It was a 3-0 sweep on Monday for +5.5 units, and the Fronzy Frenzy show yesterday was another 10+ units. The weather is cooling down, but I'm heating up. The NHL predictions are rolling this week, with the Puck Props show up over 20 units.
The Capitals have the league's worst expected goals against per 60 at all strengths, so two-way scoring is coming in DC with a pair of backups in net. Meanwhile, Tyler Seguin and Artturi Lehkonen have point opportunities at prices north of a dollar.
These are my favorite NHL picks for Wednesday, October 14.
Today's top NHL predictions
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 / Over 6.5 |
52% |
 Tyler Seguin Over 0.5 points |
48% |
 Artturi Lehkonen Over 0.5 points |
44% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Pick #1: Canadiens/Capitals Over 6.5
The Washington Capitals are coming off a tough 4-2 loss to the Hurricanes in a divisional battle. This is also a team that enters tonight with the worst expected goals against per 60 minutes in hockey and will be rolling with a backup goalie.
The Montreal Canadiens can score in this matchup, but I worry about Jakob Dobes in net enough to bail on the moneyline and take the Over 6.5 instead. Dobes lost the starting job after allowing 11 goals over his last two games.
Jacob Fowler was always waiting in the shadows, and there's a ton of pressure on Dobes. If either team gets its power play going, this could turn into a track meet. Don't be surprised if this is a sloppy game after both teams played divisional matchups yesterday and had to travel.
Dustin Saracini breaks down the other side in his Canadiens vs. Capitals predictions.
- Matchup: Canadiens vs. Capitals
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Capital One Arena, Washington, DC
- TV: Prime
Pick #2: Tyler Seguin Over 0.5 points
Wyatt Johnston is out, and Tyler Seguin has scored in back-to-back games while playing a season-high 17:17 last night. He also found himself on the team's top power-play unit, which should make his price for a point shorter than even money.
Seguin started on the third line, but the Stars rotate their lines more than any other team in hockey. He spent most of his time centering Mikko Rantanen and Sam Steel. He should have plenty of scoring opportunities against a Colorado Avalanche team that plays an aggressive style and is starting backup Scott Wedgewood, who has appeared in just one game this season — a 7-3 win over the Flames.
With Roope Hintz also questionable, the minutes will be there for Seguin.
- Matchup: Stars vs. Avalanche
- Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
- TV: TNT
Pick #3: Artturi Lehkonen Over 0.5 points
I still can't get off an Artturi Lehkonen point prop, and with a 2.2x price, it's time to take another shot.
He has played 20:19 and 19:45 over his last two games, and with Nathan MacKinnon putting up multi-point outings in five of six games, the chances of Lehkonen getting on the scoresheet are better than 50% with that kind of TOI.
The Dallas Stars could struggle with the conditioning demands of this game. They're playing the second half of a back-to-back, with the added challenge of going to altitude. Wyatt Johnston was also dealing with an illness, and it's entirely possible it has spread through the locker room. It's a tough schedule spot that could see Dallas wear down late.
Dallas will also start backup Casey DeSmith, who has played just one game this season and now faces the league's highest-scoring offense.
- Matchup: Stars vs. Avalanche
- Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
- TV: TNT
- Top picks: 16-15, +4.7 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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