Senators vs Bruins Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Pasta Cooks Sens Defense

The Bruins have crushed on home ice this season, and David Pastrnak should be especially unforgiving tonight to a leaky Senators defense on no rest. See why our NHL picks are backing relentless pressure from the B's front line.

Last Updated: Mar 21, 2023 12:28 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
David Pastrnak Boston Bruins
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The Ottawa Senators and the Boston Bruins will meet for the fourth and final time this season at TD Garden on Tuesday night.

The Senators took each of the first two meetings between these Atlantic Division rivals before the Bruins won their most recent encounter, 3-1, on Feb. 20. 

Will Boston reward their backers once more as huge favorites? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Senators vs. Bruins on Tuesday, March 21.

Senators vs Bruins best odds

Senators vs Bruins picks and predictions

The Boston Bruins hit a rare bump in the road in their remarkable season earlier this month, losing three times in a four-game stretch. But they’ve rattled off three consecutive victories heading into this tilt, including a 7-0 thrashing of the Buffalo Sabres on Sunday.

The Bruins will host an Ottawa Senators team that only just snapped a five-game losing streak on Monday night against the sliding Pittsburgh Penguins. The Senators must turn around and visit the best team in the NHL on no rest, and that’s not exactly a recipe for success, especially on the defensive side of things.

Though it’s hard to recommend betting any NHL team at -300 or worse, there are still plenty of ways to wager on this contest if you expect Boston to prevail. I’m heading to the NHL player props market for my best bet in this game.

David Pastrnak is the engine that drives this Bruins offense. He leads his team in goals (six), assists (seven, tied with Charlie Coyle and Brad Marchand), and shots on goal (41) through nine games in March, maintaining his Bruins lead in all three areas on the season. I’ll focus on the latter category for my play in this one.

Pastrnak’s Over/Under for shots on goal this Tuesday night is 4.5, with the Over priced at -110. All in all, this line seems fair. He’s been listed at Over/Under 4.5 shots on goal in each of his last 10 contests, and he’s averaged 4.3 shots in that span. 

However, during his team’s three-game winning streak, Pastrnak has recorded no fewer than five shots on goal in each tilt. “Pasta” also has 17 shots over three meetings with the Senators this season. 

Ottawa allows 32.9 shots per game on the road, exactly one more per game compared to their overall figure. Pastrnak should secure his fair share tonight. 

My best bet: Pastrnak Over 4.5 shots on goal (-110)

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Senators vs Bruins moneyline analysis

As I stated above, it’s awfully difficult to make a case for the Senators tonight.

While Dylan Ferguson managed to steal a game for Ottawa by stopping 48 pucks in his first NHL action in five years last night, the Sens would seemingly have to turn back to the struggling Mads Sogaard in net this evening. Sogaard has been dreadful this month, going 1-4-1 with a 4.49 GAA and a .845 SV%. 

Aside from Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, and Claude Giroux, the Senators are lacking in reliable production. Their next-leading scorers — Alex DeBrincat and Drake Batherson — have a plus/minus of -27 and -35, respectively. These five players are the only ones on the team above 40 points on the campaign.

Linus Ullmark is expected between the pipes for Boston tonight, and while he doesn’t have back-to-back shutouts to boast like second-stringer Jeremy Swayman, Ullmark does lead the NHL in GAA (1.97) and SV% (.935) this year. He held Ottawa to one goal on 31 shots in his lone start against them this season.  

Trend bettors should note that the Senators are 17-37 in their last 54 against teams with winning records, and 23-52 in their last 75 games playing on no rest. The Bruins are 41-10 in their last 51 home games.

Senators vs Bruins Over/Under analysis

Regardless of who starts in net for either side tonight, the Bruins’ forwards are likely going to do most of the heavy lifting for Over bettors. 

This handicapper likes the chances of Pastrnak finding the twine, just not at -135. Patrice Bergeron has had a hot stick of late, scoring five times in March, and notching five points in his last two games alone. The final piece of the “Perfection Line,” Marchand, has five assists in his last two games as well. 

The hot-and-cold Jake DeBrusk has three goals and four assists this month, matched perfectly by Pavel Zacha. The scoring threats come from everywhere for the Bruins, who are second in goals per game this season (3.8).

Special teams could go a long way in sending this game Over, especially on the Senators’ side. They’ve scored at least one power-play goal in four straight, and face a Boston penalty kill that’s allowed six goals in its last 26 chances (23.1%).

Meanwhile, Ottawa’s penalty kill has allowed five power-play goals in its last 20 opportunities (25%).

The Over is 4-1 in the Senators’ last five in the third game of a 3-in-4 days situation, and 10-3 in their last 13 overall. The Over is 4-0-1 in the Bruins’ last five in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 days situation, and 4-1 in their last five overall.

Senators vs Bruins betting trend to know

The Senators are 4-14 in their last 18 meetings with the Bruins. Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs Bruins.

Senators vs Bruins game info

Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
Date: Tuesday, March 21, 2023
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET

Senators vs Bruins key injuries


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