Two first-place teams square off tonight as the Dallas Stars host the New York Rangers in what should be a tremendous game.
Historically, low-scoring affairs are in store when these two clubs square off as there have been five or fewer total goals scored in 14 of the past 20 meetings. NHL odds have the total set between 5.5 and 6.
Will Monday’s game feature another low-scoring outing, or can the goals pick up this time around? Find out in our free NHL picks for Rangers vs. Stars on Monday, November 20.
Rangers vs Stars odds
Rangers vs Stars predictions
New York Rangers goaltender Igor Shesterkin returned to the crease on Saturday and picked up right where he left off, stopping 30 of 33 shots for a .909 SV%. Over his past five starts, Shesterkin is 5-0 with a stellar .932 SV% and 1.96 GAA.
There were five or fewer total goals scored in three of those five outings. This good form is likely to continue against the Dallas Stars, a team Shesterkin has gone 4-0-1 against with a .913 SV% and 2.60 GAA in his career.
Additionally, New York’s blue line has been great this season, even in the absence of Adam Fox. At 5-on-5, the Rangers rank seventh in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
The same cannot be said of the offense, which ranks 30th in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5. Yes, the power play has been tremendous as it ranks second in PP%, but the Stars’ penalty kill — which also ranks second in the league — can offset that unit.
Dallas should also fare well at 5-on-5, given that it ranks 10th in xGA/60. Backing up this strong blue line is goaltender Jake Oettinger, who should have no issue keeping up with Shesterkin.
Through 12 starts, Oettinger is 8-3-1 with a .920 SV% and 2.50 GAA. Oettinger and the blue line are the primary reasons for the Stars’ successful start to the campaign, given that the offense (both on special teams and at 5-on-5) rank closer to the league average.
My best bet: Under 5.5 (+100 at FanDuel)
Not intended for use in MA.
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Rangers vs Stars same-game parlay
While I am higher on Dallas this season in the long run than I am on New York, I want to keep backing the Rangers until the wheels fall off. They enter this contest amid a dominant 11-game point streak, winning 10 of those outings straight up.
Considering this recent form, I priced the Stars closer to the -135/-140 range, which projects slight value on the Rangers in this spot. New York’s blue line and goaltending are every bit as good as Dallas' with the Stars’ main advantage being their depth and stronger overall two-way play at even strength.
However, the Rangers’ offense has been hot and should be able to also keep up with a Dallas group that nears the league average on both special teams and 5-on-5 play.
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Rangers vs Stars moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Stars opened as a -128 favorite and have since been bet up to -146. This line movement is likely due to two variables.
First, Fox's absence on New York’s blue line is obviously a big concern. Second, the Rangers aren’t going to keep winning forever and this streak will come to an end sooner rather than later.
With that said, this steep movement is an overreaction to those factors. That brings us to the total, which opened at 5.5 and remains at that number. In a Shesterkin/Oettinger battle, I would be shocked if this line moves up to six across the board.
Rangers vs Stars betting trend to know
There have been five or fewer total goals scored in 14 of the past 20 meetings between these two teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Rangers vs. Stars.
Rangers vs Stars game info
|Location:||American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX|
|Date:||Monday, November 20, 2023|
|Puck drop:||8:00 p.m. ET|
|TV:||Bally Sports Southwest, MSGSN|
Rangers vs Stars latest injuries
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