NFL Picks

The Bears have won seven of their eight games by one-possession results and have sent out one of the worst statistical defenses in the NFL. A road date with the Eagles on a short week sets up to expose a fraudulent Chicago defense ranking 25th in defensive DVOA while allowing the sixth-most points per game and third-most yards per play. Of course, Philly has also been money at Lincoln Financial Field winning 15 of their past 16 and covering the number in nine of the past 12.

Odunze reeled in three catches for 53 yards last weekend, and he also had an 86-yard game earlier this month against the New York Giants. He's cashed the Over in two of his last three. Odunze is also averaging 64 yards per game on the road this season across six games compared to 53 yards per contest at home.

It's been a rough season for Cam Ward but the rookie QB is trending in the right direction despite a poor supporting cast. Ward is coming off a 256-yard performance against Seattle's stingy defense. He has thrown for more than 220 yards in five of his last seven games. The two contests where he went below that number came against the Texans and Chargers who are second and third in the NFL in defensive dropback success rate. He'll have a much easier matchup at home against the Jags who rank 25th in defensive dropback success rate and passing yards allowed per game (240). 

Chimere Dike operated as the Titans’ No. 1 receiver again last week and now has three touchdowns over his last three games, including two on special teams. He’s been most of Tennessee’s offense in November, and even if Elic Ayomar returns and Calvin Ridley sits, Dike should remain heavily involved against Jacksonville. He also saw two red-zone targets last week and converted both for a touchdown. On the season, he leads the receiver group with nine red-zone looks and six catches. He’s the likely WR1 in a game where Tennessee should be playing from behind.

Kirk Cousins picked up his first win of the season last week, but he’ll be without Drake London again and is overpriced in the interception market, even against the Jets. He threw two touchdowns and a pick last week while targeting David Sills, Darnell Mooney, Dylan Drummond, and KhaDarel Hodge. That’s a rough group of pass catchers, and it raises his interception risk again this week. Weather could also be an issue with possible rain and double-digit winds, which only helps the INT case. His two-interception prop at +600 is also worth a look. Last year, Cousins threw 16 picks in 14 games — one every 28 attempts.

John Metchie cashed for me last week, and I’m going back to his TD at a price that didn’t adjust enough after hitting +475 for a score in Week 12. Metchie stepped into a passing upgrade with Tyrod Taylor and operated as the WR1, playing 88% of the snaps, running 90% of the routes, and leading all Jets wide receivers with six catches for 65 yards. He also saw a red-zone target and turned it into a 13-yard touchdown. This is a WR1 priced like a TE2, and he’s facing a Falcons defense that is giving up 25 points per game over its last six contests.

The L.A. backup logged seven carries last week while Kyren Williams had 12 for 46 yards, but seven of Williams’ attempts came in the fourth quarter. Corum remains heavily involved in this offense, and with Bryce Young crashing back to earth, the Rams could control the clock on Sunday. Since Week 6, Corum has 58 carries to Williams’ 88, giving him roughly 40% of the workload. This TD price doesn’t reflect that split when Williams is sitting around -140. The red-zone work has also been close. Over the last three games, Corum has four carries inside the five to Williams’ two, and overall red-zone carries sit at seven to six in Williams’ favor. If Corum is getting 40% of the carries and better than half of the red-zone work, he should be priced closer to +200 to +240.

Recency bias has bumped this Week 13 spread from a look-ahead line of Panthers +9.5 to an official opener of +10.5. Given we’re getting a half-point hook on the key number with the home side, I’ll bite on Carolina. While the Panthers offense looked blinded by the primetime lights in San Francisco, the defense held up for as long as it could despite playing almost 38 minutes and missing stud CB Jaycee Horn in the second half (concussion). Carolina scored three takeaways (two from Horn) and checked the 49ers to 2-of-6 success in the red zone. After playing back-to-back road games and three of their last four away from home, Bank America Stadium is a sight for sore eyes for the Panthers. They’ve been much more competitive in Carolina (-1.0 MoV) and get a real home-field edge in Week 13, with L.A. playing a 1 p.m. ET start (10 a.m. PT) and possibly doing so in the rain. 

I’m taking on a bit of risk with Devin Neal, who’s been limited in practice, but with Alvin Kamara missing Wednesday’s session and Neal playing 86% of the snaps after Kamara exited last week, Neal could function as an RB1 at an RB2 price. If Kamara sits, this TD number could close around +150 to +160. If Kamara plays, it probably drifts to +400 or higher. Taysom Hill is always a threat to steal a score, but his price is too short to justify. Miami isn’t an intimidating matchup this late in the season in Miami, making Neal worth the early grab.

De'Von Achane has been a key part of his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 19.6% this year, which ranks him in the 97th percentile among running backs.. De'Von Achane has accrued a whopping 3.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile when it comes to RBs. (This may not seem like a lot, but most RBs average negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. De'Von Achane's 35.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 22.4.. With an outstanding rate of 0.33 per game through the air (98th percentile), De'Von Achane has been among the top receiving touchdown-scorers in football among RBs this year.. This year, the anemic New Orleans Saints pass defense has been torched for a monstrous 90.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the worst rate in the league.

There are plenty of moving parts in this matchup with Marvin Harrison potentially returning, Baker Mayfield’s status uncertain, and injuries piling up in the Arizona backfield. Emari Demercado missed Thursday’s practice with an ankle issue, and Trey Benson doesn’t appear close to returning. That leaves Bam Knight (+125) and Michael Carter (+210). The offense has moved the ball well under Jacoby Brissett, and both backs played roughly 50% of the snaps last week. They each saw two carries inside the 5-yard line, which pushes me toward the longer price on Michael Carter in what’s otherwise a coin-flip TD spot.

The Cardinals are 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS in their last nine games while ranking 28th in defensive success rate. Tampa Bay was a 6.5-point home favorite on the lookahead line before that swung to -2.5 after QB Baker Mayfield was injured in Sunday night's ugly loss to the Rams. He was diagnosed with a low grade sprain in his non-throwing shoulder which means there's a decent chance the tough QB will play on Sunday. Chris Godwin returned from a six-week absence in Week 12, and standout RB Bucky Irving is expected to return this week after missing the last two months. That puts the betting value on the Bucs, who have since moved to -3. I'd bet that number but you can still get the -2.5 at -115 if you shop around. 

Shadeur Sanders isn’t the worst quarterback in football, and Harold Fannin looked like his go-to target last week against the Raiders. The rookie tight end led the team with six targets and caught four for 40 yards. Outside of Quinshon Judkins, he’s the only Cleveland player I trust in Week 13. The Browns ran exclusively in the red zone last week, but they’re likely facing a more negative script on Sunday. Fannin has been as short as +300 for a TD this season, but with this matchup and quarterback play, I’d only take it down to +350.

The 49ers offense faces not only a disruptive Cleveland defense in Week 13 but also some nasty weather. The extended forecast is calling for a mix of rain and snow with wind gusts up to 30 mph and temperatures that “feel like” 27 degrees. Niners QB Brock Purdy is mired in turnover troubles while the Browns will start rookie QB Shedeur Sanders. I’m grabbing the Under early in the week before books take a chunk out of this number due to the forecast.

Taylor leads the NFL with 1,159 rushing yards but there are a few reasons to fade him on Sunday. He's been held to less than 60 rushing yards in two of his last three games with the Chiefs and Steelers shutting him down. With the exception of a Week 2 clash against Denver, most of Taylor's big games have come against bad defenses. The Texans have a strong D that allows just 73.5 rushing yards per game to running backs — the fifth-lowest number in the NFL. Most of Taylor's yardage has come on duo run plays (7.7 yards per rush) and outside zone runs (5.9 ypa). Houston allows just 3.4 yards per carry on duo runs while allowing 3.7 yards per outside zone run.

I’ve been backing Jayden Higgins for three straight weeks and he keeps delivering. He’s clearly the No. 2 option behind Nico Collins and has stayed productive even with Davis Mills, posting 13 catches, 135 yards, and two touchdowns over his last three games. With CJ Stroud likely returning in Week 13, Higgins should keep his red-zone role in a run game that hasn’t been reliable. He saw two inside-the-10 targets last week against Buffalo and converted both into catches and a score. I’d play this to +250.

I don’t care if JJ McCarthy misses this game with a concussion — he’s been historically bad. Max Brosmer just needs to get the ball in Justin Jefferson’s direction, and it’s hard to imagine him being any worse than McCarthy. Jefferson was +200 last week against Green Bay and was as short as even money two games ago. The offense is bad, but it’s been bad all year, and he’ll still see near double-digit targets with plenty of trailing game script. Even with a quarterback change, this number looks about 70 cents too long.

Things look bleak for the Vikings passing game, with undrafted rookie Max Brosmer likely getting the sacrificial start in Seattle. The Seahawks pass pressure won’t give him much time in the pocket and Kevin O’Connell will lean on Jones as a quick and easy receiving option to help get Brosmer going early as well as avoid pressure. Jones has been targeted more in recent games, with 16 targets for nine catches the past three games. Seahawks have allowed the fifth most rec yds to RBs this season and Jones’ projections sit as high as 22 yards in Week 13.

Jaylen Warren is still the starter, but Kenneth Gainwell has been cutting into his workload. He’s played roughly half the snaps for two straight weeks and actually out-rushed Warren 92–68 last week on eight fewer carries. There shouldn’t be a 100-point gap between their TD prices in this matchup. Buffalo’s run defense is shaky, and I keep thinking back to the Tampa game where Sean Tucker gashed them with ease. With Pittsburgh’s quarterback banged up, both backs can put up numbers, but the value sits with Gainwell. Over the last three games, he has twice as many inside-the-10 carries as Warren.

Allen has used his legs to take a chunk out of blitz-happy opponents more than a few times this season. He’s played eight games against teams in the Top 10 in blitz rate, topping 30 yards rushing in six of those outings and averaging more than 36 yards rushing per contest.

Tyler Lockett has averaged four catches over his last three games and led Vegas with four grabs for 62 yards last week, despite his quarterback taking 10 sacks against a tough Cleveland defense. Things get easier this week as the Raiders play indoors for the third straight time, this one against the Chargers. He’s now four games into his Raiders stint and saw a massive jump in usage last week, going from 28 snaps in Week 11 to 60. A big part of that is his new role in 2-WR sets, something he wasn’t included in previously. Books have been slow to react to his expanded role and the pass-heavy game scripts Vegas keeps finding itself in. There’s some ladder potential here, but his yardage looks like the best angle to attack for the aggressive Alt-Over bets.

The Chargers come out of the bye into a perfect indoor matchup against a Raiders team that just lost to Shadeur Sanders. Oronde Gadsden’s price drifted after quiet performances in Weeks 11 and 12, but getting his TD at +210 — compared to an average of +170 over his last four — is strong value in this spot. Even during his low-output weeks, the rookie tight end stayed active near the goal line with three red-zone targets. Since Week 8, he has double the red-zone looks of any other Chargers receiver. He’s rested, the matchup is soft, and the Raiders just let Harold Fannin command 30% of Cleveland’s targets, 36% of its receptions, and 20% of its receiving yards. A fair price here should be closer to +175.

JK Dobbins is still out, and RJ Harvey did nothing in Week 11 despite a chance to take over the backfield. Instead, Sean Payton rotated as usual, with Jaleel McLaughlin handling six of the 17 carries and, more importantly, the red-zone work. Two of McLaughlin’s six attempts came inside the 10, and he was the back who found the end zone, not Harvey. With Washington allowing the fifth-most points per game, this matchup is far more favorable for Denver’s RB2 than last week’s spot against Kansas City.

The Broncos will be able to run all over the home team Sunday night. Washington sits in the bottom third of most run stop metrics, including 24th in success rate allowed per handoff. Denver boasts one of the best offensive lines in the business, rated Top 10 in run block win rate and adjusted line yards at FTN. Running back R.J. Harvey is now the primary ball carrier ever since J.K. Dobbins went down. Before the Broncos’ bye last weekend, Harvey logged 38 snaps and carried the ball 11 times – second most this season – for 30 yards in the win over Kansas City in Week 11. The bulk of player projections for Harvey call for 50-plus rushing yards in Week 13 and most of those models are at 58-plus with a ceiling of 62 yards versus Washington.

Only the Steelers allow more receiving yards to opposing wide receivers than the Giants, who have also conceded 12 WR TDs which ranks as tied for the eighth most in football. It also helps that it's Drake Maye and a handful of high-priced WRs on Monday night. It was Mack Hollins who had the most WR targets (six) in Week 12 vs. the Bengals and his 78% route share paced all New England offensive players. He is also tied for the WR lead in RZ targets since Week 9, as Stefon Diggs' usage is oddly trending down. Do I feel confident with a Mack Hollins TD to wrap up Week 13? Not really, but the usage and price are the most important things here. The matchup doesn't get any easier either. I'd play this to +260. 

The Pats drafted Henderson early in the second round after a fantastic career at Ohio State. Henderson broke out with a 75-yard performance against the Browns in Week 8 and had a career-high 147 rushing yards versus the Bucs in Week 10. There was some concern that his role would decline following the return of Rhamondre Stevenson last week. However, Stevenson finished with six carries for just five yards while Henderson logged 18 carries for 66 yards. This week Henderson and the Pats face a Giants squad that has been getting gashed on the ground. The Giants are dead-last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (157.2), yards allowed per carry (5.9), and DVOA against the run. 

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.