NFL Picks

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Carolina Panthers, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.7 per game) this year.

The 49ers edged the Seahawks in the season opener, but a lot has changed since. The 49ers lost their two best defenders to season-ending injuries, and Sam Darnold has developed chemistry with his new teammates. The 49ers have an explosive offense, but have struggled on defense. They are 24th in the league in defensive dropback success rate while ranking 31st in defensive rush success rate. Meanwhile, Seattle is fifth in defensive dropback success rate and third in success rate against the run. The Seahawks also have a strong offense that ranks second in the league with 29.4 ppg. Back the more balanced team to take this game and the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

The Niners have won six straight games, prompted by the play of quarterback Brock Purdy. He’s back to being one of the most efficient arms in the NFL, ranking Top 2 in many advanced passer metrics since returning to the fray in Week 11.

Purdy is playing at an extremely high level the last three games, hovering around 300 passing yards in each outing, completing 72% of attempts, and tallying 11 passing touchdowns to two interceptions. He’s also rushed for 83 yards and two TDs in those showings.

Granted, those stats do come against some less-than-stingy defenses, but I feel much more confident in Purdy’s passing than I do with Sam Darnold right now. The Seahawks QB has shown flashes of why he’s far from elite in recent weeks, especially when it comes to ill-advised throws (four INTs the last four games). 

With this spread growing from Titans +10.5 to +13, the opportunity for a backdoor cover grows wider. 

Tennessee has been one of the best bets in football down the stretch, going 5-3 ATS in the past eight outings. The Titans have been particularly feisty over the last four contests, going 2-2 SU and ATS with those two losses coming by one score.

What’s more, interim head coach Mike McCoy is trying to boost his resume ahead of the 2026 hiring session and would love nothing more than to stick it to his former employer in Week 18.

“If we go in there and beat them, and all of a sudden somebody else – Houston - ends up winning, they win the division,” McCoy told the media on Monday morning. “Things like that. It's an opportunity to go out there and do something like that against a division opponent."

Jacksonville still has an outside shot at the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and a Week 18 win also clinches top spot in the AFC South. The Jaguars have won seven straight, which includes a 25-3 road victory over the Titans. Additionally, Jacksonville has an average margin of victory of 17 points while allowing the lowest EPA per play during the seven-game heater. I also value Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence ranking fourth in EPA+CPOE composite while throwing for an impressive 8.2 yards per attempt over the stretch.

The Texans have secured a playoff spot and can even still win the AFC South if the Jaguars shit the bed versus the Titans. While that scenario seems a little farfetched, Houston can still earn the No. 5 seed in the AFC with a win in Week 18.

The Texans are at home to the Colts, who could be starting Riley Leonard over Philip Rivers at quarterback in the finale. Either way, this Texans defense is a tall task for any QB. 

Houston has given up more than 21 points only once on its eight-game run and has taken down some of the NFL best quarterbacks along the way. C. J. Stroud and the offense do their best work inside NRG Stadium, where Houston averages 6.2 points more than on the road.  

This spread sits short of the key number of -10 at some shops while other books are already dealing the Texans as high as -10.5 in Week 18. Get that -9.5 now.

A passing game script is suggested by the Colts being a -3.5-point underdog this week.. The leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts as the 10th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Colts ranks as the best in the NFL this year.

This spread sits a little higher than it should in my opinion, mainly because Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott told reporters he wanted to suit up in Week 18 – despite the Cowboys having nothing to gain.

Prescott’s plans could vary from what the front office wants, especially considering the gruesome history of this MetLife Stadium turf. Dallas could already be without RB Javonte Williams (shoulder) and TE Jake Ferguson (calf), who left last Thursday’s game with injuries. That’s not only two top weapons but big parts of the Cowboys’ pass protection.

Prescott took a pounding in the Xmas Day win over Washington, absorbing six sacks and 11 QB hits. He now faces a Giants pass rush that scored four sacks in Week 17 and injured Raiders QB Geno Smith (ankle) in the process. New York has 13 total sacks in its last four games.

If Dak is active, I don’t think it will be for more than a half of football. 

The Under is 4-3 in Bengals' games with Burrow at QB and 4-2 when the Browns are road underdogs.

The Bengals are 5-2 ATS when Joe Burrow is under center.

The Saints have won four in a row while the 7-9 Falcons are on a short week after playing on Monday night. The Falcons are 23rd in the league in defensive success rate, while the offense has been one-dimensional with Kirk Cousins throwing for fewer than 200 yards in five of seven starts. The Saints are ninth in defensive success rate, while Tyler Shough has been getting better every week and could earn the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award with another strong performance. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these NFC South rivals, so give me the points with New Orleans.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have 137.6 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. The leading projections forecast Kirk Cousins to attempt 36.3 passes this week, on average: the 5th-most among all quarterbacks.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Falcons profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year.

The Dolphins defense is so bad and the Patriots offense is so good that it won't matter how much the Dolphins can score for this Over to hit. 

Mike McDaniels' Dolphins teams have always struggled in cold weather and the Patriots need this win to try and get the 1-seed in the AFC. 

Not only have the Jets lost by an average of 26.8 points during their four-game losing skid, they’ve also failed to cover the spread in all four while allowing the highest offensive success rate and dropback EPA per play. Now, New York heads to Highmark Stadium to face a Buffalo offense looking to get back on track in Week 18. The Bills also have an outside shot of improving their postseason seed, too.

A running game script is implied by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.9% of their downs: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.. The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.. Aaron Rodgers's throwing accuracy has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 63.8% to 66.8%.

A running game script is implied by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.9% of their downs: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.. Our trusted projections expect Kenneth Gainwell to notch 7.4 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among running backs.. The leading projections forecast Kenneth Gainwell to be much more involved in his team's pass attack in this game (22.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (15.6% in games he has played).