NFL Picks

The Ravens struggled to defend the run at the start of the year but have shored up that area over the last few weeks. They held the Rams to 74 yards on 23 rush attempts before going on their bye in Week 7. Last week they limited the Bears to 92 yards on 23 carries with 22 of those yards coming on a scramble by Caleb Williams against prevent defense. More than 68% of Achane's rush attempts come on inside zone and outside zone run plays and Baltimore allows just 3.5 yards per carry on those plays. And with the Ravens installed as 7.5-point favorites, the Phins could be forced to abandon the run if they fall behind early. 

Jackson has rushed for 35 or more yards in three of four games this season and 15 of 19 in 2024, including the playoffs. And, if the two-time MVP winner is healthy enough to start, he’s going to be involved in the ground game, and opponents have been running all over the Dolphins. Additionally, Jackson hasn’t had a rushing-yards total this low the past two years. We’re obviously landing this number because he’s missed the past three games with a hamstring injury, and while there’s always the risk of aggravation or a change in game plan, I’m not anticipating it.

Here’s my weekly attempt at guessing which Denver player Sean Payton will feature on offense. Fair warning — I haven’t had much luck with this game. That said, after RJ Harvey’s two rushing touchdowns and one receiving score last week, where he handled 50% of the red-zone opportunities, I’m back on him to score again at +350 (compared to +130 for his backfield mate). Harvey’s snap share was just 28%, but he was heavily involved when on the field, converting both of his opportunities inside the five into touchdowns. That’s simply too long a price for a talented rookie with defined red-zone work. The matchup is tough, but that’s baked into the number. Harvey closed at +300, +270, and +240 over the last three weeks, yet the market hasn’t adjusted for his expanding role. I'm playing this to +280. 

The Texans rank as the 7th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 64.0% pass rate.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see 135.0 offensive plays called: the 3rd-most among all games this week.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.. The projections expect C.J. Stroud to attempt 37.5 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-most among all quarterbacks.

The Niners are coming off a one-sided loss to a very stout Houston team and while San Francisco stays on the road – travelling all the way to New Jersey for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff – it’s in a much better spot than the Giants. New York suffered a gutting loss at Philadelphia on Sunday, not just getting slammed by a vengeful defending champion but watching electric rookie RB and unofficial mascot Cam Skattebo go down with a gruesome ankle injury. While the G-Men are losing bodies, the 49ers are getting them back. Quarterback Brock Purdy has a good shot at returning under center after another week of practice and the pressure of Sunday’s loss forcing a change at QB. New York’s defense was already dealing with injuries in Week 8 and could be down two starting defensive backs. The Giants have allowed 26, 33 and 38 points in three of their last four contests.

The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.4 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The New York Giants have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.. The Giants O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.. The 49ers defense has yielded the 4th-most receiving touchdowns in the league to RBs: 0.38 per game this year.. This year, the formidable 49ers run defense has yielded a meager 0.50 TDs on the ground per game to opposing offenses: the 6th-lowest rate in the league.

Indianapolis’ improbable 7-1 SU start to 2025 is impressive but that has been helped along by a softer sked and plenty of home cooking. This trip to the Steel City is just the fourth away game for the Colts and only the second outdoor outing for Indy. The Steelers sit in or just outside of the Top 10 in many advanced metrics, with a strong ground game anchoring this playbook. Pittsburgh is No. 4 in rushing DVOA, No. 6 in success rate per handoff, and No. 10 in EPA per run. Taking to the testy turf at Acrisure Stadium is the best plan of attack for the Steelers in Week 9. Indianapolis’ defense has seen the second lowest run rate from foes, due to jumping to big leads, but ranks in the bottom third of the NFL in several run defense measurements. Those rotten run stop results come despite facing some deplorable or depleted rushing offenses.

This line is giving the Steelers too much respect. The 7-1 Colts are a wagon, and the Steelers have lost consecutive games without any stop in their defense. It’s bad news for Pittsburgh with Indy heading to the Steel City averaging the most yards per play, highest EPA per play and leading the NFL in points per game (33.8). Add the Colts defense ranking better than the Steelers in DVOA, EPA and yards per play allowed, and I’m happy to lay the wood with Indy.

Josh Jacobs didn’t look fully healthy Sunday night, managing just 33 yards on 13 carries while working through a calf injury. Emanuel Wilson, meanwhile, showed more burst, picking up 61 yards on 11 carries and matching Jacobs with four red-zone opportunities. This game could get one-sided if Bryce Young can’t play, which opens up more scoring chances for Wilson. In a strong offense facing a soft matchup, Wilson’s anytime touchdown at +295 to +300 has solid value. The main risk is volume—he could see as few as six carries—but with the team a 13-point favorite, he’s worth a play, especially if Young is ruled out. He could be a sneaky bet to finish with 10+ carries. 

This game's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Panthers, who are enormous -13-point underdogs.. The Carolina Panthers have called the 6th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.9 plays per game.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 41.7 pass attempts per game against the Packers defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.. The Carolina O-line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.. This year, the anemic Green Bay Packers defense has given up a monstrous 73.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 9th-highest rate in the NFL.

Aaron Jones returned last week and immediately took control of the backfield, leading in snap share (53%), route share (44%), and carries (five). The offense struggled overall, so volume was limited, but Jones is the back-to-back on Sunday. He was the only running back to see a red-zone carry and also drew a target. Don’t read too much into the low carry count, as starters were pulled late. The key takeaway is usage—Jones handled nearly two-thirds of the backfield opportunities, signaling he’s the clear lead option. With the potential negative game script and Jones' role as a pass catcher, I'd play this to +180. 

If there's one thing we know about the Lions during the Jared Goff era, it's that they light up the scoreboard at home. They are third in the league in scoring (30.7 ppg) this year while ranking seventh in EPA/play. They should move the ball against a Minnesota D that's been exposed the last two weeks. Last week, the Vikings surrendered 419 yards and 37 points to the Chargers, and the week before, Jalen Hurts threw for 326 yards on 14.2 yards per attempt against them. The core of this Lions offense has been together for years, and they know how to handle this blitz-heavy Brian Flores defense. They've scored 30+ points in the last five meetings between these NFC North rivals

The Chargers lost three starters to injury last week, including cornerback Tarheeb Still, who’s expected to miss significant time, and defensive leader Derwin James. With the Titans up next, there’s little reason to rush James back. Given the defensive injuries, a likely negative game script for Tennessee, and Calvin Ridley still not practicing, Chimere Dike at +300 stands out as a solid play. If Ridley sits again, Dike will operate as the WR1 after posting 7 catches for 93 yards last week, leading all Titans pass catchers. His snap share jumped to 88% from a season average of 49%, and the offense ran 3-WR sets on 79% of plays. There’s also some quiet optimism about this offense speeding up under the new head coach. Tennessee ran eight more plays than its season average last week, despite facing another game-trailing script.

Keenan Allen had a quiet night vs. Minnesota last Thursday: on only 18 snaps. Harbaugh was asked about that sudden downtick in work and said it had more to do with personnel and the fact the Bolts were blowing out the Vikings. Allen still sits tied for second among all WRs with 12 red zone targets entering Week 9. And it’s not just inside the 20-yard line that the veteran can do damage. He’s just as dangerous on deep balls and this Titans secondary has allowed plenty of home runs and is without top corner L’Jarius Sneed. Tennessee leaning into more zone coverage, which is Allen’s favorite concept to crack.

Drake Maye is a legit MVP contender entering Week 9, and the Falcons' defense is not as good as maybe we thought after the Dolphins wacked them last week. The potential loss of safety, Jessie Bates, is also a huge bonus for Maye and this New England offense. Stefon Diggs is the target this week at +155 with a buy to +135/+140. Diggs' role is getting stronger, and his work in the red zone is very valuable, as this is a very inefficient running team, especially near the goal line. Diggs tied for the position lead in RZ targets last week with three and brought one in for a score.

Starting QB Michael Penix Jr. and London are officially day to day heading toward the weekend. The defense could also see key cogs back this Sunday. Safety Jessie Bates, CB Billy Bowman Jr., DL Zach Harrison, and edge Jalon Walker also got the “day to day” tag from head coach Raheem Morris. Atlanta is going to need all those defenders in action to contain Drake Maye and this explosive New England attack. The Patriots second-year QB has been slinging it, sitting second in completed air yards as well as big plays, with 29 completions for 20-plus yards. Morris’ defense doesn’t give up home runs, limiting foes to 4.9 yards per play and allowing a league-low 11 completed passes of 20 or more yards. Atlanta’s zone-centric schemes are the perfect foil for Maye’s deep shots, as the quarterback is elite against man-to-man but sees a downtick in completion rate, catchable balls, and overall passer rating versus zone.

Caleb Williams not living up to the hype to start his second year but has a chance to pad his stats against a poor passing defense in Cincinnati. The Bengals sit dead last in several stats against the air attack and allow the second most passing TDs per game. Justin Fields looked like a capable QB against them last week and projections for Williams leaning toward two TD throws. The Bears red zone offense is shit, luckily Cincy’s RZ defense is just as doo doo. 

The Bengals will be forced to start backup QB Joe Flacco in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to pass on 66.0% of their downs: the highest frequency on the slate this week.. The projections expect the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.2% red zone pass rate.. The predictive model expects this game to boast the 3rd-fastest tempo on the slate this week, averaging 25.25 seconds per play based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. With an impressive 30.0% Red Zone Target% (99th percentile) this year, Ja'Marr Chase stands as one of the wide receivers with the highest volume near the goal line in football.

There could be some value in Travis Hunter this week, as many have forgotten his breakout performance in Week 7 before the bye. Against the Rams, the rookie posted eight catches on 14 targets for over 100 yards and a touchdown. In an indoor matchup with the Raiders, I’d have this priced closer to +150. There’s also talk of Brian Thomas being on the trade block after looking checked out this season. This sets up as an elite spot indoors, and even Travis Etienne at -105 looks appealing. The Raiders are one of the league’s weakest teams, and this might be the last week bettors can grab Hunter at +200 or better. He is WR1 now.

A running game script is implied by the Jaguars being a 3-point favorite this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see only 124.9 plays on offense run: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.. Travis Etienne's 10.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 16.4.. Travis Etienne's 72.6% Adjusted Catch Rate this year illustrates a noteable drop-off in his pass-catching ability over last year's 77.0% rate.. The Raiders pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (75.8%) to running backs this year (75.8%).

Los Angeles’ defense has been exceptional in recent games, giving up scores of only three, seven, 20, and 23 in the past four. The Rams are tied for the third-fewest yards allowed per play (4.7) and are the top red-zone defense in TD rate (40%). The New Orleans Saints offense is a mess. Quarterback Spencer Rattler was given the hook for rookie Tyler Shough in the loss to Tampa Bay in Week 7, in which NOLA managed a measly field goal. New Orleans is the least explosive attack and has cracked the 20-point plateau only twice in its eight games. As for the Saints defense, it’s better than it looks on the surface. New Orleans checked Tampa Bay to just 212 yards this Sunday and is surprisingly stout in the red zone, holding its last four foes to a collective 6-for-14 in terms of TD success inside the 20-yard line. If you wonder about this Under, grab it now on the right side of the key O/U number of 44.

The projections expect the Rams to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.3% pass rate.. The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 138.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being projected in this game) generally correlate with better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume.. While Puka Nacua has garnered 17.1% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more important option in Los Angeles's pass game near the end zone this week at 26.3%.. Puka Nacua has totaled significantly more air yards this year (97.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).

It’s MVP vs. MVP, and I’m backing Josh Allen to find the end zone at plus money. Allen has scored four rushing touchdowns in his last four games against the Chiefs and is coming off a game where he ran just three times for seven yards—but two of those carries went for scores. The Bills have their own version of the tush push, and when they get inside the five, James Cook TD bettors have every reason to sweat, as Allen continues to steal short-yardage touchdowns. Last week, his TD price closed at -120, and it’s been as short as -165 this season. In a high-profile matchup like this, Allen should rise to the occasion at home, where he’s scored 37 rushing touchdowns in 58 career games. It's an A+ at +110, and I'd play it to -120. 

Keon Coleman has stayed below his receiving yards prop in three of the last four weeks, including just three catches on four targets for 30 yards in last Sunday’s blowout of the Panthers. Some of that was Buffalo playing with a lead and running more but OC Joe Brady admitted this week that he has to do a better job getting Coleman involved in the offense. Projections for Coleman range from 37 yards to a ceiling of 57, with the majority of models coming in north of 40 yards receiving. Given the high point total for this showdown with the Chiefs, there could be more passing opportunities and targets coming Coleman’s way in Week 9.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have 133.5 offensive plays run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.. The model projects Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be a more integral piece of his team's passing offense near the end zone in this contest (30.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (17.4% in games he has played).. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has totaled far more air yards this year (125.0 per game) than he did last year (73.0 per game).. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 93.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 57.6.. With an excellent 74.3% Adjusted Completion% (79th percentile) this year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba places among the most reliable receivers in football when it comes to WRs.

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs this week, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Commanders are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 67.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-most among all teams this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 42.0 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: most in football.. The Seattle cornerbacks profile as the 4th-worst unit in football this year in covering receivers.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cowboys to pass on 61.4% of their plays: the 6th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.. The Cowboys have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 59.0 plays per game.. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game versus the Cardinals defense this year: 6th-most in football.. With an excellent record of 258.0 adjusted passing yards per game (92nd percentile), Dak Prescott stands among the best quarterbacks in the NFL this year.

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in football (63.2% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Arizona Cardinals.. The leading projections forecast the Cardinals to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.11 seconds per play.. The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.. Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game versus the Cowboys defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-highest rate in football versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year (77.4% Adjusted Completion%).

Given the tightness of this spread, bookies expect Anthony Richardson to get right and be the quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts when Week 10 rolls around. Indy's other option is Daniel Jones, who should warrant a spread closer to the field goal. The Atlanta Falcons seem to have their QB1 in Michael Penix Jr. after his strong finish to the season. Atlanta scored 24, 34, and 38 points in its final three games, showcasing plenty of firepower around Penix. I'm rolling with Atlanta in Berlin. 

This is the first time the NFL has ventured to Madrid, and they’re giving the Spanish crowds a solid matchup — if Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy enough to see Week 11. The dark cloud hovering over this one is the grass surface inside Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. That sod was replaced four times during Real Madrid’s most recent La Liga campaign, which was marred by injuries. Many are pointing to the integrity of the hybrid surface as the reason for all those ailments. A shitty field could slow down both the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins offenses. I’ll go Under 49.5 points.

Although the Dallas Cowboys' defense will be more stable under new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, it's hard to overlook a unit that was gashed on the ground and allowed a bottom-five mark in yards per play last season. Patrick Mahomes will torch them on the fast track at Jerry World, boasting a deep arsenal that includes a now-healthy Rashee Rice. With George Pickens joining CeeDee Lamb to bolster the Cowboys’ receiving corps, Dak Prescott should also be able to air it out — even if much of the damage comes in classic garbage-time mop-up duty at AT&T Stadium. The Kansas City Chiefs' defense lost key veterans in the secondary, including corner Charvarius Ward and safety Justin Reid. While their younger replacements may eventually settle into Steve Spagnuolo's system, it could take some time for them to get fully up to speed.

The Cincinnati Bengals have lost their last four games against the Baltimore Ravens and are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head matchups with their AFC North rivals. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry spearheading a loaded offense, Baltimore's defense should also see a boost following the draft selections of safety Malaki Starks and edge rusher Mike Green. Back the Ravens to cover at home, where they went 5-3-1 ATS last season.

The Bears will have a new HC in Ben Johnson, and many people hold him in high regard for his ability to run an offense. He'll have a full complement of weapons to work with, including Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. And on defense, they should be stout in the trenches and on the outside. The Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl victory, could be in for a letdown this year, and while this November clash is three months into the season, things could snowball if the team isn't 100% focused from Week 1. 

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.