NFL Picks

Christian McCaffrey totaled 121 yards from scrimmage in Week 11 and now has a combined 1,439 yards rushing and receiving this year. No player in the NFL is as dangerous in both aspects of the game, and his production has improved as the weather has gotten colder, as he’s gone for 170+ total yards twice in the last five weeks. 

San Francisco sits near the bottom of most pass defense measurements, including worst in the NFL for total air yards allowed. Panthers’ receiver Xavier Legette caught four of eight balls for 83 yards last Sunday, with the bulk of those gains coming on a 36-yard over-the-top touchdown strike that sparked Carolina’s comeback in the third quarter. Legette leads the team in air yards per reception (18.0) and has produced six plays of 20-plus yards so far this season. He’s recorded a reception of at least 15 yards in five of his last seven games (5-2 O/U to this prop). He goes against a Niners secondary ranked 26th in DVOA when defending WR2s (55.2 yards per game to WR2s) at FTN. The 49ers will focus their attention on slowing down Carolina WR1 Tetairoa McMillan, leaving the 6-foot-4 Legette to go upstairs for big gains against a San Francisco starting secondary that runs no taller than six feet.

Although the Dallas Cowboys' defense will be more stable under new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, it's hard to overlook a unit that was gashed on the ground and allowed a bottom-five mark in yards per play last season. Patrick Mahomes will torch them on the fast track at Jerry World, boasting a deep arsenal that includes a now-healthy Rashee Rice. With George Pickens joining CeeDee Lamb to bolster the Cowboys’ receiving corps, Dak Prescott should also be able to air it out — even if much of the damage comes in classic garbage-time mop-up duty at AT&T Stadium. The Kansas City Chiefs' defense lost key veterans in the secondary, including corner Charvarius Ward and safety Justin Reid. While their younger replacements may eventually settle into Steve Spagnuolo's system, it could take some time for them to get fully up to speed.

The Cincinnati Bengals have lost their last four games against the Baltimore Ravens and are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head matchups with their AFC North rivals. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry spearheading a loaded offense, Baltimore's defense should also see a boost following the draft selections of safety Malaki Starks and edge rusher Mike Green. Back the Ravens to cover at home, where they went 5-3-1 ATS last season.

The Bears will have a new HC in Ben Johnson, and many people hold him in high regard for his ability to run an offense. He'll have a full complement of weapons to work with, including Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. And on defense, they should be stout in the trenches and on the outside. The Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl victory, could be in for a letdown this year, and while this November clash is three months into the season, things could snowball if the team isn't 100% focused from Week 1. 

The Colts defense was on the field for almost 43 minutes in that OT loss at Kansas City and now takes on a well-rested rival. Houston gets a mini bye after besting Buffalo on Thursday and could have QB1 C.J. Stroud back from concussion in Week 13. The Texans’ defense is powering the team’s three-game winning streak, holding four of its last five foes to 19 points or less. Indy couldn’t get RB Jonathan Taylor going against Kansas City and QB Daniel Jones looked more like his former self than the revived version we’ve seen so far with the Colts. Houston is a Top 10 run stop unit and sits tied for third in total sacks (33). An update on Stroud’s status will likely tip this spread to a field goal, so if you’re selling the Colts and buying the Texans’ streak, you’ll want to get that half-point hook on the road underdog.

J.J. McCarthy finished 12-for-19 passing for a measly 87 yards along with two interceptions in the road loss at Green Bay in Week 12. The Vikings has failed to crack 20 points in three straight games and now head to Lumen Field to take on another elite defense. The Seahawks got a bit of a scare in Tennessee on Sunday but still limited the Titans to 17 points on offense, checking them to 4.4 yards per play and sacking rookie QB Cam Ward four times. Sam Darnold takes on his former club and needs to be wary of the Vikings’ blitz-heavy schemes. That means quicker hits and lots of handoffs, with little time in the pocket for deeper strikes to develop. This total opened just shy of the key number of 44 points and is already sinking like a stone in the opening hours of action. Grab the Under 43.5 now, as the next stop is 42.5 with little reason to like the Over.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.