carry workload on a short week after not topping 13 carries all season, so those old legs will not be fresh on the short week. Kansas City also owns the highest pass rate in the NFL and leads in pass rate over expected, which means more red-zone dropbacks and scramble chances.

This is a great spot for Andrews to bounce back against the league's worst defense at defending the tight end position. Cincinnati is allowing a league-high 87.4 receiving yards per game to the position which is a ridiculous 17 more yards than the next closest team. They've allowed two seperate TEs to go for 100+ yards in their last three games. Andrews has underwhemled this season but is still second on the team in targets. He's topped 37.5 yards in seven of his last eight games against the Bengals.

The Cincinnati Bengals have lost their last four games against the Baltimore Ravens and are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head matchups with their AFC North rivals. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry spearheading a loaded offense, Baltimore's defense should also see a boost following the draft selections of safety Malaki Starks and edge rusher Mike Green. Back the Ravens to cover at home, where they went 5-3-1 ATS last season.

The Bears will have a new HC in Ben Johnson, and many people hold him in high regard for his ability to run an offense. He'll have a full complement of weapons to work with, including Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. And on defense, they should be stout in the trenches and on the outside. The Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl victory, could be in for a letdown this year, and while this November clash is three months into the season, things could snowball if the team isn't 100% focused from Week 1. 

Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are predicted by the predictive model to run 65.3 offensive plays in this game: the 10th-highest number on the slate this week.. With an impressive 17.9% Red Zone Target% (96th percentile) this year, Saquon Barkley rates among the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume near the goal line in the NFL.. In regards to air yards, Saquon Barkley ranks in the lofty 78th percentile among RBs this year, accumulating a colossal 1.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).. Saquon Barkley has been in the 92nd percentile among RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a remarkable 19.8 mark this year.. With an excellent rate of 0.20 per game through the air (92nd percentile), Saquon Barkley ranks among the top receiving touchdown-scorers in the league when it comes to running backs this year.

Jacksonville ranks 12th in scoring with the Titans ranking 29th, allowing more than three touchdowns a game.

Jacksonville’s red zone defense has been poor, with opponents scoring touchdowns on nearly 62% of their visits. And while Tennessee hasn’t cashed in at a high rate, the frailties in this Jaguar secondary raise the odds of scoring chances improving.

The Jaguars should thrive off play action against a struggling Titan run defense. Tennessee also throws the ball at the second-highest rate in the league. The strengths of the two offenses match up perfectly with the weaknesses of the opposing defenses, which makes the low total a bit too low for me. 

 

As long as the spread is under a touchdown, I’ll take the Jaguars to cover. They’re now unbeaten ATS on the road, with three wins and a push, after the three-point win over the Cardinals. Jacksonville also will hurt the Titans on the ground, where they rank 27th in yards per carry and 31st in rushing scores allowed. 

Tennessee is also one of the most penalized teams in the NFL. The Titans rank 31st in sack rate allowed, and their poor rushing attack will make them one-dimensional against Jacksonville’s Top 5 rushing defense. And while Trevor Lawrence is turnover prone, this Titan defense doesn’t force many. 

Cam Ward will find some success, but he’s going to be under pressure far too often in obvious passing situations. The Titans might yet again threaten a backdoor cover, but I expect Jacksonville to win by a touchdown or more. 

 

Recency bias has bumped this Week 13 spread from a look-ahead line of Panthers +9.5 to an official opener of +10.5. Given we’re getting a half-point hook on the key number with the home side, I’ll bite on Carolina. While the Panthers offense looked blinded by the primetime lights in San Francisco, the defense held up for as long as it could despite playing almost 38 minutes and missing stud CB Jaycee Horn in the second half (concussion). Carolina scored three takeaways (two from Horn) and checked the 49ers to 2-of-6 success in the red zone. After playing back-to-back road games and three of their last four away from home, Bank America Stadium is a sight for sore eyes for the Panthers. They’ve been much more competitive in Carolina (-1.0 MoV) and get a real home-field edge in Week 13, with L.A. playing a 1 p.m. ET start (10 a.m. PT) and possibly doing so in the rain. 

The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see just 127.3 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest among all games this week.

The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see just 127.3 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest among all games this week.

The Cardinals are 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS in their last nine games while ranking 28th in defensive success rate. Tampa Bay was a 6.5-point home favorite on the lookahead line before that swung to -2.5 after QB Baker Mayfield was injured in Sunday night's ugly loss to the Rams. He was diagnosed with a low grade sprain in his non-throwing shoulder which means there's a decent chance the tough QB will play on Sunday. Chris Godwin returned from a six-week absence in Week 12, and standout RB Bucky Irving is expected to return this week after missing the last two months. That puts the betting value on the Bucs, who have since moved to -3. I'd bet that number but you can still get the -2.5 at -115 if you shop around. 

The 49ers offense faces not only a disruptive Cleveland defense in Week 13 but also some nasty weather. The extended forecast is calling for a mix of rain and snow with wind gusts up to 30 mph and temperatures that “feel like” 27 degrees. Niners QB Brock Purdy is mired in turnover troubles while the Browns will start rookie QB Shedeur Sanders. I’m grabbing the Under early in the week before books take a chunk out of this number due to the forecast.

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Browns are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.0 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The Cleveland Browns have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 55.0 plays per game.. Opposing QBs have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL versus the 49ers defense this year (72.9% Adjusted Completion%).

The Colts have the highest-scoring offense in the NFL, but the Texans have one of the best defenses in the league, capable of containing Jonathan Taylor. Houston's offense also gets a major boost this week with franchise QB CJ Stroud expected to return after missing the last three weeks. They won three in a row despite having Davis Mills under center. With Stroud back, they'll be better suited to take advantage of a Colts defense that ranks 24th in success rate. Indy is atop the AFC South, but the final six weeks will be crucial with four games against Jacksonville and Houston. This should be a dog-fight between two division rivals who have a lot at stake. 

The Texans thrive in playing low scoring game and are going to do everything possible to keep this game low scoring so they can stay competitive. 

J.J. McCarthy finished 12-for-19 passing for a measly 87 yards along with two interceptions in the road loss at Green Bay in Week 12. The Vikings has failed to crack 20 points in three straight games and now head to Lumen Field to take on another elite defense. The Seahawks got a bit of a scare in Tennessee on Sunday but still limited the Titans to 17 points on offense, checking them to 4.4 yards per play and sacking rookie QB Cam Ward four times. Sam Darnold takes on his former club and needs to be wary of the Vikings’ blitz-heavy schemes. That means quicker hits and lots of handoffs, with little time in the pocket for deeper strikes to develop. This total opened just shy of the key number of 44 points and is already sinking like a stone in the opening hours of action. Grab the Under 43.5 now, as the next stop is 42.5 with little reason to like the Over.

This week's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Seahawks, who are a heavy favorite by 10.5 points.. Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks as the least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 50.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The 5th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Seattle Seahawks this year (a lowly 48.5 per game on average).. The leading projections forecast Sam Darnold to throw 30.5 passes in this week's game, on average: the 2nd-fewest among all QBs.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.. The projections expect the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects Jaylen Warren to be a much smaller part of his team's run game near the end zone in this game (60.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (71.0% in games he has played).. Jaylen Warren's 96.2% Adjusted Catch% this season signifies a substantial improvement in his receiving proficiency over last season's 89.6% mark.. With an exceptional ratio of 0.10 per game through the air (76th percentile), Jaylen Warren stands as one of the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the league among running backs this year.

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.. The projections expect the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Buffalo Bills cornerbacks grade out as the 6th-worst CB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

The Raiders are the NFL's lowest scoring team, averaging just 15 points per game, and won't put up enough points to hit the Over on the total.

The Chargers are 2-0-1 ATS against their divisional rivals.

Denver sends an elite defense out against Washington and backup quarterback Marcus Mariota. The Broncos are fourth in defensive DVOA and have allowed the third-fewest points per game, so I expect Mariota to struggle Sunday. Of course, Denver also has the highest pressure percentage in the league and paces the NFL in sacks.

The Giants haven’t won on the road all season, and the Pats have rolled off nine straight wins with quarterback Drake Maye pacing the NFL in adjusted EPA per play and completion percentage during the run. Plus, New York entered Week 12 ranked 28th in defensive DVOA and has allowed the third-most points per game.

The Patriots are a massive 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 53.0% of their chances: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.