NFL Picks

Smith-Njigba registered 92 yards or more in 14 of 19 games for the year with a high-end 76.3 catch percentage, 11.7 aDoT and 35.7% target share. Plus, the New England defense played the easiest schedule by DVOA while ranking 31st in the metric against No. 1 wide receivers, and Smith-Njigba is the best wideout they’ve faced all season.

Kupp finished the regular season with 47 receptions for 593 yards, serving as an integral piece for Sam Darnold and this Seahawks offense. The veteran has done his part in the playoffs as well, cashing the Over in catches in both of Seattle’s games. Kupp compiled five grabs in the blowout victory over the San Francisco 49ers in the Divisional Round. He then hauled in four catches in the NFC Championship against his former team, the Los Angeles Rams.

In his first game off IR after missing four games, he played more snaps than Stefon Diggs and, despite finishing with just two catches, accounted for 20% of the team’s receptions and 59% of the passing yards. His pre-injury volume is easy to forget, but he saw 42 targets over his previous six games (seven per game) and led all New England pass catchers with a 22.2% target share, ahead of Diggs (4.5 targets per game) and Hunter Henry (3.5). A negative game script and forecasted perfect weather only add to the appeal.

Both teams rank near the bottom of the league in pace which will lead to fewer offensive plays and tackles across the board. Patriots safety Jaylinn Hawkins has finished with fewer than 4.5 solo and assisted tackles in his last five games. Hawkins primarily lines up at deep safety and I'm expecting a conservative offensive gameplan from Seattle with few deep throws for Sam Darnold.

Both teams rank near the bottom of the league in pace which will lead to fewer offensive plays and tackles across the board. Seahawks linebacker Ernest Jones IV has finished with fewer than 8.5 tackles in four consecutive games and is averaging 6.0 total tackles per game during that span.

Sam Darnold has thrown 11 interceptions in his last 13 games with most of those coming on short and intermediate throws in the middle of the field. Marcus Jones primarily covers receivers in the slot which leads to him shadowing inside routes. Jones has recorded a team-high four interceptions and 15 passes defended during the regular season and playoffs. I wouldn't put a full unit on this longshot bet but it's worth a sprinkle at +600.

Drake Maye has a tendency to hold on to the ball too long with his receivers struggling to get separation. The Patriots QB was sacked 47 times in the regular season and has absorbed another 15 sacks in the playoffs. He'll take another beating in the Super Bowl with the Seahawks boasting strong coverage and a fierce pass rush. Seattle rotates four edge rushers so it's hard to bet on any one player. That said, DeMarcus Lawrence has seen the highest snap share since Week 15 and has been the most productive. The veteran has picked up a sack in three of his last four games while logging 17 pressures.

Seattle DT Byron Murphy II might have been the biggest Pro Bowl snub this year. He tied for the team lead with seven sacks during the regular season while ranking seventh among all interior linemen in QB pressures. Murphy usually lines up at right DT which gives him a favorable matchup against LG Jared Wilson. The rookie is the weak link in the Pats offensive line and has a pass blocking grade of 42.8, which ranks 75th among 81 qualifying guards. Drake Maye has been sacked 15 times in the playoffs and Murphy should add to that at Super Bowl 60.

We finally get Shaheed facing a man-centric scheme in Super Bowl LX. New England runs man at a Top 10 rate and Shaheed will have plenty of one-on-one opportunities, especially with WR1 Jaxson Smith-Njigba drawing extra attention. Shaheed’s projections for SBLX all sit north of his receiving yards prop with a ceiling closer to 30 yards. The last time he faced a defense that ran man as much as the Pats, he torched the New York Giants for 114 yards as a member of the New Orleans Saints in Week 5.

My first bet for Super Bowl LX was Seattle moneyline when odds hit the board two weeks ago. The Seahawks feel like the right side, considering the Patriots have never taken on a foe that can score and shut down scoring like Seattle. New England’s path to glory needs high-variance occurrences, like turnovers or scores from the defense/special teams. It the Seahawks keep it simple, they win Super Bowl LX.