The Florida Panthers are set to face the Edmonton Oilers in the 2024 Stanley Cup Final, with Florida possessing the home-ice advantage in this best-of-seven series. The Panthers are -128 moneyline favorites, while Edmonton is +110.
Let’s look into the matchup and the biggest X-factors for our NHL picks and Oilers vs. Panthers predictions.
Stanley Cup Final X-factors
The Edmonton Oilers are as top-heavy a team to make the Stanley Cup Final as any we've seen in recent years, while the Florida Panthers are impeccably well-balanced. We're fading a pair of Edmonton's best-known players in the Stanley Cup odds while banking on a certain Florida sniper to show up once more.
Barkov bites into McDavid's production
Edmonton forward Connor McDavid is the best hockey player on the planet, and the most skilled player of all time (sorry, Wayne). The recipe for beating the Oilers is simple: if you shut down McDavid, you will win this series.
Enter Aleksander Barkov, Florida’s strongest two-way forward. Barkov won the Selke Trophy this season for best defensive forward in the NHL, marking the second time he has won the prestigious award.
He is going to shadow McDavid all series, and I think Barkov will win that battle. In fact, McDavid has registered just three goals over his past seven games against the Panthers.
He has 10 points across those seven games for an average of 1.43 points per game, which is a noticeable dip from the 1.72 points per game that McDavid is averaging this postseason. That dip in production is partly due to Barkov, and if he holds McDavid in check, then Florida should be on its way to hoisting the Cup.
Connor McDavid prop: Fewer goals than Sam Reinhart (-120 at DraftKings)
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Reinhart takes the reins
Florida needs Sam Reinhart to continue to find the back of the net in this series to keep up with the likes of McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Zach Hyman. Reinhart is second on the team in goals this postseason with eight.
This success is likely to continue in the Cup Final, given that he leads Florida in individual expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60), both in all situations as well as when you isolate performance at 5-on-5. You need firepower to match Edmonton’s high-powered trio of forwards, and for the Panthers to do that, they will need Reinhart to bring his best into this round.
Finally, Reinhart ranks second among all skaters this postseason in high-danger shots on goal.
Sam Reinhart prop: Series leading scorer (+470 at FanDuel)
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Solving Skinner
That brings us to the guy I project Reinhart to score on: Stuart Skinner. He is the most obvious X-factor in this entire series, because we simply have no idea which version of Skinner we will see in the Cup Final.
He ended the Western Conference Final in tremendous form, allowing two or fewer goals in each of his past three starts. Skinner went 3-0 over that stretch with a commanding .947 SV% and 1.33 GAA. However, this is also the same guy who posted a fade-worthy .877 SV% and 3.22 GAA over his first eight starts of the postseason prior to (briefly) losing the starting role.
So, which version of Skinner are we going to get? That obviously remains to be seen, but I think it is far more likely that we see the latter against a deep Florida lineup.
Stanley Cup Final Prop: Panthers -1.5 games (+160 at FanDuel)
