NFL Picks

A lot has changed since the Packers beat the Lions at Lambeau in Week 1. Green Bay's stop unit has slightly regressed after looking dominant at the start of the year. Meanwhile, the Packers offense has been sapped by injuries to WR Jayden Reed, TE Tucker Kraft, and center Elgton Jenkins. This should be a close game so home-field advantage could make the difference. With Jared Goff under center and their speed at the skill positions, the Lions tend to perform better indoors, especially in front of their fans at Ford Field. The Lions have gone 4-1 SU at home this year while the Packers are 1-4 ATS on the road.

With the Detroit o-line crumbling and TE Brock Wright on the fence with a neck injury, Gibbs will be Goff’s escape hatch when the Packers pressure mounts. He was targeted 12 times for 11 receptions vs. NY for 45 receiving yards. He drew 10 targets for 10 receptions and 30 yards vs. GBY in Week 1. He’s been more involved as a pass catcher with Cambell calling the plays and the head coach gushed about his versatility and importance of finding ways to get him touches. Projections sit between 4 and 4.5 catches for Gibbs. 

Hunt is the red zone back even with Pacheco getting healthy. This KC offense is very much about trust. Mahomes and Reid trust Hunt when starring down the end zone. Four straight games with a touchdown and faces a horrible RZ defense from the Cowboys, giving up TDs at a 69% clip inside their own 20-yard line.

Rice is a YAC master, averaging just shy of eight yards after the catch on the season. He’s also an elite WR vs. zone coverage, which the Cowboys run at one of the highest rates in the land. Rice has gone Over this longest reception bar in three of his last four games – all coming vs. man-centric schemes - including a 47-yard dinger vs. IND last week. Cowboys have allowed 34 passing plays of 20-plus and lead the NFL in receptions of 40-plus.

If spread and total say anything, it’s that we’ll see plenty of passing from the Bengals. And you don’t throw Joe Burrow back into action to run the ball. Burrow makes his first start since Week 2, and I expect some rust on the Bengals star QB. He will be without Tee Higgins and we could see him forcing deeper shots to Chase, who will draw double coverage. The Ravens pass rush has ramped up and that chaos is generating turnovers. 

Cincy backup Joe Flacco averaged 41.7 pass attempts across his six starts with the club, and he topped 40 in four of those games. Burrow also aired it out 39 times in Week 5 against Baltimore and another 56 times in their Week 10 rematch last year. With the Bengals a sizable road underdog, I'm expecting Cincy leaning on Burrow and the vertical attack early and often in the Thursday nightcap. 

The Bears will have a new HC in Ben Johnson, and many people hold him in high regard for his ability to run an offense. He'll have a full complement of weapons to work with, including Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. And on defense, they should be stout in the trenches and on the outside. The Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl victory, could be in for a letdown this year, and while this November clash is three months into the season, things could snowball if the team isn't 100% focused from Week 1. 

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Bears being a massive -7-point underdog in this week's game.. The Chicago Bears have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 55.4 plays per game.. The Bears offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.. When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Philadelphia's group of safeties has been very bad this year, profiling as the worst in the NFL.

Jacksonville ranks 12th in scoring with the Titans ranking 29th, allowing more than three touchdowns a game.

Jacksonville’s red zone defense has been poor, with opponents scoring touchdowns on nearly 62% of their visits. And while Tennessee hasn’t cashed in at a high rate, the frailties in this Jaguar secondary raise the odds of scoring chances improving.

The Jaguars should thrive off play action against a struggling Titan run defense. Tennessee also throws the ball at the second-highest rate in the league. The strengths of the two offenses match up perfectly with the weaknesses of the opposing defenses, which makes the low total a bit too low for me. 

 

As long as the spread is under a touchdown, I’ll take the Jaguars to cover. They’re now unbeaten ATS on the road, with three wins and a push, after the three-point win over the Cardinals. Jacksonville also will hurt the Titans on the ground, where they rank 27th in yards per carry and 31st in rushing scores allowed. 

Tennessee is also one of the most penalized teams in the NFL. The Titans rank 31st in sack rate allowed, and their poor rushing attack will make them one-dimensional against Jacksonville’s Top 5 rushing defense. And while Trevor Lawrence is turnover prone, this Titan defense doesn’t force many. 

Cam Ward will find some success, but he’s going to be under pressure far too often in obvious passing situations. The Titans might yet again threaten a backdoor cover, but I expect Jacksonville to win by a touchdown or more. 

 

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have 135.1 plays on offense called: the highest number out of all the games this week.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.1 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons profiles as the 10th-best in football this year.. When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New York's unit has been lousy this year, ranking as the 9th-worst in the league.

Recency bias has bumped this Week 13 spread from a look-ahead line of Panthers +9.5 to an official opener of +10.5. Given we’re getting a half-point hook on the key number with the home side, I’ll bite on Carolina. While the Panthers offense looked blinded by the primetime lights in San Francisco, the defense held up for as long as it could despite playing almost 38 minutes and missing stud CB Jaycee Horn in the second half (concussion). Carolina scored three takeaways (two from Horn) and checked the 49ers to 2-of-6 success in the red zone. After playing back-to-back road games and three of their last four away from home, Bank America Stadium is a sight for sore eyes for the Panthers. They’ve been much more competitive in Carolina (-1.0 MoV) and get a real home-field edge in Week 13, with L.A. playing a 1 p.m. ET start (10 a.m. PT) and possibly doing so in the rain. 

The Panthers are an enormous 10.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. The predictive model expects Bryce Young to throw 35.7 passes in this contest, on average: the 9th-most out of all QBs.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.. The Carolina O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 10th-most adjusted yards in the league (244.0 per game) against the Rams defense this year.

The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see just 127.3 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest among all games this week.

The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see just 127.3 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest among all games this week.

The Cardinals are 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS in their last nine games while ranking 28th in defensive success rate. Tampa Bay was a 6.5-point home favorite on the lookahead line before that swung to -2.5 after QB Baker Mayfield was injured in Sunday night's ugly loss to the Rams. He was diagnosed with a low grade sprain in his non-throwing shoulder which means there's a decent chance the tough QB will play on Sunday. Chris Godwin returned from a six-week absence in Week 12, and standout RB Bucky Irving is expected to return this week after missing the last two months. That puts the betting value on the Bucs, who have since moved to -3. I'd bet that number but you can still get the -2.5 at -115 if you shop around. 

The 49ers offense faces not only a disruptive Cleveland defense in Week 13 but also some nasty weather. The extended forecast is calling for a mix of rain and snow with wind gusts up to 30 mph and temperatures that “feel like” 27 degrees. Niners QB Brock Purdy is mired in turnover troubles while the Browns will start rookie QB Shedeur Sanders. I’m grabbing the Under early in the week before books take a chunk out of this number due to the forecast.

The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a running game script.. The leading projections forecast the 49ers to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 26.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense this year: fewest in the league.. George Kittle's 38.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 48.4.. George Kittle's 3.9 adjusted receptions per game this year indicates a noteable drop-off in his pass-catching talent over last year's 5.3 figure.

The Colts have the highest-scoring offense in the NFL, but the Texans have one of the best defenses in the league, capable of containing Jonathan Taylor. Houston's offense also gets a major boost this week with franchise QB CJ Stroud expected to return after missing the last three weeks. They won three in a row despite having Davis Mills under center. With Stroud back, they'll be better suited to take advantage of a Colts defense that ranks 24th in success rate. Indy is atop the AFC South, but the final six weeks will be crucial with four games against Jacksonville and Houston. This should be a dog-fight between two division rivals who have a lot at stake. 

The Texans thrive in playing low scoring game and are going to do everything possible to keep this game low scoring so they can stay competitive. 

Things look bleak for the Vikings passing game, with undrafted rookie Max Brosmer likely getting the sacrificial start in Seattle. The Seahawks pass pressure won’t give him much time in the pocket and Kevin O’Connell will lean on Jones as a quick and easy receiving option to help get Brosmer going early as well as avoid pressure. Jones has been targeted more in recent games, with 16 targets for nine catches the past three games. Seahawks have allowed the fifth most rec yds to RBs this season and Jones’ projections sit as high as 22 yards in Week 13.

J.J. McCarthy finished 12-for-19 passing for a measly 87 yards along with two interceptions in the road loss at Green Bay in Week 12. The Vikings has failed to crack 20 points in three straight games and now head to Lumen Field to take on another elite defense. The Seahawks got a bit of a scare in Tennessee on Sunday but still limited the Titans to 17 points on offense, checking them to 4.4 yards per play and sacking rookie QB Cam Ward four times. Sam Darnold takes on his former club and needs to be wary of the Vikings’ blitz-heavy schemes. That means quicker hits and lots of handoffs, with little time in the pocket for deeper strikes to develop. This total opened just shy of the key number of 44 points and is already sinking like a stone in the opening hours of action. Grab the Under 43.5 now, as the next stop is 42.5 with little reason to like the Over.

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.. The projections expect the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects Jaylen Warren to be a much smaller part of his team's run game near the end zone in this game (60.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (71.0% in games he has played).. Jaylen Warren's 96.2% Adjusted Catch% this season signifies a substantial improvement in his receiving proficiency over last season's 89.6% mark.. With an exceptional ratio of 0.10 per game through the air (76th percentile), Jaylen Warren stands as one of the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the league among running backs this year.

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.. The projections expect the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Buffalo Bills cornerbacks grade out as the 6th-worst CB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

The Raiders are the NFL's lowest scoring team, averaging just 15 points per game, and won't put up enough points to hit the Over on the total.

The Chargers are 2-0-1 ATS against their divisional rivals.

Denver sends an elite defense out against Washington and backup quarterback Marcus Mariota. The Broncos are fourth in defensive DVOA and have allowed the third-fewest points per game, so I expect Mariota to struggle Sunday. Of course, Denver also has the highest pressure percentage in the league and paces the NFL in sacks.

A rushing game script is implied by the Broncos being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game.

The Giants haven’t won on the road all season, and the Pats have rolled off nine straight wins with quarterback Drake Maye pacing the NFL in adjusted EPA per play and completion percentage during the run. Plus, New York entered Week 12 ranked 28th in defensive DVOA and has allowed the third-most points per game.

The Patriots are a massive 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 53.0% of their chances: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.