Unders have been on a tear in the NHL over the last week. That's hurt the stacks, the bottom line, and the NHL picks in general.
It's still a great 11-game slate with some great double-stack prices in great matchups that are hard to ignore.
The Wild's top line will stack points vs. the Maple Leafs, the Brayden Point injury is opening up more opportunities for others in Tampa, and the Sabres are in a great bounce-back spot tonight vs. the Blackhawks.
These are my favorite NHL predictions for Thursday, Nov. 12.
Today's top NHL predictions
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Joel Eriksson Ek Over 0.5 assists |
43% |
 Cirelli + Hagel Over 0.5 points each |
36% |
 Quinn + Ostlund Over 0.5 points each |
37% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Pick #1: Joe Eriksson Ek Over 0.5 assists
The Toronto Maple Leafs are a terrible team that hasn't won a game in November. They have the third-worst goals-against average at 5-on-5, and the once-great penalty kill has allowed a goal in seven of its last eight games.
I'll happily take the longest assist price of the Minnesota Wild's big four, who account for 60% of the team's offense and have a better xGoal% as a group than Draisaitl, McDavid and Podkolzin this season.
Joel Eriksson Ek was held off the scoresheet last game, but that's the Nick Suzuki effect. He should have plenty of opportunities to take advantage of Toronto's injured defense and poor goaltending.
I have his assist probability at 47%.
- Matchup: Wild vs. Maple Leafs
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario
- TV: Sportsnet
Pick #2: Anthony Cirelli + Brandon Hagel Over 0.5 points each
With Brayden Point out, the Tampa Bay Lightning scored eight goals. Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel skated on the top line alongside Nikita Kucherov and combined for six points last night. They might not be correlated on PP1, but this power play hasn't been great lately anyway.
If the Blue Jackets start Jet Greaves, things get even better for us. He's losing playing time to Cam Talbot for a reason and gave up five goals in his last start.
This combo should be closer to even money if both skaters remain alongside Kucherov and play 17+ minutes.
- Matchup: Lightning vs. Blue Jackets
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Nationwide Arena, Columbus, Ohio
- TV: ESPN+
Pick #3: Jack Quinn + Noah Ostlund Over 0.5 points
The Buffalo Sabres got waxed by the Lightning last night but have a get-right spot against a very bad Chicago Blackhawks team tonight.
Jack Quinn and Noah Ostlund are still playing 18+ minutes per game and skating on PP1. They stacked together last night and should remain together, with Zach Benson typically being the winger who gets shuffled around when Lindy Ruff looks to generate more offense.
The Hawks gave up nine goals in their last game and have lost seven straight against the Sabres, who should have plenty of motivation after last night's embarrassment. Getting a top-line, PP1-correlated pair at 2.4x or better in this spot is value.
- Matchup: Sabres vs. Blackhawks
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: United Center, Chicago, Ill.
- TV: ESPN+
- Top picks: 36-46, +0.75 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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