As Mats Sundin enters surgery to remove the horseshoe up his you know what, Toronto Maple Leafs fans are already lining up to pre-order their Gavin McKenna jerseys for the upcoming season.
But are Leafs fans jumping the gun, or is McKenna to Toronto a done deal?
We look at the possibility of who will go No. 1 overall to the Maple Leafs, with the 2026 NHL Draft odds from Kalshi — one of our best prediction market apps — listing McKenna as the heavy favorite with an 88% probably.
2026 NHL Draft odds (No. 1 pick): Who will Maple Leafs take first overall?
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi
Being a Maple Leafs fan is truly something else. One day, they are talking about Auston Matthews' next team odds. Next, they are trying to figure out who will be picked No. 1 overall.
Unless something disastrous happens — like McKenna knocking out another dork at a bar — the Penn State product is heading to Toronto.
Ivar Stenberg has been mentioned next to McKenna for the majority of the season, but their prices at Kalshi (88¢ to 10¢) shows as of now, this isn't up for debate.
NHL draft No. 1 overall favorites
Gavin McKenna
The 18-year-old from Whitehorse has been turning heads for years, and his name has always been involved in No. 1 pick talks. While not a true "consensus" pick, like Bedard or McDavid, McKenna has done nothing on the ice to make anyone doubt his potential.
After dominating the WHL, McKenna made the jump to the NCAA to play with the Penn State Nittany Lions. He transitioned seamlessly — putting up 51 points in 36 games. He's also a pass-first winger who fits perfectly with Matthews almost immediately.
McKenna's ceiling is higher than anyone in the draft, but his marketability is what can truly make him the golden boy for Toronto. Fans are in love with him, and he's already shown more personality than robots like Bedard or McDavid ever did in their younger years.
This market could see movement as we approach the June draft, but for now, McKenna is in the driver's seat.
Ivar Stenberg
The Swedish prospect might not have as high a ceiling as McKenna, but there's no doubt scouts believe he's more NHL-ready. Stenberg already has a year of pro hockey under his belt and has proven he's a winner after taking home gold at the World Juniors.
His two-way play far exceeds that of McKenna at this stage of their career, and Toronto will have a clearer picture of what they can expect with Stenberg. That said, it comes down to whether the Leafs believe adding the Swede can increase their chances of winning now.
The drama with Matthews isn't going away any time soon, and who they choose will surely impact how they value AM34 going forward.
NHL Draft No. 1 overall pick prediction
Pick: Gavin McKenna (88¢, -735)
Looking at the overall landscape of the Leafs and the NHL as a whole (more on that in a moment), Gavin McKenna is the clear choice here.
The Maple Leafs never looked like they were "one player away" last season, and even with their projected $22 million in cap space, there are too many holes to plug to help this sinking ship.
And that's not even talking about the off-ice positives. At the end of the day, the NHL is a business, and Toronto knows it will sell more McKenna jerseys than it ever would Stenberg ones.
McKenna gives them a true "face of the franchise" if Matthews decides to dip, and there may or may not be some upcoming free agent out of Edmonton who may love the idea of playing with a fellow Canadian in a couple of years...
2026 NHL Mock Draft
NHL mock drafts are talked about year-round, but the Draft Lottery helps us paint a clearer picture of how things will go. This is how Daily Faceoff sees the Top 5 going, along with their odds of being picked in that spot, according to Kalshi.
| Team | Player |  |
Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
1.  Toronto Maple Leafs |
Gavin McKenna | -735 | 88% |
2.  San Jose Sharks |
Ivar Stenberg | -354 | 78% |
3.  Vancouver Canucks |
Caleb Malhotra | +113 | 47% |
4.  Chicago Blackhawks |
Chase Reid | +245 | 29% |
5.  New York Rangers |
Keaton Verhoeff | +285 | 26% |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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