It's the biggest test of the year for Toronto in what has been a disaster of a homestand, and while they may not win outright, I'm backing them to keep it close and for William Nylander to do damage in my Wild vs. Maple Leafs prediction.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are large 39% underdogs at Scotiabank Arena against the Minnesota Wild - puck drop is set for 7 p.m. ET.
Tap into my NHL picks for Thursday, Nov. 12.
Wild vs Maple Leafs prediction: Maple Leafs +1.5
It's put-up-or-shut-up time for the Toronto Maple Leafs, who have lost four straight games at home, with two remaining in their homestand. However, we did catch a glimpse of what this team can be against the Colorado Avalanche. Gavin McKenna and Easton Cowan played some of the best hockey of their young career, while Darryn Raddysh scored his first as a Leaf.
With the season slipping away already for Toronto, they'll need to clean things up defensively and put their best foot forward against one of the best teams in hockey in the Minnesota Wild. This is the biggest game of the season in Toronto, expect the Leafs to show up.
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Wild vs Maple Leafs combo
I'm expecting a tight, low-scoring battle here, with both teams keeping the quality chances to a minimum. The Wild are one of the more defensively sound teams in hockey, with Jesper Wallstedt leading the league in goals saved above expected (15.9).
William Nylander is going to be right in the thick of things after hearing it from the media, and has covered this number in three of his last four games.
Wild vs Maple Leafs combo
- Under 6.5
- Leafs +1.5
- William Nylander 3+ shots on goal
TOP PICK
Wild vs Maple Leafs player prop: William Nylander 3+ shots
I get that Nylander is under fire in the media; he didn't fire off a single shot against the Avalanche and heard it in his postgame media scrum. But if you zoom out, this number needs to be taken advantage of. He's the bumper on the power play against a team averaging 8.8 minutes of penalties per game, and will need to be a catalyst for a down-and-out Toronto team.
COVERS INTEL: Nylander is averaging 5.4 shot attempts per game, and has 31 medium-danger unblocked shot attempts - good for top 30 in the NHL. Let's see a bounce-back from Nylander tonight.
Wild vs Maple Leafs goal scorer: Kirill Kaprizov
Kirill Kaprizov is leading the NHL in expected goals and has scored three in his last five games. Against a struggling, banged-up defense that's allowed 14 goals over its last three games, I'm giving the Russian the upper hand here. The Wild's eighth-ranked power play will cash at least once tonight, let's book it.
- Top picks: 13-13, +0.92 units
- Combos: 9-16, +5.82 units
Wild vs Maple Leafs odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Moneyline: Wild 62% | Maple Leafs 39%
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (49%) | Under 6.5 (52%)
- Spread: Wild -1.5 (40%) | Maple Leafs +1.5 (61%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Wild vs Maple Leafs trend
The Over is 4-0 in the Maple Leafs' last four vs. a team with a winning record. Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Wild vs Maple Leafs
| Location | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario |
| Date | Thursday, Nov. 12, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet |
Wild vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
Check out our NHL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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