It’s an exciting five-game slate on the ice Wednesday, with Toronto Maple Leafs superstar Auston Matthews chasing his 50th goal of the season at Mullett Arena against his hometown Arizona Coyotes.
A bout featuring a pair of Stanley Cup odds favorites at Rogers Place between the Edmonton Oilers and visiting Boston Bruins is a tape-measuring matchup filled with stars, and the Chicago Blackhawks and Connor Bedard are a huge home underdog in the NHL odds against the visiting Philadelphia Flyers during the early window of games.
Here are our free NHL picks and NHL player props for all the action on Wednesday, February 21.
NHL prop picks and best bets for February 21
- Skinner Over 0.5 points (-115 at Bet99)
- McMann Over 1.5 shots (-150 at Bet99)
- Marchand Under 0.5 points (+130 at Bet99)
Picks made on February 21 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: Siding with Skinner
It’s been nine games since Buffalo Sabres winger Jeff Skinner returned from an upper-body injury, and he’s failed to score a goal and registered just a single assist during the scoring drought. The slump has also prolonged despite skating on the top line and No. 1 power-play unit, and his underlying numbers have actually been better.
Skinner was on the ice for 4.14 expected goals and 13.28 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes through the first 37 games of the season, and Buffalo cashed in to the tune of 4.36 goals per 60 with a 10.4 team shooting percentage. The Sabres have been even more dangerous across the past nine games with Skinner on the ice, as they’ve generated 4.25 xGF and 15.63 HDSC per 60, but an unsustainably low 5.3 team shooting percentage has led to just 2.11 goals per 60.
I also value these Jeff Skinner odds because the Montreal Canadiens sport a 28th-ranked 45.7 Corsi For percentage and allow the third-most expected goals per 60 (2.9) at five-on-five, and they also sport a 31st-ranked 74.0 penalty-kill percentage. This is an ideal matchup for Skinner to snap his scoring funk.
Jeff Skinner prop: Over 0.5 points (-115 at Bet99)
Prop bet #2: New McMann in town
The Arizona Coyotes have allowed the fourth-most shots per game (34.0) during their 4-14-2 slump, and that number climbs to a league-high 35.9 per game during their active 10-game losing streak. All the attention will be on Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews’ chase for 50 goals, but I am turning my attention to these Bobby McMann odds.
McMann capitalized on a recent promotion up the lineup, and he’s projected to remain in a middle-six role after spending the first 26 games of the season primarily playing on the fourth line and averaging just 9:10 of ice time per night. He’s piled up 13 shots on 24 attempts while playing 12:41 per over the past four games, and the shots and attempts totals rank second on the team behind Matthews.
Additionally, while McMann has only logged 344:14 minutes of ice time over the past two seasons, he still ranks fourth in shots (9.41) and sixth in attempts (15.86) per 60. He also averaged 3.36 shots per across 97 AHL games the past two seasons, so there are legs to his recent uptick in shot volume.
Bobby McMann prop: Over 1.5 shots (-150 at Bet99)
Prop bet #3: Marchand missing Pasta
The Edmonton Oilers have been a defensive juggernaut since head coach Kris Knoblauch took over with the fourth-fewest goals against per game (2.54) and a sixth-ranked 83.2 penalty-kill percentage. Add a fourth-ranked 54.4 Corsi For percentage while allowing the seventh-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.37) at five-on-five, and the weaknesses are few and far between. Of course, Edmonton improves to just 2.28 goals against and a 92.6 PK% on home ice.
So, with Boston Bruins winger Brad Marchand in a statistical decline for a third consecutive season, this is a ripe matchup for the downtick in scoring to continue. His 2.8 points per 60 minutes is his lowest mark since the 2015-16 campaign, and Marchand has also missed the scoresheet in five of his past eight games.
These Brad Marchand odds also caught my attention because he isn’t projected to skate with David Pastrnak at five-on-five on Wednesday, and Marchand’s numbers drop considerably when he isn’t playing with his longtime linemate. The duo has clicked for 3.15 goals per 60 minutes across 324:12 of shared 5-on-5 ice time, and Marchand has only been on the ice for 2.29 goals per 60 when he isn’t playing with Pastrnak. There’s also a notable drop from a shared 54.0 Corsi For percentage and 50.8 expected goals percentage to 47.7% and 47.2% marks when Marchand is without Pastrnak.
Brad Marchand prop: Under 0.5 points (+130 at Bet99)
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