The Battle of Alberta hits round two Friday night as the red-hot Edmonton Oilers visit the Calgary Flames.
The Oilers have been a strong NHL betting pick recently, winning seven of their last nine games, and find themselves in third place in the North Division—three points ahead of Calgary.
Despite that, NHL odds opened the Flames as a -120 home favorite with the total set at 6.5. shaded to the Under.
Here are our free NHL picks and predictions for Edmonton Oilers vs. Calgary Flames on Friday, February 19 (9:00 p.m. EST).
Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames betting preview
Injuries
Oilers: Zack Kassian F (Out), Oscar Klefbom D (Out).
Flames: Derek Ryan F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Oilers are 5-0 SU in their last five games with one day rest. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Flames.
NHL sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonCalgary opened -130 at FanDuel on Thursday night and steadily crept down to -116, where the moneyline is as of 6:15 p.m. ET. Betting splits bear out the line movement, with Edmonton attracting 70 percent of tickets and 73 percent of money. The total hasn't budged off the opener of 6.5 flat (-110 Over/Under), although ticket count and money are both 2/1 on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Moneyline pick
After starting the year 3-6 SU, Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers have ripped off seven wins in their last nine games and now find themselves in third place in the North Division.
Goalie Mike Smith has won three of his first four starts since returning from injury and should get the start with Friday’s match being the front end of a back-to-back. Smith returned five games ago and the Oilers’ defense has responded by allowing two goals or fewer in four of those five games. The Smith addition has sparked a team that was giving up 3.77 goals per game before the veteran goalie suited back up.
The Oilers’ offense hasn’t slowed down, however, as it has scored at least three goals in 12 straight games and sits fourth in the league in goals per game (3.50). McDavid has unsurprisingly led the charge offensively with nine multi-point games across his last 12 contests and the defense is even chipping as former Leafs defenseman Tyson Barrie is fourth on the team in scoring and has 12 points in his last 10 games.
The Flames are coming off a three-game stretch that saw them drop two of those contests and get outscored 6-11, while scoring just a single goal twice against one of the worst defenses in the league.
The Flames have allowed at least 33 shots in four straight games, including Vancouver’s 46-shot performance last Saturday. This month, the Flames have been allowing more shots at the net than they have put up, been outscored 24-28, have a negative expected goal differential and are scoring on high-danger chances at a below-average rate. This very average Calgary team is overpriced versus a red-hot Oilers squad, and despite being favored in 12 of its 16 games, Calgary is just 8-8 SU on the season.
PREDICTION: Edmonton ML (-105)
Over/Under pick
The Oilers have been scoring and allowing goals at an equally high rate this season. Edmonton is averaging 6.9 total goals per game this season, but recently, Edmonton has toned it down and is 2-5 O/U in its last seven. They may have scored three or more goals in 12 straight games, but the Oilers have actually been holding things down on the backend.
Edmonton hasn’t allowed more than two goals in five of its seven games this month and, as mentioned above, a lot of that praise can be put on Smith. Since returning on Feb 8, the veteran goalie has given up seven goals in four starts and is 1-3 O/U.
Calgary is 6-7-1 O/U on the year and is coming off a four-game series against the Canucks where they were held to a single goal twice versus the second-most generous team in the league. The Flames’ power play has been stagnant this month as well, going 4-for-33—is good for a Bottom 10 scoring rate of 12.1 percent.
Edmonton has seen 6.5-goal totals in 16 of its 18 games this year—including its previous 12 contests. The Oilers went on a streak of five straight Overs in late January but outside of that, this team is 3-8 O/U on totals of 6.5.
With Calgary being a below-average team in the scoring department and riding the excellent play of goalie Jacob Markstrom (bounceback game incoming), combined with the competent play in net for Edmonton, we’re riding the Under 6.5 on Friday.
PREDICTION: Under 6.5 (-120)
Oilers vs Flames betting card
- Edmonton ML (-105)
- Under 6.5 (-120)
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