NFL Picks

Chubb has rushed for more than 30 yards in eight of 10 games this year. While he had just three carries for 17 yards last week, expect a bigger workload on Thursday night. While Chubb has been ceding snaps to Woody Marks in recent weeks, the rookie hasn't been doing much with the extra carries. Marks had just 44 yards on 18 carries against Tennessee's piss-poor run defense in Week 11 and he's averaging 3.3 ypa over his last five games. That inefficiency from Marks could result in closer to a 50/50 split for the Texans running back duo this week. That should give Chubb more than enough carries to eclipse 20.5 yards against a Bills D that struggles against the run.  

Houston is 18th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game to opposing QBs while ranking dead-last in yards allowed per scramble (10.7). That's bad news against Bills pivot Josh Allen who is big, fast, and more than willing to pick up tough yards on the ground. The reigning NFL MVP is second among all QBs with 351 rushing yards this season. The Texans lead the league in defensive dropback EPA and have the second-highest pass rush grade per PFF. If Allen is unable to find open receivers or feels pressure in the pocket, he'll take off and try to make plays with his feet.

I’ve seen enough of JJ McCarthy to avoid all Minnesota skill players against this defense, but Josh Whyle is a name I’m excited to take a swing on at this number. With Tucker Kraft out, there’s no clear answer at tight end, which opens the door for Whyle. He stole snaps from Luke Musgrave last week and scored on his only target. No Packers tight end had more than one catch, and the wide receiver room is crowded again with players returning. Add in the uncertainty around Josh Jacobs’ knee, and there may be a need for auxiliary help near the goal line. Whyle’s role is growing as he enters his third game with the team, and at this price, I’m comfortable throwing a full-unit dart.

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Packers are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Green Bay Packers to pass on 54.4% of their plays: the 7th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. Our trusted projections expect the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.84 seconds per play.. The projections expect Jordan Love to attempt 32.8 passes this week, on average: the 9th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.. Opposing teams have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game against the Vikings defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.

Alec Pierce has hit the Over on his receiving yards in every game this season, and the last time bettors saw him, he led the Colts’ receivers in Berlin with 84 yards and a touchdown. Since returning to the lineup, Pierce has racked up 414 yards in five games. He’s not the same red-zone threat as Josh Downs (+320), but Daniel Jones trusts him on deep, contested targets. The Chiefs are overvalued, and Pierce has taken over as the Colts’ WR1 and the No. 2 option behind Ty Warren. A yardage prop of 60.5 is too cheap for his current role. I’m playing this to +240.

Indianapolis comes into this matchup fresh and focused off the bye week. The Colts’ ground game is the key to putting a nail in KC’s coffin. Running back Jonathan Taylor is on an MVP track, powering the NFL’s top rushing attack in all the sexy analytics. Buffalo was able to grind out gains on the ground against Kansas City and dominate the football for more than 34 minutes in Week 9, setting the blueprint for Indy. The Colts can play “keep-away” in an effort to help their defense limit Mahomes’ time on the field. And speaking of the defense, coordinator Lou Anarumo has plenty of experience planning for Andy Reid’s attack. He faced the Chiefs six times as the DC in Cincinnati (with far less talent), including a playoff win at Arrowhead in 2022.

I’m always interested in high-priced tight end touchdown shots. Noah Fant ran the most routes and played the most snaps among Bengals TEs in Week 11, and he caught more passes (five) than any of their receivers. Since Mike Gesicki went down, Fant has posted two touchdowns and 14 catches over four games. The wrinkle is Gesicki’s return, as his practice window opened this week. Bringing him back now would be a bit rushed, and even if he’s activated, Fant has established a clear role with Joe Flacco — a quarterback Gesicki has played only two snaps with. Gesicki has just eight catches in six games, which makes an early position on Fant easier to justify. You can also wait for clarity, as Fant has closed around this price for a touchdown in four straight weeks. The Patriots are a Top-10 matchup for opposing TEs. 

The Cincinnati Bengals will be starting backup quarterback Joe Flacco in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.. This week's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Bengals, who are huge -8.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 68.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.7% red zone pass rate.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see 130.5 total plays run: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.

The Bears continue to play with fire, owning a 7-3 SU record despite an average MoV of -0.6 points. All but one of those seven victories have come in one-score games, with five decided by five points or less. Regression is catching the L Train to Soldier Field this Sunday. Pittsburgh’s defense can give Chicago a taste of its own medicine in Week 12. The Bears have thrived on takeaways to keep the team afloat, which has been the Steelers’ specialty for years. Mike Tomlin’s unit has looked much stronger the past three games, sitting No. 6 in EPA per play while collecting eight takeaways and 11 sacks. Bears quarterback Caleb Williams has faced the 10th highest pressure rate per dropback, leads the league in hurries suffered (48), and ranks fourth in pressured throws. His 44.7% completion rate under duress is 33rd among all QBs.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bears to pass on 54.8% of their chances: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. The Steelers cornerbacks project as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

Baltimore’s other tight end has been gradually putting in more work since returning to play at the end of September, and that includes his role as a receiver. After being targeted a total of just five times in his first four games, Likely has drawn 12 targets over the last three games. The 6-foot-4 TE scored 13 TDs over the past two years but has yet to find the end zone in 2025. The Jets are just the team to end that drought, giving up seven scores to the position this season. Likely to strike-ly at +300.

The leading projections forecast the Ravens to call the 6th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. Lamar Jackson comes in as one of the most accurate QBs in football this year with an exceptional 68.5% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 79th percentile.. With a fantastic 8.49 adjusted yards-per-target (94th percentile) this year, Lamar Jackson places among the most effective passers in the NFL.. The Jets linebackers grade out as the 9th-worst unit in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

The Giants’ backfield usage doesn’t match the touchdown odds. Devin Singletary has 13 red-zone carries to Tyrone Tracy’s three since Cam Skattebo went down, yet Tracy is priced shorter to score. That doesn’t make much sense. Last week, the backfield was a true 50/50 split, and the two combined for 35 carries. Singletary handled nine of the team’s 10 red-zone rushing attempts and scored twice. The offense isn’t pretty, but he owns the red-zone role and can handle 15-plus touches. Anything above +200 is a buy for me, even in a likely negative game script.

The Lions are coming off a loss to the Eagles, but they have a tendency to underperform on the road outdoors against good teams. On the other hand, they tend to blow out bad teams at home, and the 2-9 Giants are definitely bad. Detroit's two-headed rushing attack of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery will shred a New York front that is dead-last in the league in defensive rush EPA. Even if QB Jaxson Dart returns to the Giants lineup after suffering a concussion, they don't have the weapons to move the ball against a Lions stop unit that ranks fourth in the NFL in defensive success rate.

Seattle a two-TD fave in Nashville facing a Titans defense that sits at the bottom of the run stop metrics, including 31st in run stop win rate. Walker coming off a huge game against the Rams last week with 111 total yards – 67 on the ground from 16 carries. That didn’t go ignored by head coach Mike Macdonald who told reporters, ““I think Ken’s showing that he’s earning more opportunities to get the ball.” Most projections for Walker sit north of 60 yards with a ceiling of 70. Game script says Seattle runs and runs a lot. 

Kenneth Walker III's 93.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this season reflects a noteable boost in his receiving skills over last season's 88.7% figure.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-highest level in the NFL vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year (75.8% Adjusted Completion%).. The Tennessee Titans defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-best DE corps in football this year in regard to run defense.

The Over is 5-1 in Arizona's last six, and 4-0 in Jacksonville's road games this season. Those trends should continue.

Both teams struggle to protect the goal line when opponents breach the red zone. Jacksonville's secondary is still giving up big plays too often, while the Cardinals are struggling to stop the run and keep turning the ball over in bad spots.

Arizona's offense will put up some numbers, with an offense ranked fifth in third down conversion rate and 11th in completion rate. I like both teams to clear the 24-point threshold and push this total Over.  

Jacksonville still has its sights set on the playoffs, and got the run game going against the Chargers. It's an area where Arizona struggles defensively, especially recently.

The Jaguars will follow the script of the 49ers and Seahawks, and look to run the ball while setting up play action. They'll also capitalize on turnovers, with the Cardinals coughing it up five times in the last two games. 

Jacksonville has been favored three times this season, and covered twice with a push. I'll back them to keep the playoff push going against a Cardinal team that has little left to play for. 

Bowers put in a good game against the Cowboys on MNF, targeted 12 times for seven catches and 72 yards. After being slowed by injuries for most of the season, the Raiders TE is finally healthy and quickly becoming Geno Smith’s favorite option. And speaking of Geno, he goes from facing the zone-heavy schemes of the Cowboys to the most man-centric secondary from Cleveland. Smith’s career man vs. zone splits are the thing of legend among prop bettors. Bowers projections top out at 72 yards with most on the other side of this total. 

At the moment, the 9th-most pass-focused offense in the league (62.1% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Raiders.. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. This year, the tough Cleveland Browns run defense has given up a paltry 0.50 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing squads: the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL.. When it comes to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Cleveland's group of DEs has been very good this year, projecting as the best in football.

The Cowboys faced an interior foe off a bye on MNF but also played an emotionally charged game after the tragic passing of DE Marshawn Kneeland during that bye week. That does line up a letdown, especially on a short week. This Cowboys offense has little time to prepare for Vic Fangio’s schemes. Philadelphia’s defense has been the backbone of this current winning streak, shutting down the Lions and Packers to a combined 16 points. The Eagles have quickly climbed the defensive metrics since Week 7, sitting tops in EPA allowed per play in those four outings. Even with this game on the fast track of AT&T Stadium, Philly’s defense will deliver.

Maybe the bye week and defensive acquisitions ahead of the trade deadline will help the Dallas stop unit, but I’m not anticipating significant improvement, and Philadelphia is ripe for a breakout on offense following consecutive low-scoring wins. Of course, the Cowboys have also played to the Over in five of their past six games and average 29.2 points per game while allowing 30.8. I expect this total to climb leading into Sunday afternoon, too.

This Week 12 long shot stays indoors and features a receiver who already has a solid connection with his new quarterback, Kirk Cousins. With Michael Penix out and Drake London sidelined by a PCL injury, the door opens for KhaDarel Hodge. In Week 8, with Cousins under center and London inactive, Hodge saw eight targets and ran a season-high 21 routes. Darnell Mooney has been a non-factor and is dealing with a collarbone issue that may be limiting him. It’s a speculative play, but Hodge has a real chance to be a top-two WR for Atlanta in a favorable matchup. This is a full-unit swing that could close around +500 if he’s confirmed as the WR2.

Things don't look good for the Falcons, who are on a five-game losing streak and just lost QB Michael Penix to a season-ending injury. That said, Kirk Cousins is one of the best backup QBs in the league, and Atlanta is facing New Orleans, which might be the worst team in the NFL. The Saints are 2-8 while ranking 30th in the league in DVOA. The Saints shouldn't be favored against anybody except the Titans, especially not a division rival that won't take this game lightly.

I’m running back last week’s best TD hit and taking Colby Parkinson to score for a third straight game at a big number. Matthew Stafford leans on his tight ends near the goal line, and Parkinson has five red-zone targets over his last three games, including at least one inside the 10 in all three. You won’t see much of him between the 20s — his work comes when it matters. Parkinson leads all Rams tight ends with eight red-zone targets this season, and Stafford has thrown seven red-zone touchdowns to the position. This is the right profile at the right price.

In most universes, Seattle beats the Rams in Week 11 and L.A.’s Week 12 spread looks a little different – likely coming out below the key number of six. Los Angeles’ defense was on the field for almost 38 minutes last Sunday and we’ve seen this stop unit soften a bit in recent games, especially against the pass. The Rams have given up more than 600 yards through the air on 75% completions the past two outings. Now they take on a Tampa Bay team that can score with the best of them – even when it’s not at full strength. The Bucs may have some big guns back with RB Bucky Irving and WR Chris Godwin picking up more practice reps in hopes of avoiding a three-game slide. As for the Tampa defense, it continues to shut the door on opposing rushing attacks. It checked the Bills’ No. 1 run game to only 97 yards and 40 of those gains came from QB Josh Allen, which should throw a wrench in Sean McVay’s play-action plans.

Bryce Young finally showed some life last week, throwing for more yards than any Carolina quarterback has in franchise history. Now he gets a prime-time matchup against a defense that just allowed 47 completions to Jacoby Brissett, an NFL single-game record. Tetairoa McMillan offers one of the safest receiving floors in the league. He accounts for about 30% of Carolina’s targets and 40% of the air yards. Last week, he put up 130 yards on 12 targets with two touchdowns, and he led all Week-11 players with four red-zone targets. This TD price opened at +200, and the adjustment is the only reason it’s not an A-plus play.

With Brock Purdy back under center and WR Ricky Pearsall in the lineup, San Francisco’s offense almost has every key piece in play. It amassed 41 points on just 281 yards, thanks in part to three takeaways from the 49ers defense. San Francisco welcomes Carolina to the Bay Area for a Monday matchup in Week 12. The Panthers are ripe for a letdown spot after a thrilling comeback win over Atlanta in overtime Sunday. Carolina’s comeback was helped along by injuries to Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. and star WR Drake London. Now the Panthers cross the country for their second straight road game and their third away contest in three weeks. Keep an eye on the practice work of QB Bryce Young, who went down twice with two different injuries in Week 11. I’m grabbing the red-hot Niners under the key number of a touchdown right now.

Although the Dallas Cowboys' defense will be more stable under new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, it's hard to overlook a unit that was gashed on the ground and allowed a bottom-five mark in yards per play last season. Patrick Mahomes will torch them on the fast track at Jerry World, boasting a deep arsenal that includes a now-healthy Rashee Rice. With George Pickens joining CeeDee Lamb to bolster the Cowboys’ receiving corps, Dak Prescott should also be able to air it out — even if much of the damage comes in classic garbage-time mop-up duty at AT&T Stadium. The Kansas City Chiefs' defense lost key veterans in the secondary, including corner Charvarius Ward and safety Justin Reid. While their younger replacements may eventually settle into Steve Spagnuolo's system, it could take some time for them to get fully up to speed.

The Cincinnati Bengals have lost their last four games against the Baltimore Ravens and are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head matchups with their AFC North rivals. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry spearheading a loaded offense, Baltimore's defense should also see a boost following the draft selections of safety Malaki Starks and edge rusher Mike Green. Back the Ravens to cover at home, where they went 5-3-1 ATS last season.

The Bears will have a new HC in Ben Johnson, and many people hold him in high regard for his ability to run an offense. He'll have a full complement of weapons to work with, including Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. And on defense, they should be stout in the trenches and on the outside. The Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl victory, could be in for a letdown this year, and while this November clash is three months into the season, things could snowball if the team isn't 100% focused from Week 1. 

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.