The New Jersey Devils are 5-0 with Connor Hellebuyck between the pipes, and I'm backing them to pick up a significant divisional win over the Washington Capitals with my NHL moneyline picks.
Let's dive into my NHL picks for the slate on Thursday, Nov. 12.
NHL moneyline picks: Nov. 12
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Capitals vs  Devils |
59% |
 Canadiens vs  Bruins |
53% |
 Wild vs  Maple Leafs |
62% |
 Lightning vs  Blue Jackets |
52% |
 Avalanche vs  Senators |
52% |
 Red Wings vs  Panthers |
39% |
 Jets vs  Stars |
62% |
 Sabres vs  Blackhawks |
60% |
 Blues vs  Mammoth |
50% |
 Islanders vs  Kings |
55% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert NHL moneyline picks: Nov. 12
Capitals vs Devils pick: Devils
The New Jersey Devils rank top five in xGF% and GF% over the past month. Their process is really strong, and they own a perfect 5-0 record with Connor Hellebuyck between the pipes.
Canadiens vs Bruins pick: Bruins
The Boston Bruins lead the league with a 68% goal share at 5-on-5. It’ll be tough for the Montreal Canadiens to beat them in that game state. The Habs' proneness to penalties – only two teams have spent more time shorthanded – lowers their chances of making up ground on special teams.
Wild vs Maple Leafs pick: Wild
Anthony Stolarz gives the Toronto Maple Leafs a much better chance of hanging around than Sergei Bobrovsky, and their defensive metrics have quietly been improving.
I just don’t see enough offense to best the Minnesota Wild, who sit second in expected goals generated and feature an almost unstoppable top line.
Lightning vs Blue Jackets pick: Lightning
Jet Greaves has allowed more goals than expected in six of eight starts. That’s not good news going up against the Tampa Bay Lightning, who sit fifth in shots, sixth in goals, and eighth in shooting percentage.
Avalanche vs Senators pick: Avalanche
The Colorado Avalanche are tied for the league lead with 4.11 goals per game. I don't think Sam Ersson (.883 save percentage) will be the one to slow them down.
Red Wings vs Panthers pick: Red Wings
The Detroit Red Wings are quietly outperforming the Florida Panthers – in terms of process and results – over the last month. Factor in that no team has spent more time shorthanded than the Panthers, and there's real upside potential with Detroit.
Jets vs Stars pick: Stars
The Winnipeg Jets have played much better since putting Dawson Mercer and Brayden Yager into the mix up front. They still sit 25th in finishing and 26th in goals per game, which will make generating offense a struggle against an elite Dallas Stars defense.
Sabres vs Blackhawks pick: Sabres
Back-to-back set or not, I want no part of the Chicago Blackhawks right now. They've controlled just 36% of the expected goals during their six-game losing skid while looking completely lost.
The Buffalo Sabres should control a lot of this game, and I trust their talent gap to shine through.
Blues vs Mammoth pick: Blues
Joel Hofer has posted a +4.9 GSAx this season while Karel Vejmelka comes in at -8.1 GSAx, the second lowest in the NHL. The St. Louis Blues hold a huge edge in goal and they didn’t play last night. The Utah Mammoth are also dealing with injuries to multiple key forwards.
Islanders vs Kings pick: Kings
The Los Angeles Kings have done a better job of controlling games lately, and help is on the way. Mats Zuccarello is back, and Kevin Fiala playing is also a possibility, adding much-needed skill to the mix.
Today's NHL moneyline combo
Devils moneyline
Stars moneyline
Kings moneyline
New Jersey and Dallas are high-end teams with home-ice advantage, and Los Angeles' process suggests better results are ahead. Getting key bodies back will certainly help.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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