NFL Picks

As of this writing TE Hunter Henry is priced at +160 to score a touchdown on Thursday but with Boutte, Stevenson and Hooper trending toward being out – especially Hooper – his ATTD ask will only get greater. Hunter has four touchdowns on the season and has drawn nine red zone targets – seventh among tight ends. He’s logged the sixth most snaps for this position and a target share north of 17% on the season. New England takes on a Jets defense that has been tortured by TE touchdowns in 2025, allowing seven scores to the position – most recently giving up a touchdown to Cleveland TE David Njoku in Week 10. Other books have Hunter to score a TD as low as +135, but you can get him at +160 at bet365.

New York’s secondary is “sans Sauce” after the trade deadline and could be without starting CB Azareye'h Thomas (concussion). Glenn’s man-heavy schemes are ripe for Stefon Diggs to do damage against, as he ranks among the top WRs in one-on-one coverage. New York has given up 25 passing plays of 20 or more yards this season but hasn’t faced a QB with arm like Maye in a while, taking on passive passing attacks like Cleveland, Cincinnati, Carolina, and Denver the past four games. Earlier in the year, the Jets were roasted by downfield throws from Dallas, Tampa Bay, and Buffalo. Diggs is averaging 11.1 yards per reception and has posted longs of 21 yards or more in four of his last seven games. 

The Commanders have been a disaster, losing four straight by 20+ points and giving up 179 total points during their five-game skid. Miami could be in a slight letdown spot after their emotional win over Buffalo, but the Dolphins should still be able to move the ball with ease here. Malik Washington has scored in two of his last three games and continues to get designed touches, including four carries over his last two outings. He was also the only WR/TE to see a red-zone target last week, which keeps him firmly in play for another touchdown. With Ollie Gordon limited early in the week due to an ankle issue, Washington could see more red-zone work. I’m taking this at +180.

The Dolphins own an identical 3-7 record as Washington but ride high into Santiago Bernabéu off the franchise’s biggest win in years. Miami stunned the rival Bills 30-13 at home last Sunday, setting up a looming letdown spot on international turf. The Fins are known to flop, putting up a 2-7 SU/ATS record off a win over the past two seasons, and Fins coach Mike McDaniel is generating some bad juju with his drive-by trolling of Buffalo fans last Sunday. "Schadenfreude" is a German term, but karma knows no borders. McDaniel might not have a flight home from Spain if he doesn’t win, given a Week 12 bye is the ideal time to drop the ax on the underperforming coach. This is a classic buy low, sell high spot with two comparable teams playing in a strange setting. And with Washington head coach Dan Quinn taking over play calling for the defense, we could see a “Dead Cat” bounce from the Commanders’ sluggish stop unit.

At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-heavy team in football (65.0% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Chargers.. The highest number of plays in football have been called by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 61.6 per game on average).. The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (39.8 per game) this year.. The Jaguars defense has been gouged for the 3rd-most receiving touchdowns in the NFL to running backs: 0.33 per game this year.

The Chargers are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.. Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all passing offense stats), the offensive line of the Chargers grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year.. This year, the fierce Jacksonville Jaguars defense has allowed a puny 66.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 6th-lowest rate in football.. The Jaguars linebackers project as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

The Bills’ win over the Chiefs feels like a long time ago, but they’re in a good spot to put up points at home against a Bucs defense allowing 27.4 points per game to teams with winning records over five games. Dalton Kincaid is considered week-to-week after exiting Week 10 and didn’t practice Wednesday, so I’m looking elsewhere at tight end — and it’s not Dawson Knox. Jackson Hawes found the end zone last week at +750 and continues to be a red-zone threat, though his score came from 26 yards out. If Kincaid is out, I’d play this down to +450.

The Buccaneers are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 59.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Baker Mayfield has attempted 31.7 passes per game this year, grading out in the 76th percentile when it comes to QBs.. In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Buccaneers profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.. The Bills linebackers grade out as the 2nd-worst LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.

The Chicago quarterback has 140 rushing yards over his last three games and scored on the ground last week. When he faced the Vikings in Week 1, he ran six times for 58 yards and a touchdown. He’s logged 17 red-zone carries this season, with at least one in every game. Only Jalen Hurts has more red-zone carries among quarterbacks this year, making this price a steal for that kind of volume. The Vikings have also allowed at least 24 points in four straight games. This is a great spot to back him again.

Jones is a threat to run it in or catch a touchdown pass, which he did against Chicago in Week 1. In fact, he loves playing against the Bears. He’s scored a TD in both meetings last season – his first year in Minny - and if we go back to his time in Green Bay he has 14 total TDs in 16 career meetings with Chicago. He scored his second touchdown of the year last week in the loss to Baltimore and got the lions share of carries in Week 10, including that four-yard goal line TD. 

Josh Jacobs trails only Jonathan Taylor in total touchdowns, and the Green Bay Packers running back continues to be a massive red-zone threat on the ground. Jacobs should gash a Giants front seven that struggles against the run, surrendering 151.1 rushing yards per game. He’s found the end zone twice in three separate games already this season, and I like Jacobs to get the rock early and often as Green Bay looks to find traction in the Meadowlands.

The Packers have allowed just 6.4 first-half ppg this year, tops in the NFL. The Giants are 17th in 1H points, and their offense just got a whole lot weaker with Jameis Winston stepping in for the injured Jaxson Dart.

Houston needed a miracle fourth quarter to avoid a home loss to Jacksonville last Sunday and is playing without QB1 C.J. Stroud, who could sit again due to a concussion. The Texans have enjoyed three straight home games but now leave NRG for Nashville and run the risk of a nasty “letdown/look-ahead” sandwich this Sunday. After taking on the Titans, Houston has a short turnaround to ready itself for a mid-week matchup with Buffalo on Thursday Night Football in Week 12. And with that game being the team’s sixth game in 31 days, we could see the Texans take their foot off the gas in the second half of this AFC South showdown. The Titans, who were shutout 26-0 at Houston in Week 4, do pose a threat to a suspect Texans offensive line that could be down two starters. Tennessee’s pass rush has done a good job getting to rival quarterbacks, sitting sixth in QB hit rate and 13th in total sacks (22).

The Texans are fresh off a comeback win against the Jags where they had Davis Mills under center. Franchise QB C.J. Stroud will likely return this week along with RT Tytus Howard who both missed last week with concussions. They have the highest-rated defense in the league in terms of ppg allowed (16.7), EPA/play, and DVOA. They'll shut down a Tennessee offense that is dead-last in scoring (14.4 ppg) and EPA. The Titans are 1-8 with an average scoring margin of -14.1 ppg. They lost 26-0 when these teams clashed in September and they've gone just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games at home. Grab this number before it moves past that key number of 7.

I needed a Bijan Robinson touchdown last week and got burned by Tyler Allgeier, so it’s time to flip the script and back the bigger back at a solid number. Per Adam Levitan, Allgeier has 13 carries inside the 10 compared to Robinson’s five. When Atlanta gets near the goal line, it’s Allgeier’s show. He’s scored in five of nine games this season, and even after his two-touchdown performance in Berlin, +185 isn’t his shortest price of the year. With Michael Penix struggling in the red zone — his completion percentage there is worse than Justin Fields’ — expect Atlanta to keep it on the ground. Allgeier is the guy to cash in close.

The pendulum has swung way too far with this miniscule 160.5 passing yards total for Young. Sure, he’s been limited to just 364 passing yards across his past three starts, but he’ll also be a road underdog inside of Mercedes-Benz Stadium against a reeling Atlanta pass defense in Week 11. The Falcons have allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks the past three weeks while ranking 20th in pass defense DVOA and ranking 19th in EPA per dropback. 

The Pittsburgh offense looked lost in Week 10, with Aaron Rodgers passing for just 161 yards and two interceptions against the Bolts. After a steady start through the first six weeks, this Steelers offense has tumbled down the advanced metrics the past four outings. This passing attack is far from explosive. Pittsburgh has posted only 21 completions of 20-plus yards with Rodgers averaging a league-low 3.7 air yards per completion for qualified QBs. If the Steelers are going to stop the bleeding, it will need the defense to step up at home. Pittsburgh’s performance on Sunday night wasn’t horrible, checking the Chargers to 4.6 yards per play, 18 first downs and sacking Justin Herbert four times. The extended forecast for Acrisure Stadium sees rains on Sunday with wind gusts as high as 21 mph. That could keep scoring down and make a mess of the questionable grass surface in the Steel City as well.

The Cincinnati Bengals will be forced to use backup QB Joe Flacco in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. A throwing game script is implied by the Bengals being a -6-point underdog in this week's game.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 68.2% of their downs: the greatest rate among all teams this week.. At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (64.0% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Cincinnati Bengals.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 132.7 total plays run: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week.

I wanted to back Trey McBride, but I can’t justify the short price at +115. Instead, I’ll take the tight end who led his position in Week 10 with four red-zone targets and scored at +150 in a tougher matchup than he’ll face in Week 11. The Cardinals were down double digits for nearly the entire game last week, and the 49ers’ passing attack could get a boost with Brock Purdy returning. With Brandon Aiyuk unlikely to practice and Ricky Pearsall still sidelined since Week 4, San Francisco will need George Kittle to step up in a must-win divisional matchup. As a field-goal favorite on the road, getting the second-shortest TD prop at +180 is a good price that I'd play to +145/+150.

With Marvin Harrison Jr. sidelined and Zay Jones out for the year with a torn Achilles, Trey McBride is set to be the focal point of the Cardinals’ attack against San Francisco. McBride is averaging nearly 10 targets per game heading into this NFC West showdown, and the star tight end has found the end zone in five of nine contests.

This is a big number for a tight end who saw three red-zone targets last week, just one behind George Kittle’s league-leading four at the position. It might look like a long shot, but Matthew Stafford has been on fire with four passing touchdowns and no interceptions over his last three games. The Rams also kept throwing late last week, even with a comfortable lead. Parkinson has only one touchdown this season (last week at +950), but he’s had at least one red-zone target in four straight games and led the Rams’ tight ends in snap share last week at 57%. Stafford leans on his tight ends near the goal line — they’ve accounted for seven of his 25 touchdown passes this season.

The Rams have shifted into cruise control and covered the number in each of their four consecutive wins. Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford has also paced the league in adjusted EPA per play and success rate while throwing four 7.3 yards per attempt and a 67.7 completion percentage during the winning streak. He’s thrown 14 touchdowns without an interception, too. Obviously, Seattle QB Sam Darnold has also been a statistical darling, but I’m anticipating the Los Angeles defense to do just enough to keep him off balance Sunday. So, with this spread below the key number of 3, I’m happy to take the home team – especially with Stafford playing at an elite level.

This is the best defense the Chiefs have faced all season and a much stiffer test than Kansas City’s recent foes that have helped spark its turnaround. Denver sits Top 5 in many of the “All Holy” advanced metrics like EPA allowed per play, success rate, and DVOA. Most importantly, this Broncos defense brings the heat. Denver leads the NFL in sacks and QB hits, while generating the fourth highest pressure rate. The Bills were able to crack a suspect KC offensive line in Week 9, sacking Patrick Mahomes three times and pressuring him on almost 53% of his dropback. The left Mahomes to go 3-for-16 passing for 61 yards and an INT when under duress.

The Chiefs are fresh off a bye but Denver will also be well-rested after playing on TNF last week. It hasn't always been pretty for the Broncos but they've been winning, going 8-2 this season while riding a seven-game win streak. Their only two losses came on last-second field goals to the Colts and Chargers. Both of those games came on the road and they have a significant home-field advantage playing at elevation. With their elite defense, I would take them at more than a FG in Denver against anybody in the league — including the Chiefs who are 1-3 SU and ATS on the road.

I might be taking a few too many shots in Week 11, but DraftKings is hanging a great number on Charlie Kolar, who’s scored in two of his last three games. He’s been priced at +850, +950, and +1700 during that stretch, and with the move back to Lamar Jackson plus a tough Browns run defense, the setup makes sense. Kolar played 44% of the snaps last week as Baltimore used 11 personnel on just 18% of plays against Minnesota. Despite being the team’s No. 3 tight end, he’s seeing roughly the same target volume as DeAndre Hopkins — who’s +330 to score. I’ll take a half-unit shot on Kolar this week, banking on some play-action near the goal line to get No. 88 another touchdown.

The Ravens have their sights on top spot in the AFC North, and Baltimore has won three straight while averaging 28.3 points per game and allowing just 13.6 per. Cleveland doesn’t check out as a formidable foe, either. The Brownies are 2-7, and quarterback Dillon Gabriel has thrown for a pedestrian 5.0 yards per attempt and 58.2 completion percentage while ranking last in EPA+COPE composite since taking over in Week 5. Ravens roll in Week 11.

Philadelphia’s vaunted pass rush looks like its back after laying dormant for most of the season, scoring 10 total sacks and increased QB pressures during its current three-game winning streak. Detroit’s offensive line will be tested on SNF after allowing Jared Goff to feel the sixth highest pressure rate against among qualified QBs. Goff runs a quick-hitting pass attack to begin with that keeps completions short. Now with Campbell taking over play calling, you can expect more handoffs from the Lions. Campbell snatched the playbook last week and Detroit ran on 48.5% of its snaps. That will keep the clock ticking with shorter gains, which is a solid recipe for Unders.

With a sizeable 20.0% Red Zone Target Share (98th percentile) this year, Saquon Barkley stands as one of the RB receiving threats with the biggest workloads near the end zone in football.. Saquon Barkley places in the 92nd percentile for running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with a massive 19.7 figure this year.. Saquon Barkley's 90.6% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a meaningful growth in his pass-catching talent over last season's 85.2% mark.. With a remarkable rate of 0.22 per game through the air (93rd percentile), Saquon Barkley has been among the top receiving touchdown-scorers in the league among running backs this year.. The Detroit Lions linebackers rank as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.4% of their downs: the 7th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The 9th-most plays in the league have been run by the Cowboys this year (a massive 59.1 per game on average).. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. Dak Prescott has attempted 37.1 passes per game this year, checking in at the 95th percentile when it comes to QBs.. Dak Prescott checks in as one of the best quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a fantastic 255.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 95th percentile.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.4% of their downs: the 7th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The 9th-most plays in the league have been run by the Cowboys this year (a massive 59.1 per game on average).. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. This week, Jake Ferguson is projected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 98th percentile among TEs with 7.6 targets.. After totaling 26.0 air yards per game last season, Jake Ferguson has undergone big improvement this season, currently boasting 35.0 per game.

Although the Dallas Cowboys' defense will be more stable under new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, it's hard to overlook a unit that was gashed on the ground and allowed a bottom-five mark in yards per play last season. Patrick Mahomes will torch them on the fast track at Jerry World, boasting a deep arsenal that includes a now-healthy Rashee Rice. With George Pickens joining CeeDee Lamb to bolster the Cowboys’ receiving corps, Dak Prescott should also be able to air it out — even if much of the damage comes in classic garbage-time mop-up duty at AT&T Stadium. The Kansas City Chiefs' defense lost key veterans in the secondary, including corner Charvarius Ward and safety Justin Reid. While their younger replacements may eventually settle into Steve Spagnuolo's system, it could take some time for them to get fully up to speed.

The Cincinnati Bengals have lost their last four games against the Baltimore Ravens and are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head matchups with their AFC North rivals. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry spearheading a loaded offense, Baltimore's defense should also see a boost following the draft selections of safety Malaki Starks and edge rusher Mike Green. Back the Ravens to cover at home, where they went 5-3-1 ATS last season.

The Bears will have a new HC in Ben Johnson, and many people hold him in high regard for his ability to run an offense. He'll have a full complement of weapons to work with, including Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. And on defense, they should be stout in the trenches and on the outside. The Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl victory, could be in for a letdown this year, and while this November clash is three months into the season, things could snowball if the team isn't 100% focused from Week 1. 

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.