NFL Picks

Although the Dallas Cowboys' defense will be more stable under new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, it's hard to overlook a unit that was gashed on the ground and allowed a bottom-five mark in yards per play last season. Patrick Mahomes will torch them on the fast track at Jerry World, boasting a deep arsenal that includes a now-healthy Rashee Rice. With George Pickens joining CeeDee Lamb to bolster the Cowboys’ receiving corps, Dak Prescott should also be able to air it out — even if much of the damage comes in classic garbage-time mop-up duty at AT&T Stadium. The Kansas City Chiefs' defense lost key veterans in the secondary, including corner Charvarius Ward and safety Justin Reid. While their younger replacements may eventually settle into Steve Spagnuolo's system, it could take some time for them to get fully up to speed.

This is a great spot for Andrews to bounce back against the league's worst defense at defending the tight end position. Cincinatti is allowing a league-high 87.4 receiving yards to the position which is a rediculous 17 more yards than the next closest team. They've allowed two seperate TEs to go for 100+ yards in their last three games. Andrews has underwhemled this season but is still second on the team in targets. He's topped 37.5 yards in seven of his last eight games against the Bengals.

The Cincinnati Bengals have lost their last four games against the Baltimore Ravens and are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head matchups with their AFC North rivals. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry spearheading a loaded offense, Baltimore's defense should also see a boost following the draft selections of safety Malaki Starks and edge rusher Mike Green. Back the Ravens to cover at home, where they went 5-3-1 ATS last season.

The Bears will have a new HC in Ben Johnson, and many people hold him in high regard for his ability to run an offense. He'll have a full complement of weapons to work with, including Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. And on defense, they should be stout in the trenches and on the outside. The Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl victory, could be in for a letdown this year, and while this November clash is three months into the season, things could snowball if the team isn't 100% focused from Week 1. 

Jacksonville ranks 12th in scoring with the Titans ranking 29th, allowing more than three touchdowns a game.

Jacksonville’s red zone defense has been poor, with opponents scoring touchdowns on nearly 62% of their visits. And while Tennessee hasn’t cashed in at a high rate, the frailties in this Jaguar secondary raise the odds of scoring chances improving.

The Jaguars should thrive off play action against a struggling Titan run defense. Tennessee also throws the ball at the second-highest rate in the league. The strengths of the two offenses match up perfectly with the weaknesses of the opposing defenses, which makes the low total a bit too low for me. 

As long as the spread is under a touchdown, I’ll take the Jaguars to cover. They’re now unbeaten ATS on the road, with three wins and a push, after the three-point win over the Cardinals. Jacksonville also will hurt the Titans on the ground, where they rank 27th in yards per carry and 31st in rushing scores allowed. 

Tennessee is also one of the most penalized teams in the NFL. The Titans rank 31st in sack rate allowed, and their poor rushing attack will make them one-dimensional against Jacksonville’s Top 5 rushing defense. And while Trevor Lawrence is turnover prone, this Titan defense doesn’t force many. 

Cam Ward will find some success, but he’s going to be under pressure far too often in obvious passing situations. The Titans might yet again threaten a backdoor cover, but I expect Jacksonville to win by a touchdown or more. 

The Colts have the highest-scoring offense in the NFL but the Texans have one of the best defenses in the league with the ability to contain Jonathan Taylor. Houston's offense also gets a major boost this week with franchise QB CJ Stroud expected to return after missing the last three weeks. They were able to win three in a row despite having Davis Mills under center. With Stroud back, they'll be better suited to take advantage of a Colts defense that ranks 24th in success rate. Indy is atop the AFC South but the final six weeks will be crucial with four games against Jacksonville and Houston. This should be a dog-fight between two division rivals who have a lot at stake. 

The Texans thrive in playing low scoring game and are going to do everything possible to keep this game low scoring so they can stay competitive. 

J.J. McCarthy finished 12-for-19 passing for a measly 87 yards along with two interceptions in the road loss at Green Bay in Week 12. The Vikings has failed to crack 20 points in three straight games and now head to Lumen Field to take on another elite defense. The Seahawks got a bit of a scare in Tennessee on Sunday but still limited the Titans to 17 points on offense, checking them to 4.4 yards per play and sacking rookie QB Cam Ward four times. Sam Darnold takes on his former club and needs to be wary of the Vikings’ blitz-heavy schemes. That means quicker hits and lots of handoffs, with little time in the pocket for deeper strikes to develop. This total opened just shy of the key number of 44 points and is already sinking like a stone in the opening hours of action. Grab the Under 43.5 now, as the next stop is 42.5 with little reason to like the Over.

The Raiders are the NFL's lowest scoring team, averaging just 15 points per game, and won't put up enough points to hit the Over on the total.

The Chargers are 2-0-1 ATS against their divisional rivals.

Denver sends an elite defense out against Washington and backup quarterback Marcus Mariota. The Broncos are fourth in defensive DVOA and have allowed the third-fewest points per game, so I expect Mariota to struggle Sunday. Of course, Denver also has the highest pressure percentage in the league and paces the NFL in sacks.

The Giants haven’t won on the road all season, and the Pats have rolled off nine straight wins with quarterback Drake Maye pacing the NFL in adjusted EPA per play and completion percentage during the run. Plus, New York entered Week 12 ranked 28th in defensive DVOA and has allowed the third-most points per game.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.